Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Overview

 Prediction: CON gain from SNP 

MP at 2015: Calum Kerr  (SNP)
County/Area: Borders (East Scotland)
Electorate: 74,179
Turnout: 74.2%
2015
Votes
2015
Share
Predicted
Votes
SNP20,14536.6%29.8%
CON19,81736.0%52.8%
LIB10,29418.7%12.9%
LAB2,7004.9%3.9%
UKIP1,3162.4%0.0%
Green6311.1%0.0%
OTH1350.2%0.6%
NAT Majority3280.6%Pred Maj 23.0%
Chance of
winning
SNP
11%
CON
88%
LIB
0%
LAB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk constituency, the 'East Scotland' region and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatRegionAll GB
Party WinnerNATNATCON
Economic Position2° Right12° Left
National Position11° Int16° Int1° Int
EU Leave %43%39%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health52%54%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education34%38%39%
Good Job43%49%51%
High SEC56%57%51%
Average Age52.248.748.5
ABC1 Class44%52%53%

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk ranks #516 for "Leave", #302 for "Right" and #511 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk at the general election of 2015. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2015, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Scottish BordersEast Berwickshire2012730435226005411,505
Scottish BordersGalashiels and District2012386273417001,2581,323
Scottish BordersHawick and Denholm2012427147263003811,839
Scottish BordersHawick and Hermitage20125131915250462391,384
Scottish BordersJedburgh and District20121,11516938800759807
Scottish BordersKelso and District20121,24007290116413742
Scottish BordersLeaderdale and Melrose2012441225439005581,925
Scottish BordersMid Berwickshire20121,1790635001,133534
Scottish BordersSelkirkshire20127990649006711,172
Scottish BordersTweeddale East201292957161400990645

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Scottish BordersEast Berwickshire8,3641,318785408009772,7176,205
Scottish BordersGalashiels and District11,442896634968002,9203,0718,489
Scottish BordersHawick and Denholm7,468774266477006913,3335,541
Scottish BordersHawick and Hermitage6,8999063379270814222,4455,118
Scottish BordersJedburgh and District7,1291,821276634001,2401,3185,289
Scottish BordersKelso and District7,8982,24301,31902107471,3425,861
Scottish BordersLeaderdale and Melrose8,522777397774009833,3926,323
Scottish BordersMid Berwickshire8,0752,02901,093001,9509195,991
Scottish BordersSelkirkshire7,6871,38501,125001,1632,0315,704
Scottish BordersTweeddale East69512879840013689516
 Total74,17912,2772,7747,809029111,22920,65755,037

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkEst. 2015 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Scottish BordersEast Berwickshire8,3642,527443989157831,993156,207
Scottish BordersGalashiels and District11,4422,0768571,396162713,905218,488
Scottish BordersHawick and Denholm7,4682,041375732184362,156155,539
Scottish BordersHawick and Hermitage6,8991,959319990144901,601155,118
Scottish BordersJedburgh and District7,1292,210156901126381,848105,289
Scottish BordersKelso and District7,8982,566451,4041161361,58695,862
Scottish BordersLeaderdale and Melrose8,5221,9933031,223171772,533236,323
Scottish BordersMid Berwickshire8,0752,427291,216120432,14885,991
Scottish BordersSelkirkshire7,6871,8481271,331128492,201195,703
Scottish BordersTweeddale East69516846111971731515
 Total74,17919,8152,70010,2931,31763020,14413655,037

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk.

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Scottish BordersEast Berwickshire8,3643,575355667001,570396,206
Scottish BordersGalashiels and District11,4423,479687941003,327548,488
Scottish BordersHawick and Denholm7,4682,930301494001,779365,540
Scottish BordersHawick and Hermitage6,8992,905256668001,252375,118
Scottish BordersJedburgh and District7,1293,039125608001,488295,289
Scottish BordersKelso and District7,8983,584361,022001,187335,862
Scottish BordersLeaderdale and Melrose8,5223,104243825002,102496,323
Scottish BordersMid Berwickshire8,0753,37223826001,740305,991
Scottish BordersSelkirkshire7,6872,788102959001,812415,702
Scottish BordersTweeddale East6952603777001383515
 Total74,17929,0362,1657,0870016,39535155,034

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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