Bosworth: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bosworth: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: David Tredinnick  (CON)
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 80,633
Turnout: 69.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,86456.7%53.0%
LAB13,51324.1%24.4%
LIB9,74417.3%17.4%
Green1,0471.9%2.4%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority18,35132.7%Pred Maj 28.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
86%
LAB
13%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Bosworth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bosworth constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right3° Right
National Position11° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%59%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born96%91%88%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job51%48%51%
High SEC51%47%51%
Average Age50.649.148.5
ABC1 Class53%50%53%

Bosworth ranks #148 for "Leave", #141 for "Right" and #105 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bosworth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Bosworth: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Bosworth

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Bosworth at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Bosworth. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

BosworthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Hinckley and BosworthAmbien20151,11028031739400
Hinckley and BosworthBarlestone, Nailstone and Osbaston20153601651,12518100
Hinckley and BosworthBarwell20153,8012,2502,1222,73100
Hinckley and BosworthBurbage Sketchley and Stretton20156,4871,9814,41275300
Hinckley and BosworthBurbage St Catherines and Lash Hill20152,1638161,79759300
Hinckley and BosworthCadeby, Carlton and Market Bosworth with Shackerstone20151,24331338630300
Hinckley and BosworthEarl Shilton20155,5323,0552,1682,09200
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Castle20151,2718202,2345332430
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Clarendon20152,9301,6394,6971,6050796
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley De Montfort20155,3082,0305,3561,0330231
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Trinity20151,5338502,67167100
Hinckley and BosworthMarkfield, Stanton and Fieldhead20152,0452,24350400629
Hinckley and BosworthNewbold Verdon with Desford and Peckleton20155,0851,8983,5381,06400
Hinckley and BosworthRatby, Bagworth and Thornton20154,0221,31148574700
Hinckley and BosworthTwycross and Witherley with Sheepy20151,16729823627700

BosworthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Hinckley and BosworthAmbien2,7851,036261296368001,961
Hinckley and BosworthBarlestone, Nailstone and Osbaston2,6253641671,136183001,850
Hinckley and BosworthBarwell7,3501,8051,0681,0081,297005,178
Hinckley and BosworthBurbage Sketchley and Stretton7,1852,4087351,638280005,061
Hinckley and BosworthBurbage St Catherines and Lash Hill4,6191,3114941,089359003,253
Hinckley and BosworthCadeby, Carlton and Market Bosworth with Shackerstone2,8361,106279343270001,998
Hinckley and BosworthEarl Shilton8,1112,4601,359964930005,713
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Castle4,8278475471,48935516203,400
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Clarendon6,9661,2326891,97567503354,906
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley De Montfort7,7202,0687912,0874020905,438
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Trinity5,3801,0155631,768444003,790
Hinckley and BosworthMarkfield, Stanton and Fieldhead4,5491,2091,326298003723,205
Hinckley and BosworthNewbold Verdon with Desford and Peckleton6,5932,0387611,418427004,644
Hinckley and BosworthRatby, Bagworth and Thornton5,7462,480808299461004,048
Hinckley and BosworthTwycross and Witherley with Sheepy2,4501,018260206242001,726
 Total79,74222,39710,10816,0146,69316279756,171

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

BosworthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Hinckley and BosworthAmbien2,8161,34035821404901,961
Hinckley and BosworthBarlestone, Nailstone and Osbaston2,65490335154105401,849
Hinckley and BosworthBarwell7,4322,7491,540761012805,178
Hinckley and BosworthBurbage Sketchley and Stretton7,2653,18492189106505,061
Hinckley and BosworthBurbage St Catherines and Lash Hill4,6711,87872161504003,254
Hinckley and BosworthCadeby, Carlton and Market Bosworth with Shackerstone2,8681,42032122603101,998
Hinckley and BosworthEarl Shilton8,2023,1841,68277307505,714
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Castle4,8811,468948829015503,400
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Clarendon7,0442,4251,3031,07909904,906
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley De Montfort7,8063,1131,1211,12707705,438
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Trinity5,4401,89091189908903,789
Hinckley and BosworthMarkfield, Stanton and Fieldhead4,6001,7041,04941503603,204
Hinckley and BosworthNewbold Verdon with Desford and Peckleton6,6672,79598978008004,644
Hinckley and BosworthRatby, Bagworth and Thornton5,8102,5591,01043204604,047
Hinckley and BosworthTwycross and Witherley with Sheepy2,4771,25229116202101,726
 Total79,74231,86413,5169,74401,045056,171

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bosworth

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bosworth.

BosworthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Hinckley and BosworthAmbien2,8161,267366214465991,961
Hinckley and BosworthBarlestone, Nailstone and Osbaston2,654834358541446491,850
Hinckley and BosworthBarwell7,4322,5561,560761122155245,178
Hinckley and BosworthBurbage Sketchley and Stretton7,2652,99594189111991235,060
Hinckley and BosworthBurbage St Catherines and Lash Hill4,6711,7577346157757153,255
Hinckley and BosworthCadeby, Carlton and Market Bosworth with Shackerstone2,8681,345329226474191,997
Hinckley and BosworthEarl Shilton8,2022,9711,704773135104265,713
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Castle4,8811,34196182980172163,399
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Clarendon7,0442,2421,3221,079116124234,906
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley De Montfort7,8062,9101,1421,127128105255,437
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Trinity5,4401,74992689989108183,789
Hinckley and BosworthMarkfield, Stanton and Fieldhead4,6001,5851,0614157652153,204
Hinckley and BosworthNewbold Verdon with Desford and Peckleton6,6672,6221,007780109104214,643
Hinckley and BosworthRatby, Bagworth and Thornton5,8102,4081,0264329567194,047
Hinckley and BosworthTwycross and Witherley with Sheepy2,4771,188298162413081,727
 Total79,74229,77013,7359,7441,3241,33326056,166

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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