Belfast West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast West: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2017: Paul Maskey  (SF)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 62,423
Turnout: 65.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
SF27,10766.7%
DUP5,45513.4%
MIN4,13210.2%
SDLP2,8607.0%
OTH1,0792.7%
NAT Majority21,65253.3%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 74%
26% Leave

Belfast West ranks #631 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Belfast West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Belfast West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Belfast West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Belfast West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Belfast West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Belfast WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown201401810001,234399
BelfastBallygomartin201411710164300497714
BelfastBallymurphy201401950001,332431
BelfastBeechmount201402200001,501486
BelfastCentral20142003933320202347879
BelfastClonard20141159963000486699
BelfastCollin Glen201402220001,514490
BelfastDunmurry2014772540001,210254
BelfastFalls20141049056800438630
BelfastFalls Park201401820001,240401
BelfastForth River2014968352500405583
BelfastLadybrook2014702320001,106232
BelfastLagmore20141053490001,663349
BelfastPoleglass2014862850001,360286
BelfastShankill201412110566500513737
BelfastShaw's Road201401970001,344435
BelfastStewartstown2014712370001,128237
BelfastTurf Lodge201401930001,318427
BelfastTwinbrook2014672220001,056222
BelfastWoodvale2014998554100417600

Belfast WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,15002040001,3894492,042
BelfastBallygomartin3,903143123785006078722,530
BelfastBallymurphy3,40002190001,4994852,203
BelfastBeechmount3,83102480001,6895472,484
BelfastCentral1781019160101743115
BelfastClonard3,823140121769005948542,478
BelfastCollin Glen3,86502500001,7045512,505
BelfastDunmurry2,825792590001,2342591,831
BelfastFalls3,445127110693005347692,233
BelfastFalls Park3,16602050001,3964512,052
BelfastForth River2,4459078492003795461,585
BelfastLadybrook3,398943120001,4853122,203
BelfastLagmore5,1101414690002,2344693,313
BelfastPoleglass4,1801163830001,8273842,710
BelfastShankill2,1537968433003344801,394
BelfastShaw's Road3,43002220001,5124892,223
BelfastStewartstown3,465953180001,5143182,245
BelfastTurf Lodge3,36502170001,4834812,181
BelfastTwinbrook3,246902980001,4182982,104
BelfastWoodvale307111062004869200
 Total62,6851,2154,1333,25001022,8979,12640,631

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Belfast WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,137014188001,5572562,042
BelfastBallygomartin3,887085976009714982,530
BelfastBallymurphy3,386015295001,6802772,204
BelfastBeechmount3,8150172107001,8933132,485
BelfastCentral17701331004624114
BelfastClonard3,807084956009514882,479
BelfastCollin Glen3,8490173108001,9103142,505
BelfastDunmurry2,813017993001,4111481,831
BelfastFalls3,431076862008564392,233
BelfastFalls Park3,153014288001,5642572,051
BelfastForth River2,435054612006083121,586
BelfastLadybrook3,3840216111001,6981782,203
BelfastLagmore5,0890325167002,5532673,312
BelfastPoleglass4,1630265137002,0892192,710
BelfastShankill2,144047538005352741,394
BelfastShaw's Road3,416015496001,6952792,224
BelfastStewartstown3,4510220113001,7301822,245
BelfastTurf Lodge3,351015094001,6622752,181
BelfastTwinbrook3,2320206106001,6211702,103
BelfastWoodvale3060777007739200
 Total62,68502,8615,4550027,1075,20940,631

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast West

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast West.

Belfast WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,137014188001,5572562,042
BelfastBallygomartin3,887085976009714982,530
BelfastBallymurphy3,386015295001,6802772,204
BelfastBeechmount3,8150172107001,8933132,485
BelfastCentral17701331004624114
BelfastClonard3,807084956009514882,479
BelfastCollin Glen3,8490173108001,9103142,505
BelfastDunmurry2,813017993001,4111481,831
BelfastFalls3,431076862008564392,233
BelfastFalls Park3,153014288001,5642572,051
BelfastForth River2,435054612006083121,586
BelfastLadybrook3,3840216111001,6981782,203
BelfastLagmore5,0890325167002,5532673,312
BelfastPoleglass4,1630265137002,0892192,710
BelfastShankill2,144047538005352741,394
BelfastShaw's Road3,416015496001,6952792,224
BelfastStewartstown3,4510220113001,7301822,245
BelfastTurf Lodge3,351015094001,6622752,181
BelfastTwinbrook3,2320206106001,6211702,103
BelfastWoodvale3060777007739200
 Total62,68502,8615,4550027,1075,20940,632

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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