Boston and Skegness: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Boston and Skegness: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Matt Warman  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 68,391
Turnout: 62.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON27,27163.6%59.9%
LAB10,69925.0%25.3%
UKIP3,3087.7%10.1%
LIB7711.8%1.8%
Green5471.3%1.8%
OTH2830.7%1.1%
CON Majority16,57238.6%Pred Maj 34.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
94%
LAB
6%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Boston and Skegness : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Boston and Skegness constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right3° Right
National Position29° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %78%59%52%
British Identity19%27%29%
Good Health39%45%48%
UK Born89%91%88%
Good Education24%36%39%
Good Job35%48%51%
High SEC36%47%51%
Average Age51.549.148.5
ABC1 Class35%50%53%

Boston and Skegness ranks #1 for "Leave", #37 for "Right" and #2 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Boston and Skegness: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Boston and Skegness: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Boston and Skegness

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Boston and Skegness at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Boston and Skegness. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Boston and SkegnessActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BostonCoastal20151,8290096600
BostonFenside201544244307030272
BostonFishtoft20152,38465901,2753291,760
BostonFive Village20151,6726050743191145
BostonKirton and Frampton20152,46049101,08401,759
BostonOld Leake and Wrangle20151,515001,43500
BostonSkirbeck20151,2571,78601,1162760
BostonSt Thomas'20151687902250549
BostonStaniland201593159906780100
BostonStation20151571480275470
BostonSwineshead and Holland Fen20151,781009840584
BostonTrinity20151,36371406980342
BostonWest2015634113032200
BostonWitham20157614861111,1510298
BostonWyberton2015823207060001,487
East LindseyBurgh le Marsh2015582004140272
East LindseyCroft20157380000355
East LindseyFriskney20155210053100
East LindseyHalton Holegate2015434003530626
East LindseyIngoldmells2015365235027308
East LindseyScarbrough and Seacroft20152,40385302,771091
East LindseySibsey and Stickney20152,442001,8130110
East LindseySt Clement's20151,08437501,2540377
East LindseyWainfleet201544719101910153
East LindseyWinthorpe2015786001,91234593

Boston and SkegnessTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BostonCoastal2,5891,07100566001,637
BostonFenside3,199481482076402962,023
BostonFishtoft4,5401,06829505711477882,869
BostonFive Village2,605820297036594711,647
BostonKirton and Frampton4,4431,192238052508532,808
BostonOld Leake and Wrangle2,28574200703001,445
BostonSkirbeck4,9878931,269079319603,151
BostonSt Thomas'1,62516979022605521,026
BostonStaniland2,55565141904740701,614
BostonStation1,76427926304898401,115
BostonSwineshead and Holland Fen2,5028410046502761,582
BostonTrinity3,219890466045602232,035
BostonWest1,13642676021600718
BostonWitham2,8084813077072801881,774
BostonWyberton2,892483121035208721,828
East LindseyBurgh le Marsh1,580458003260214998
East LindseyCroft1,5706700000322992
East LindseyFriskney1,5304790048800967
East LindseyHalton Holegate334650053094212
East LindseyIngoldmells1,5944172690312091,007
East LindseyScarbrough and Seacroft5,8881,46251901,6860553,722
East LindseySibsey and Stickney3,3111,171008690532,093
East LindseySt Clement's3,249720249083302512,053
East LindseyWainfleet1,711492210021001691,081
East LindseyWinthorpe3,919621001,510273732,477
 Total67,83517,0425,5597013,9807945,42942,874

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Boston and SkegnessEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BostonCoastal2,6101,28920420116341,636
BostonFenside3,2251,0926721921216122,023
BostonFishtoft4,5771,8107794015756292,871
BostonFive Village2,6261,1653419913481,648
BostonKirton and Frampton4,4791,9646134614411302,808
BostonOld Leake and Wrangle2,3041,10417912140561,446
BostonSkirbeck5,0281,4741,2772327110073,152
BostonSt Thomas'1,638603323215111181,027
BostonStaniland2,576914514261441081,616
BostonStation1,77856935091374541,114
BostonSwineshead and Holland Fen2,5231,234204161094141,581
BostonTrinity3,2451,2755694112415112,035
BostonWest1,145503159114311718
BostonWitham2,831984558531472491,775
BostonWyberton2,9161,2084493210210281,829
East LindseyBurgh le Marsh1,5936652051991108998
East LindseyCroft1,5838181181030412992
East LindseyFriskney1,543727122189152965
East LindseyHalton Holegate3371553651103210
East LindseyIngoldmells1,6075323848732101,009
East LindseyScarbrough and Seacroft5,9362,25495912432542173,721
East LindseySibsey and Stickney3,3381,61125343171692,093
East LindseySt Clement's3,2761,1676135518324112,053
East LindseyWainfleet1,7256942863057781,082
East LindseyWinthorpe3,9511,45753579289103142,477
 Total67,83527,26810,7027693,30954828342,874

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Boston and Skegness

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Boston and Skegness.

Boston and SkegnessPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BostonCoastal2,6101,2282102015511121,636
BostonFenside3,2251,0176801926026212,023
BostonFishtoft4,5771,7037904022571422,871
BostonFive Village2,6261,104347913042161,648
BostonKirton and Frampton4,4791,8596244621025432,807
BostonOld Leake and Wrangle2,3041,0501851217412131,446
BostonSkirbeck5,0281,3571,28923345116223,152
BostonSt Thomas'1,638565327217516231,027
BostonStaniland2,5768545202618218151,615
BostonStation1,77852735491635191,113
BostonSwineshead and Holland Fen2,5231,1752101614612211,580
BostonTrinity3,2451,1995774117225202,034
BostonWest1,145476162116054718
BostonWitham2,8319185655318933171,775
BostonWyberton2,9161,1404563214519361,828
East LindseyBurgh le Marsh1,593628209191151513999
East LindseyCroft1,5837811221053917992
East LindseyFriskney1,54369112618114106965
East LindseyHalton Holegate3371473751614210
East LindseyIngoldmells1,6074943888977151,009
East LindseyScarbrough and Seacroft5,9362,11597312441361343,720
East LindseySibsey and Stickney3,3381,5332614322017192,093
East LindseySt Clement's3,2761,0906215523135202,052
East LindseyWainfleet1,725654290308313131,083
East LindseyWinthorpe3,9511,36554579347116252,477
 Total67,83525,67010,8687694,32076648042,873

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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