Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Nick Gibb  (CON)
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 75,827
Turnout: 67.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,27659.0%55.2%
LAB12,78224.9%25.3%
LIB3,3526.5%6.5%
MIN2,0884.1%4.1%
UKIP1,8613.6%6.0%
Green9931.9%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority17,49434.1%Pred Maj 30.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
90%
LAB
9%
LIB
0%
MIN
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bognor Regis and Littlehampton constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right4° Right
National Position14° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %66%52%52%
British Identity24%29%29%
Good Health42%49%48%
UK Born90%88%88%
Good Education32%43%39%
Good Job43%56%51%
High SEC47%57%51%
Average Age52.349.248.5
ABC1 Class47%60%53%

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton ranks #55 for "Leave", #148 for "Right" and #55 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ArunAldwick East20153,15506889190705
ArunAldwick West20153,35901,3331,12200
ArunBeach20157865143,105000
ArunBersted20152,78102,2601,4971,7490
ArunBrookfield20152,39296550982500
ArunCourtwick with Toddington20151,4152,4511,5389910368
ArunFelpham East20152,86901,05696100
ArunFelpham West20152,691092796000
ArunHotham20158496661,36305510
ArunMarine201585763107740994
ArunMiddleton-on-Sea20153,00501,0221,06300
ArunOrchard20158841,0261,6560093
ArunPagham20153,26801,2541,36500
ArunPevensey20158021,0420001,469
ArunRiver20151,1722,0142,5981,0095761,002
ArunYapton20153,087001,18300

Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ArunAldwick East3,7871,535033544703432,660
ArunAldwick West4,5731,8560737620003,213
ArunBeach3,5704482931,7680002,509
ArunBersted5,7991,36701,11173686004,074
ArunBrookfield4,5681,636660348564003,208
ArunCourtwick with Toddington5,8238561,48393059902234,091
ArunFelpham East3,8261,5780581529002,688
ArunFelpham West3,4901,4410496514002,451
ArunHotham4,8628466631,358054903,416
ArunMarine4,897906667081801,0503,441
ArunMiddleton-on-Sea3,7761,5660533554002,653
ArunOrchard4,7198019301,50000843,315
ArunPagham4,4011,7160659717003,092
ArunPevensey3,9096658640001,2182,747
ArunRiver6,7056601,1331,4625683245644,711
ArunYapton4,3902,23000854003,084
 Total73,09520,1076,69311,8187,5201,7333,48251,353

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ArunAldwick East3,9291,92631614395101692,659
ArunAldwick West4,7442,33846320311525683,212
ArunBeach3,7031,3736463744516552,509
ArunBersted6,0162,309832376198288714,074
ArunBrookfield4,7391,90696914410721623,209
ArunCourtwick with Toddington6,0411,9351,631193160341384,091
ArunFelpham East3,9691,9394421479312552,688
ArunFelpham West3,6201,7973071859622442,451
ArunHotham5,0441,7211,03633929198923,415
ArunMarine5,0801,6601,08284172633803,441
ArunMiddleton-on-Sea3,9171,9443931291259522,652
ArunOrchard4,8951,5991,1883506232843,315
ArunPagham4,5652,16645320118618673,091
ArunPevensey4,0551,1691,0038034414182,745
ArunRiver6,9562,2021,5413282011782614,711
ArunYapton4,5542,2934807514223703,083
 Total73,09530,27712,7823,3511,8609902,08651,353

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton.

Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ArunAldwick East3,9291,827326143158241812,659
ArunAldwick West4,7442,21847520319142833,212
ArunBeach3,7031,27965637410429672,509
ArunBersted6,0162,157848376294309904,074
ArunBrookfield4,7391,78698114418338773,209
ArunCourtwick with Toddington6,0411,7821,647193257551574,091
ArunFelpham East3,9691,83945214715626672,687
ArunFelpham West3,6201,70631718515435552,452
ArunHotham5,0441,5941,0493391102161083,416
ArunMarine5,0801,5321,09584253813963,441
ArunMiddleton-on-Sea3,9171,84540312918823642,652
ArunOrchard4,8951,4751,20135014049993,314
ArunPagham4,5652,05146520125934813,091
ArunPevensey4,0551,0671,0148099554312,746
ArunRiver6,9562,0261,5593283122022834,710
ArunYapton4,5542,1784927521539843,083
 Total73,09528,36212,9803,3513,0731,2572,32351,346

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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