Bexhill and Battle: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bexhill and Battle: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Huw Merriman  (CON)
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 78,512
Turnout: 75.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,85462.0%58.2%
LAB14,68924.7%25.1%
LIB4,4857.5%7.5%
UKIP2,0063.4%5.7%
Green1,4382.4%2.9%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority22,16537.3%Pred Maj 33.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
94%
LAB
6%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bexhill and Battle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bexhill and Battle constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right4° Right
National Position8° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health43%49%48%
UK Born94%88%88%
Good Education38%43%39%
Good Job53%56%51%
High SEC56%57%51%
Average Age55.449.248.5
ABC1 Class56%60%53%

Bexhill and Battle ranks #202 for "Leave", #232 for "Right" and #174 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bexhill and Battle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Bexhill and Battle: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Bexhill and Battle

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Bexhill and Battle at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Bexhill and Battle. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Bexhill and BattleActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
RotherBattle Town20151,1994692,615000
RotherCentral20151,5591,3122265580781
RotherCollington20151,82028004172822,529
RotherCrowhurst201577126030722800
RotherDarwell20152,6323475645745100
RotherEwhurst and Sedlescombe20151,1310363000
RotherKewhurst20152,956663095700
RotherOld Town20151,229367645510229441
RotherRother Levels20152,938079275000
RotherSackville20151,451543056301,306
RotherSalehurst20152,0342512,381000
RotherSidley20151,3381,32105730565
RotherSt Marks20151,819318060802,120
RotherSt Michaels2015789410061301,633
RotherSt Stephens20151,7985633797540535
RotherTicehurst and Etchingham20153,101057105350
WealdenCross in Hand / Five Ashes2015-100000
WealdenHeathfield East2015-100000
WealdenHeathfield North and Central20157,358915001,0940
WealdenHerstmonceux20159970051400
WealdenNinfield and Hooe with Wartling2015-100000
WealdenPevensey and Westham20156,2111,4319404,0285970
WealdenPolegate North20151,3922968511,3212161,461

Bexhill and BattleTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
RotherBattle Town4,1348733421,9050003,120
RotherCentral4,3561,15597216741405793,287
RotherCollington3,38787313402001351,2132,555
RotherCrowhurst2,077772260307228001,567
RotherDarwell4,1111,76523337838534203,103
RotherEwhurst and Sedlescombe2,0241,15603710001,527
RotherKewhurst3,6531,7813990577002,757
RotherOld Town3,0678322484363451552982,314
RotherRother Levels3,6371,8000485460002,745
RotherSackville3,497991371038508922,639
RotherSalehurst3,6141,1891471,3920002,728
RotherSidley4,5361,2061,191051705093,423
RotherSt Marks3,5471,001175033501,1672,678
RotherSt Michaels3,846665345051701,3762,903
RotherSt Stephens3,8231,28840327154003832,885
RotherTicehurst and Etchingham3,6432,0270373035002,750
WealdenCross in Hand / Five Ashes1,9341,460000001,460
WealdenHeathfield East1,9351,460000001,460
WealdenHeathfield North and Central6,3503,7654680056004,793
WealdenHerstmonceux2,2511,12100578001,699
WealdenNinfield and Hooe with Wartling1,9401,464000001,464
WealdenPevensey and Westham7,4322,6386083991,71125405,610
WealdenPolegate North31001013
 Total78,79731,2836,2966,4847,1931,7966,41859,470

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Bexhill and BattleEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
RotherBattle Town4,1191,428794821215603,120
RotherCentral4,3401,5121,3392701075903,287
RotherCollington3,3751,63269098746102,555
RotherCrowhurst2,069970382148392901,568
RotherDarwell4,0961,9996112226420603,102
RotherEwhurst and Sedlescombe2,0171,118199157223201,528
RotherKewhurst3,6401,8795501401731602,758
RotherOld Town3,0561,1976962361107502,314
RotherRother Levels3,6242,005389242852402,745
RotherSackville3,4841,4509071611041602,638
RotherSalehurst3,6011,522550607143602,729
RotherSidley4,5201,5111,577772233503,423
RotherSt Marks3,5341,78674144961002,677
RotherSt Michaels3,8321,3441,2511401501802,903
RotherSt Stephens3,8091,5989011801792702,885
RotherTicehurst and Etchingham3,6302,0482851991420302,749
WealdenCross in Hand / Five Ashes1,9271,2671481172701,460
WealdenHeathfield East1,9281,2901113571801,461
WealdenHeathfield North and Central6,3273,5346812494228604,792
WealdenHerstmonceux2,2431,194287751004301,699
WealdenNinfield and Hooe with Wartling1,9331,2001716861801,463
WealdenPevensey and Westham7,4053,3691,42830336814205,610
WealdenPolegate North32100003
 Total78,79736,85514,6894,4832,0051,437059,470

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bexhill and Battle

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bexhill and Battle.

Bexhill and BattlePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
RotherBattle Town4,1191,3128068219572143,120
RotherCentral4,3401,3891,35227018576153,287
RotherCollington3,3751,5377009813474122,555
RotherCrowhurst2,069912388148763771,568
RotherDarwell4,0961,883623222137222143,101
RotherEwhurst and Sedlescombe2,0171,061205157584071,528
RotherKewhurst3,6401,77656114023830132,758
RotherOld Town3,0561,11170523616587112,315
RotherRother Levels3,6241,90340024215038132,746
RotherSackville3,4841,35291716116630122,638
RotherSalehurst3,6011,4205616077850132,729
RotherSidley4,5201,3831,5907730453163,423
RotherSt Marks3,5341,6867514415924122,676
RotherSt Michaels3,8321,2361,26214021933132,903
RotherSt Stephens3,8091,49091218024742132,884
RotherTicehurst and Etchingham3,6301,94529619979217132,749
WealdenCross in Hand / Five Ashes1,9271,21315411413571,461
WealdenHeathfield East1,9281,23511735412671,461
WealdenHeathfield North and Central6,3273,355700249155311224,792
WealdenHerstmonceux2,2431,131294751405281,700
WealdenNinfield and Hooe with Wartling1,9331,14517768412671,464
WealdenPevensey and Westham7,4053,1601,450303500171265,610
WealdenPolegate North32100003
 Total78,79734,63714,9224,4833,4081,74627559,471

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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