Brecon and Radnorshire: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Brecon and Radnorshire: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Chris Davies  (CON)
County/Area: Powys (Wales)
Electorate: 56,010
Turnout: 73.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON20,08148.6%44.8%
LIB12,04329.1%29.1%
LAB7,33517.7%18.1%
Plaid1,2993.1%3.1%
UKIP5761.4%3.8%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority8,03819.4%Pred Maj 15.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
77%
LIB
10%
LAB
12%
Plaid
1%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Brecon and Radnorshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position1° Right10° Left
National Position4° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC47%46%51%
Average Age53.749.648.5
ABC1 Class46%47%53%

Brecon and Radnorshire ranks #376 for "Leave", #324 for "Right" and #466 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Brecon and Radnorshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Brecon and Radnorshire: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Brecon and Radnorshire

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Brecon and Radnorshire at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Brecon and Radnorshire. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Brecon and RadnorshireActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
PowysAber-craf201203878000087
PowysBeguildy2012000000626
PowysBronllys201264059000441
PowysBuilth201200211000362
PowysBwlch20127203010000
PowysCrickhowell201200-10000
PowysCwm-twrch20120-100000
PowysDisserth and Trecoed201234602300000
PowysFelin-fch2012194480000274
PowysGlasbury201250200000479
PowysGwernyfed2012205052000209
PowysHay2012-1000000
PowysKnighton201200274000687
PowysLlanafanfawr2012000000-1
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr2012000000-1
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West201200151000221
PowysLlandrindod North20122158821000393
PowysLlandrindod South20123560255000181
PowysLlanelwedd201200-10000
PowysLlangattock2012930140000215
PowysLlangors201200181000313
PowysLlangunllo2012000000-1
PowysLlangynidr20120087000368
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells201200210000563
PowysLlanyre2012008000543
PowysMaescar / Llywel201221200000571
PowysNantmel2012277036000362
PowysOld Radnor201200264000409
PowysPresteigne201200244000954
PowysRhayader2012912034810000
PowysSt David Within20123821848000194
PowysSt John20120778154000158
PowysSt Mary20123012653610000
PowysTalgarth201200-10000
PowysTalybont-on-Usk20122400128000331
PowysTawe-Uchaf201205060000336
PowysYnyscedwyn20120-100000
PowysYscir201200241000255
PowysYstradgynlais201203780000606

Brecon and RadnorshireTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysAber-craf1,1160593123000133849
PowysBeguildy1,145000000871871
PowysBronllys98785079000587751
PowysBuilth2,018005660009701,536
PowysBwlch74811004590000569
PowysCrickhowell2,281001,73600001,736
PowysCwm-twrch1,60401,221000001,221
PowysDisserth and Trecoed99445403020000756
PowysFelin-fch1,068306760000432814
PowysGlasbury1,789697000006651,362
PowysGwernyfed1,2044030102000411916
PowysHay1,264962000000962
PowysKnighton2,372005150001,2911,806
PowysLlanafanfawr1,084000000825825
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr896000000682682
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West96600298000437735
PowysLlandrindod North1,600365149360006671,217
PowysLlandrindod South1,58154103870002751,203
PowysLlanelwedd928007060000706
PowysLlangattock7881240187000288599
PowysLlangors84100235000406641
PowysLlangunllo959000000730730
PowysLlangynidr80500117000496613
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,465003030008121,115
PowysLlanyre8910010000668678
PowysMaescar / Llywel1,349278000007491,027
PowysNantmel1,173366048000479893
PowysOld Radnor1,23700369000572941
PowysPresteigne2,129003300001,2901,620
PowysRhayader1,62614532476800001,237
PowysSt David Within1,407824691030004171,071
PowysSt John2,61601,4212810002891,991
PowysSt Mary2,44560453272500001,861
PowysTalgarth1,328001,01100001,011
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,52039702120005481,157
PowysTawe-Uchaf1,667076200005061,268
PowysYnyscedwyn1,54101,173000001,173
PowysYscir79300293000310603
PowysYstradgynlais2,086061000009781,588
 Total54,3115,9197,33010,30100017,78441,334

