Belfast North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast North: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2017: Nigel Dodds  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 68,249
Turnout: 67.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
DUP21,24046.2%
SF19,15941.7%
MIN2,4755.4%
SDLP2,0584.5%
Green6441.4%
OTH3600.8%
LIB Majority2,0814.5%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 50%
50% Leave

Belfast North ranks #417 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Belfast North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Belfast North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Belfast North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Belfast North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Belfast North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Belfast NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey20141013350400105372
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry20142149828500207186
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill201425211633600244219
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney20142109627900203183
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill201490304480093330
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge201421710029000210189
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe201422910530600222200
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley201426512235300256231
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown201421710028900210189
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill201486294300090318
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole201489294440092327
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley201490304480093330
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse201482274070085300
BelfastArdoyne20146215632100793445
BelfastBallysillan20145714329600731410
BelfastBellevue201418528642700433395
BelfastCavehill201415824536500371338
BelfastChichester Park201419730445400461420
BelfastCliftonville20146215632200797447
BelfastDuncairn201423636554500554505
BelfastForth River2014968352500405583
BelfastFortwilliam201417026339300399364
BelfastInnisfayle201418728843100438399
BelfastLegoniel20146516333600831467
BelfastNew Lodge20145614129200721405
BelfastShankill201412110566500513737
BelfastWater Works20146516333600831466
BelfastWoodvale2014998554100417600

Belfast NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,01962203090064228683
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry9991456619300140126670
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill367532471005146245
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney201291339002825134
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,579963247800993521,057
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,990288133384002782511,334
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,101304139406002942651,408
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,424351162467003393061,625
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,2601828424300176159844
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,09612743634001334691,406
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,16113143655001364831,448
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,18113344661001374871,462
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,98212140600001254421,328
BelfastArdoyne3,62785213439001,0856092,431
BelfastBallysillan3,34278196405001,0005612,240
BelfastBellevue3,440247382570005785282,305
BelfastCavehill2,946211327488004964521,974
BelfastChichester Park3,659263406606006165612,452
BelfastCliftonville3,64585214441001,0916122,443
BelfastDuncairn4,398315488728007406752,946
BelfastForth River741282415400119171496
BelfastFortwilliam3,169227351525005334862,122
BelfastInnisfayle3,474250385576005855332,329
BelfastLegoniel3,80289223460001,1376392,548
BelfastNew Lodge3,29877193400009875542,211
BelfastShankill1,8787162391003024331,259
BelfastWater Works3,80089223460001,1376382,547
BelfastWoodvale2,97311397619004776861,992
 Total68,5524,2504,62712,4020012,88311,77745,939

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Belfast NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,0140944701016255683
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry99502934901125030669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365011128049111245
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200067002506134
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572014692016251851,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981059694023498611,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092062733024526641,409
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413072845028607731,625
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,25403743901431538843
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,0870199180213351131,406
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,1510199480213441171,449
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,1710209570223471171,463
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,9730188690203161071,330
BelfastArdoyne3,6110958120271,3501472,431
BelfastBallysillan3,3270877490251,2441352,240
BelfastBellevue3,42501701,0520359211272,305
BelfastCavehill2,93301459010307891091,974
BelfastChichester Park3,64301811,1190379801352,452
BelfastCliftonville3,6290958160271,3571482,443
BelfastDuncairn4,37902171,3440451,1771632,946
BelfastForth River7380112500718741496
BelfastFortwilliam3,15501569690328481172,122
BelfastInnisfayle3,45901711,0630359311282,328
BelfastLegoniel3,7850998510291,4151542,548
BelfastNew Lodge3,2830867390251,2281332,211
BelfastShankill1,8700286350184751041,260
BelfastWater Works3,7830998510281,4151542,547
BelfastWoodvale2,9600431,0050287511651,992
 Total68,55202,05821,245064419,1602,83745,939

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast North

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast North.

Belfast NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,0140944701016255683
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry99502934901125030669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365011128049111245
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200067002506134
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572014692016251851,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981059694023498611,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092062733024526641,409
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413072845028607731,625
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,25403743901431538843
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,0870199180213351131,406
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,1510199480213441171,449
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,1710209570223471171,463
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,9730188690203161071,330
BelfastArdoyne3,6110958120271,3501472,431
BelfastBallysillan3,3270877490251,2441352,240
BelfastBellevue3,42501701,0520359211272,305
BelfastCavehill2,93301459010307891091,974
BelfastChichester Park3,64301811,1190379801352,452
BelfastCliftonville3,6290958160271,3571482,443
BelfastDuncairn4,37902171,3440451,1771632,946
BelfastForth River7380112500718741496
BelfastFortwilliam3,15501569690328481172,122
BelfastInnisfayle3,45901711,0630359311282,328
BelfastLegoniel3,7850998510291,4151542,548
BelfastNew Lodge3,2830867390251,2281332,211
BelfastShankill1,8700286350184751041,260
BelfastWater Works3,7830998510281,4151542,547
BelfastWoodvale2,9600431,0050287511651,992
 Total68,55202,05821,245064419,1602,83745,944

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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