Bolsover: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bolsover: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Dennis Skinner  (LAB)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 73,429
Turnout: 63.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB24,15351.9%52.3%
CON18,86540.6%36.8%
UKIP2,1294.6%6.9%
LIB1,3722.9%3.0%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LAB Majority5,28811.4%Pred Maj 15.5%
Chance of
winning
LAB
75%
CON
25%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bolsover : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bolsover constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position8° Left3° Right
National Position14° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %71%59%52%
British Identity22%27%29%
Good Health41%45%48%
UK Born97%91%88%
Good Education28%36%39%
Good Job41%48%51%
High SEC38%47%51%
Average Age50.149.148.5
ABC1 Class39%50%53%

Bolsover ranks #19 for "Leave", #491 for "Right" and #59 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bolsover: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Bolsover: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Bolsover

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Bolsover at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Bolsover. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

BolsoverActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BolsoverBarlborough20156881,7590000
BolsoverBlackwell201502,2280001,011
BolsoverBolsover North West201501,976000359
BolsoverBolsover South20150-20000
BolsoverBolsover West201501,57706530217
BolsoverClowne North20155512,0100000
BolsoverClowne South20154581,670000639
BolsoverElmton-with-Creswell201503,6240001,337
BolsoverPinxton201501,7120001,188
BolsoverPleasley20150-20000
BolsoverScarcliffe201501,918000837
BolsoverShirebrook East20150406021800
BolsoverShirebrook Langwith20150614037900
BolsoverShirebrook North West20150601000212
BolsoverShirebrook South East201594503028800
BolsoverShirebrook South West20150-10000
BolsoverSouth Normanton East201501,738000873
BolsoverSouth Normanton West201503,756000553
BolsoverTibshelf201501,6630002,315
BolsoverWhitwell201501,2160002,129
North East DerbyshireHolmewood and Heath20157011,7890000
North East DerbyshirePilsley and Morton20152,0383,1220001,292
North East DerbyshireShirland20152,5323,019065500
North East DerbyshireSutton20151,2582,2250000

BolsoverTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BolsoverBarlborough2,4824511,15300001,604
BolsoverBlackwell3,35301,4910006762,167
BolsoverBolsover North West3,06701,6770003051,982
BolsoverBolsover South3,04501,96800001,968
BolsoverBolsover West2,80301,167048301611,811
BolsoverClowne North3,0564251,55000001,975
BolsoverClowne South2,7272921,0640004071,763
BolsoverElmton-with-Creswell4,79502,2640008353,099
BolsoverPinxton3,25401,2420008622,104
BolsoverPleasley2,91601,88500001,885
BolsoverScarcliffe3,16801,4250006222,047
BolsoverShirebrook East1,2920543029200835
BolsoverShirebrook Langwith1,4620584036100945
BolsoverShirebrook North West1,91609150003231,238
BolsoverShirebrook South East1,6621146110350001,075
BolsoverShirebrook South West1,98501,28300001,283
BolsoverSouth Normanton East3,51101,5100007592,269
BolsoverSouth Normanton West4,78702,6970003973,094
BolsoverTibshelf3,68309950001,3852,380
BolsoverWhitwell2,92006860001,2011,887
North East DerbyshireHolmewood and Heath2,8165121,30800001,820
North East DerbyshirePilsley and Morton3,9087981,2220005062,526
North East DerbyshireShirland4,2561,1221,3380290002,750
North East DerbyshireSutton3,1147271,28600002,013
 Total71,9784,44131,86401,77608,43946,520

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

BolsoverEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BolsoverBarlborough2,5328397173613001,605
BolsoverBlackwell3,4219361,0648780002,167
BolsoverBolsover North West3,1297191,1274294001,982
BolsoverBolsover South3,1065731,2737051001,967
BolsoverBolsover West2,86054393445290001,812
BolsoverClowne North3,1187831,1313725001,976
BolsoverClowne South2,7828498254048001,762
BolsoverElmton-with-Creswell4,8921,1421,8176772003,098
BolsoverPinxton3,32092499778103002,102
BolsoverPleasley2,9755851,2062965001,885
BolsoverScarcliffe3,2328101,1386238002,048
BolsoverShirebrook East1,3181584882316600835
BolsoverShirebrook Langwith1,4911675281323700945
BolsoverShirebrook North West1,9553647845535001,238
BolsoverShirebrook South East1,69628455022219001,075
BolsoverShirebrook South West2,0253698631833001,283
BolsoverSouth Normanton East3,5821,0111,1047383002,271
BolsoverSouth Normanton West4,8841,3171,6348062003,093
BolsoverTibshelf3,7571,2769668948002,379
BolsoverWhitwell2,9791,00373411338001,888
North East DerbyshireHolmewood and Heath2,8736971,0097538001,819
North East DerbyshirePilsley and Morton3,9871,3171,03911655002,527
North East DerbyshireShirland4,3421,2991,21048193002,750
North East DerbyshireSutton3,1778991,0165444002,013
 Total71,97818,86424,1541,3722,1300046,520

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bolsover

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bolsover.

BolsoverPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BolsoverBarlborough2,5327797233651871,604
BolsoverBlackwell3,4218551,0728713111102,166
BolsoverBolsover North West3,1296451,135421411091,982
BolsoverBolsover South3,1064991,28170981091,967
BolsoverBolsover West2,86047594145333981,811
BolsoverClowne North3,1187091,13937721091,976
BolsoverClowne South2,7827838324090981,762
BolsoverElmton-with-Creswell4,8921,0261,8296714516143,097
BolsoverPinxton3,3208451,0057815311102,102
BolsoverPleasley2,9755151,213291101091,886
BolsoverScarcliffe3,2327331,14662861192,047
BolsoverShirebrook East1,3181284912318544835
BolsoverShirebrook Langwith1,4911365311325744945
BolsoverShirebrook North West1,9553187895564661,238
BolsoverShirebrook South East1,69624455422244651,075
BolsoverShirebrook South West2,0253218681863761,283
BolsoverSouth Normanton East3,5829261,1137313712112,272
BolsoverSouth Normanton West4,8841,2011,6468013516143,092
BolsoverTibshelf3,7571,1879758910412112,378
BolsoverWhitwell2,979932741113831091,888
North East DerbyshireHolmewood and Heath2,8736291,0167581981,818
North East DerbyshirePilsley and Morton3,9871,2231,04911611513122,528
North East DerbyshireShirland4,3421,1961,2214825814132,750
North East DerbyshireSutton3,1778241,02454921092,013
 Total71,97817,12924,3341,3723,22823821446,515

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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