Belfast South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast South: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2017: Emma Little Pengelly  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 66,105
Turnout: 66.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
DUP13,29930.4%
SDLP11,30325.9%
MIN7,94618.2%
SF7,14316.3%
Green2,2415.1%
UUP1,5273.5%
OTH2460.6%
LIB Majority1,9964.6%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 69%
31% Leave

Belfast South ranks #613 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Belfast South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Belfast South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Belfast South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Belfast South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Belfast South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Belfast SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2014185445403047321472
BelfastBlackstaff20141222392020123211535
BelfastCentral20142003933320202347879
BelfastCregagh201435048417338074122
BelfastFinaghy2014165398361042287422
BelfastHillfoot201436750818240077723
BelfastMalone2014171412374044297437
BelfastMerok201436250118039076723
BelfastMusgrave2014185444403047320471
BelfastOrmeau20141142231880115197499
BelfastRavenhill201434047016937072022
BelfastRosetta201439855119743084325
BelfastStranmillis20141422792360143246624
BelfastUpper Malone2014172415377044299440
BelfastWindsor20141883683110189325824
BelfastWoodstock201434047116937072122
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill201414329128500127439
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill201412124624100107371
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East201413928427800124427
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West201413227026400118407
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally201412425224700110379
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken201413527526900120414
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda20141082212160096332

Belfast SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,6861794303890453104561,809
BelfastBlackstaff4,07823445838702364051,0262,746
BelfastCentral6,52737473462003776481,6424,395
BelfastCregagh1,3401752428619037011903
BelfastFinaghy2,6361754223830453044471,776
BelfastHillfoot1,612210291104230445131,086
BelfastMalone2,7291814363960473154631,838
BelfastMerok000000000
BelfastMusgrave2,9431964704270503394991,981
BelfastOrmeau3,80221842736002203779562,558
BelfastRavenhill2,810366506182400775241,893
BelfastRosetta3,291429594212460908272,216
BelfastStranmillis4,76127353645302744721,1983,206
BelfastUpper Malone2,7501824404000473174661,852
BelfastWindsor6,28636170659703636241,5824,233
BelfastWoodstock3,546461639229500978302,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,170163331324001444991,461
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,834138280274001224221,236
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,706128261255001143921,150
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,012150307300001344631,354
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,877141286281001254311,264
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,870140285279001254301,259
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,645123252246001093781,108
 Total64,9114,9979,3337,1841781,7048,46011,85543,711

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Belfast SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,735555026110652623151,810
BelfastBlackstaff4,1537258277202703427092,747
BelfastCentral6,6471149321,23604315471,1354,395
BelfastCregagh1,365532882290133127902
BelfastFinaghy2,684534926010642573091,776
BelfastHillfoot1,6426434627601537691,086
BelfastMalone2,779555096210672663201,838
BelfastMerok000000000
BelfastMusgrave2,997605486700712863441,979
BelfastOrmeau3,8726754271802513186612,557
BelfastRavenhill2,862112602481026654161,891
BelfastRosetta3,352131707562031767192,217
BelfastStranmillis4,8498368190203133998283,206
BelfastUpper Malone2,801565136270672683221,853
BelfastWindsor6,4021108971,19004155271,0934,232
BelfastWoodstock3,611141760606033826212,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,210503975300181223441,461
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,868423364480151032921,236
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,73739313417014962711,150
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,049463684900171133201,354
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,912433434590161062981,265
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,904433424560161062971,260
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,67538302401014922611,108
 Total64,9111,52711,30213,30302,2427,1458,19143,711

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast South

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast South.

Belfast SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,735555026110652623151,810
BelfastBlackstaff4,1537258277202703427092,747
BelfastCentral6,6471149321,23604315471,1354,395
BelfastCregagh1,365532882290133127902
BelfastFinaghy2,684534926010642573091,776
BelfastHillfoot1,6426434627601537691,086
BelfastMalone2,779555096210672663201,838
BelfastMerok000000000
BelfastMusgrave2,997605486700712863441,979
BelfastOrmeau3,8726754271802513186612,557
BelfastRavenhill2,862112602481026654161,891
BelfastRosetta3,352131707562031767192,217
BelfastStranmillis4,8498368190203133998283,206
BelfastUpper Malone2,801565136270672683221,853
BelfastWindsor6,4021108971,19004155271,0934,232
BelfastWoodstock3,611141760606033826212,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,210503975300181223441,461
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,868423364480151032921,236
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,73739313417014962711,150
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,049463684900171133201,354
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,912433434590161062981,265
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,904433424560161062971,260
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,67538302401014922611,108
 Total64,9111,52711,30213,30302,2427,1458,19143,710

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)