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Brecon and RadnorshireEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysAber-craf1,151169465157200380849
PowysBeguildy1,18161610176210490872
PowysBronllys1,01848328201100280750
PowysBuilth2,081735986182106401,536
PowysBwlch771211582990010569
PowysCrickhowell2,3524501911,09500001,736
PowysCwm-twrch1,6541738431291705901,221
PowysDisserth and Trecoed1,0254077424726030757
PowysFelin-fch1,1015757912380290814
PowysGlasbury1,8451,020402361105401,361
PowysGwernyfed1,2426134022670300916
PowysHay1,304727281946070962
PowysKnighton2,4469911195964905001,805
PowysLlanafanfawr1,11856624175160450826
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr92448531106180410681
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West99632210528370180735
PowysLlandrindod North1,6506942042641404101,217
PowysLlandrindod South1,6306321084321601401,202
PowysLlanelwedd9571701849120250706
PowysLlangattock8133263721780110599
PowysLlangors8673462524470180640
PowysLlangunllo98952616143120340731
PowysLlangynidr83038530163150200613
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,511641433641505201,115
PowysLlanyre91944820142320360678
PowysMaescar / Llywel1,391735671511505901,027
PowysNantmel1,21062820184230380893
PowysOld Radnor1,27652931344120250941
PowysPresteigne2,196966654974105101,620
PowysRhayader1,677340273589503001,237
PowysSt David Within1,4514403542271503501,071
PowysSt John2,6984919914621203601,992
PowysSt Mary2,52178747559410301,860
PowysTalgarth1,37025157686001601,010
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,568734107282902501,157
PowysTawe-Uchaf1,7194555621592906301,268
PowysYnyscedwyn1,589146865951105701,174
PowysYscir8183022825650120603
PowysYstradgynlais2,1515657061944208101,588
 Total54,31120,0807,33512,04157801,298041,334

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Brecon and Radnorshire

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Brecon and Radnorshire.

Brecon and RadnorshirePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysAber-craf1,151136468157415384849
PowysBeguildy1,18158214176435494873
PowysBronllys1,01845431201294284751
PowysBuilth2,0816751046185986471,535
PowysBwlch7711896029914313569
PowysCrickhowell2,3523821981,095439081,735
PowysCwm-twrch1,6541398471293855941,221
PowysDisserth and Trecoed1,0253777724745434757
PowysFelin-fch1,10154382123284294813
PowysGlasbury1,845967462364575471,362
PowysGwernyfed1,24257744226305304916
PowysHay1,3046893219430575962
PowysKnighton2,44692112659694105091,806
PowysLlanafanfawr1,11853427175364454825
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr92445834106354413681
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West996293108283254184735
PowysLlandrindod North1,6506462092644474161,217
PowysLlandrindod South1,6305851134324661461,202
PowysLlanelwedd95714221491194253705
PowysLlangattock81330339217233113599
PowysLlangors86732128244233183640
PowysLlangunllo98949719143304344731
PowysLlangynidr83036132163303203612
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,511597483644365251,115
PowysLlanyre91942223142494363679
PowysMaescar / Llywel1,391695711514065951,027
PowysNantmel1,21059324184455384893
PowysOld Radnor1,27649235344355255941
PowysPresteigne2,196903724978195181,621
PowysRhayader1,6772922785893673061,238
PowysSt David Within1,4513983582274163551,070
PowysSt John2,698413999462611136101,992
PowysSt Mary2,5217144835944710391,860
PowysTalgarth1,370212616862551651,010
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,5686891122823862561,158
PowysTawe-Uchaf1,7194055671596076361,267
PowysYnyscedwyn1,589117868952945741,174
PowysYscir81827830256203123602
PowysYstradgynlais2,1515037121948198181,588
 Total54,31118,4947,50012,0411,5812191,29819841,331

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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