Braintree: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Braintree: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: James Cleverly  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 75,316
Turnout: 69.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,87362.8%59.1%
LAB14,45127.6%28.0%
LIB2,2514.3%4.3%
UKIP1,8353.5%5.9%
Green9161.8%2.3%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority18,42235.2%Pred Maj 31.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
92%
LAB
8%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Braintree : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Braintree constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right8° Right
National Position16° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %63%57%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born94%89%88%
Good Education34%37%39%
Good Job50%53%51%
High SEC52%53%51%
Average Age49.649.448.5
ABC1 Class52%55%53%

Braintree ranks #102 for "Leave", #62 for "Right" and #30 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Braintree: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Braintree: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Braintree

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Braintree at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Braintree. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

BraintreeActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BraintreeBocking Blackwater20155,8372,2655021,3264430
BraintreeBocking North20151,7561,76907532230
BraintreeBocking South20151,6171,43201,1502400
BraintreeBraintree Central and Beckers Green20153,6713,07801,1086260
BraintreeBraintree South20152,5631,8650000
BraintreeBraintree West20153,0191,32109483840
BraintreeBumpstead20151,082325034300
BraintreeCoggeshall20153,2661,23507344670
BraintreeGosfield and Greenstead Green20151,167318002390
BraintreeGreat Notley and Black Notley20158,4382,07601,1916640
BraintreeHalstead St Andrews20151,779732002261,872
BraintreeHalstead Trinity20151,1341,292078801,286
BraintreeHedingham20152,47791601,28100
BraintreeRayne201599617703311090
BraintreeSilver End and Cressing20151,03871907362,5100
BraintreeStour Valley North20151,084271037900
BraintreeStour Valley South20151,11923428927100
BraintreeThe Colnes20153,639960006160
BraintreeThree Fields20153,47593509453920
BraintreeYeldham2015872288040000

BraintreeTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BraintreeBocking Blackwater7,7933,1201,21126870923705,545
BraintreeBocking North4,0251,1171,125047914202,863
BraintreeBocking South4,6091,1941,058084917703,278
BraintreeBraintree Central and Beckers Green6,8382,1051,765063535904,864
BraintreeBraintree South4,3891,8071,31500003,122
BraintreeBraintree West4,5181,711749053721803,215
BraintreeBumpstead2,2239782940310001,582
BraintreeCoggeshall49520276045290352
BraintreeGosfield and Greenstead Green1,9719492590019401,402
BraintreeGreat Notley and Black Notley5,6132,724670038421403,992
BraintreeHalstead St Andrews4,2651,171482001491,2323,034
BraintreeHalstead Trinity4,678839955058309513,328
BraintreeHedingham3,9091,4745450762002,781
BraintreeRayne2,077912162030310001,477
BraintreeSilver End and Cressing1,24318312701304440884
BraintreeStour Valley North2,0749222310322001,475
BraintreeStour Valley South2,211920192238223001,573
BraintreeThe Colnes4,3792,1745730036803,115
BraintreeThree Fields4,1721,795483048820202,968
BraintreeYeldham2,0738242720378001,474
 Total73,55527,12112,5445067,1372,8332,18352,324

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

BraintreeEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BraintreeBocking Blackwater7,9803,5011,4383152246505,543
BraintreeBocking North4,1211,5111,0751041304402,864
BraintreeBocking South4,7191,5661,2741392346503,278
BraintreeBraintree Central and Beckers Green7,0022,5361,86718117410704,865
BraintreeBraintree South4,4941,7091,2565595603,121
BraintreeBraintree West4,6262,0528811091225003,214
BraintreeBumpstead2,2761,1433344159501,582
BraintreeCoggeshall50723687128100353
BraintreeGosfield and Greenstead Green2,0181,03726940114501,402
BraintreeGreat Notley and Black Notley5,7472,93784385804803,993
BraintreeHalstead St Andrews4,3671,940793202346303,032
BraintreeHalstead Trinity4,7901,7321,1642241674103,328
BraintreeHedingham4,0031,8446191571273402,781
BraintreeRayne2,1271,06824872622701,477
BraintreeSilver End and Cressing1,2734642465444770885
BraintreeStour Valley North2,1241,09626541512201,475
BraintreeStour Valley South2,2641,104252160342301,573
BraintreeThe Colnes4,4842,2056521322210403,115
BraintreeThree Fields4,2722,19454883746802,967
BraintreeYeldham2,12399534044821301,474
 Total73,55532,87014,4512,2501,834917052,324

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Braintree

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Braintree.

BraintreePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BraintreeBocking Blackwater7,9803,2941,45931535594265,543
BraintreeBocking North4,1211,4041,08610419859132,864
BraintreeBocking South4,7191,4431,28713931282153,278
BraintreeBraintree Central and Beckers Green7,0022,3541,886181289132234,865
BraintreeBraintree South4,4941,5921,2685516922143,120
BraintreeBraintree West4,6261,93289310919867153,214
BraintreeBumpstead2,2761,08434041961371,581
BraintreeCoggeshall507223881216122353
BraintreeGosfield and Greenstead Green2,01898527440445271,402
BraintreeGreat Notley and Black Notley5,7472,7888588517469193,993
BraintreeHalstead St Andrews4,3671,82780520210679143,033
BraintreeHalstead Trinity4,7901,6081,17722424658153,328
BraintreeHedingham4,0031,74063015719348132,781
BraintreeRayne2,1271,01325472973571,478
BraintreeSilver End and Cressing1,2734312495465824885
BraintreeStour Valley North2,1241,04127141863071,476
BraintreeStour Valley South2,2641,045258160713171,572
BraintreeThe Colnes4,4842,08866413296120143,114
BraintreeThree Fields4,2722,0835598314483142,966
BraintreeYeldham2,123940346441172171,475
 Total73,55530,91514,6522,2503,0721,18924352,321

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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