Brentwood and Ongar: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Brentwood and Ongar: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Alex Burghart  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 74,911
Turnout: 70.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,81165.8%62.1%
LAB10,80920.4%20.8%
LIB4,4268.4%8.4%
UKIP1,8453.5%5.9%
Green9151.7%2.2%
OTH1040.2%0.7%
CON Majority24,00245.4%Pred Maj 41.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LAB
3%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Brentwood and Ongar : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Brentwood and Ongar constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right8° Right
National Position15° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%57%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education40%37%39%
Good Job64%53%51%
High SEC65%53%51%
Average Age51.149.448.5
ABC1 Class66%55%53%

Brentwood and Ongar ranks #131 for "Leave", #32 for "Right" and #42 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Brentwood and Ongar: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Brentwood and Ongar: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Brentwood and Ongar

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Brentwood and Ongar at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Brentwood and Ongar. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Brentwood and OngarActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BrentwoodBrentwood North20151,1934411,1625490128
BrentwoodBrentwood South20151,19286327157000
BrentwoodBrentwood West20151,9415641,083000
BrentwoodBrizes and Doddinghurst20151,92229830786100
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon20151,25119704570311
BrentwoodHutton Central201467511911800190
BrentwoodHutton East20151,15128818037100
BrentwoodHutton North20151,24229617300519
BrentwoodHutton South201469111202620228
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing20152,21350136859800
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch20158772741,38057000
BrentwoodShenfield20151,96522393428500
BrentwoodSouth Weald20143023601270216
BrentwoodTipps Cross20151,35221604730306
BrentwoodWarley20151,49641795046400
Epping ForestChipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash20151,26804285532070
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village2015597160000648
Epping ForestHigh Ongar, Willingale and The Rodings201234551003163
Epping ForestLambourne20157060030800
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield201234333350420
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett20151,45201806201760
Epping ForestPassingford20124022844000
Epping ForestShelley2015467220027800

Brentwood and OngarTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BrentwoodBrentwood North5,0081,2564641,22357801353,656
BrentwoodBrentwood South4,5151,357982309649003,297
BrentwoodBrentwood West5,5192,1806331,2160004,029
BrentwoodBrizes and Doddinghurst4,6101,910296305855003,366
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon2,8881,190187043502962,108
BrentwoodHutton Central2,9701,328234232003742,168
BrentwoodHutton East2,8641,210303189390002,092
BrentwoodHutton North3,3021,343320187005612,411
BrentwoodHutton South3,0071,173190044503872,195
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing4,6482,041462339552003,394
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch4,6399582991,507623003,387
BrentwoodShenfield4,2341,783202848259003,092
BrentwoodSouth Weald1,50348758020503481,098
BrentwoodTipps Cross2,9861,256201043902842,180
BrentwoodWarley4,6521,527426970474003,397
Epping ForestChipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash3,1531,189040151819402,302
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village163511400055120
Epping ForestHigh Ongar, Willingale and The Rodings1,75890413400811651,284
Epping ForestLambourne1,56779700348001,145
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,5108358085010201,102
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,4871,523018965018502,547
Epping ForestPassingford1,7731,098761200001,294
Epping ForestShelley1,7066032840359001,246
 Total72,46227,9995,8458,1207,7795622,60552,910

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Brentwood and OngarEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BrentwoodBrentwood North5,1771,8651,00556611097133,656
BrentwoodBrentwood South4,6681,7081,1872421045323,296
BrentwoodBrentwood West5,7062,490962493206054,030
BrentwoodBrizes and Doddinghurst4,7662,3845512231644313,366
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon2,9861,49042766972182,109
BrentwoodHutton Central3,0701,557393161262392,169
BrentwoodHutton East2,9611,375481124941612,091
BrentwoodHutton North3,4141,5985971542426112,410
BrentwoodHutton South3,1091,601427746616122,196
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing4,8052,4635792101083223,394
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch4,7961,7677935981794823,387
BrentwoodShenfield4,3772,245418345532463,091
BrentwoodSouth Weald1,554790202205024101,096
BrentwoodTipps Cross3,0871,58940075941482,180
BrentwoodWarley4,8092,042782461714013,397
Epping ForestChipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash3,2601,51927224314911812,302
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village16980304231120
Epping ForestHigh Ongar, Willingale and The Rodings1,81798716939325061,283
Epping ForestLambourne1,6208951311693811,144
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,56185110962265501,103
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,6051,71437915317512512,547
Epping ForestPassingford1,8331,07811360311021,294
Epping ForestShelley1,7647234033777701,247
 Total72,46234,81110,8104,4261,84591310352,910

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Brentwood and Ongar

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Brentwood and Ongar.

Brentwood and OngarPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BrentwoodBrentwood North5,1771,7281,019566196116303,655
BrentwoodBrentwood South4,6681,5851,20024218270173,296
BrentwoodBrentwood West5,7062,33997849311581244,030
BrentwoodBrizes and Doddinghurst4,7662,25856422324460173,366
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon2,9861,4114356614732182,109
BrentwoodHutton Central3,0701,4764011617734192,168
BrentwoodHutton East2,9611,29748912414327112,091
BrentwoodHutton North3,4141,5086061548138222,409
BrentwoodHutton South3,1091,5194367411827222,196
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing4,8052,33659221018850183,394
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch4,7961,64080659825965183,386
BrentwoodShenfield4,3772,12943034512640203,090
BrentwoodSouth Weald1,554749206207630151,096
BrentwoodTipps Cross3,0871,5074087514625182,179
BrentwoodWarley4,8091,91579546115158173,397
Epping ForestChipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash3,2601,433281243203130122,302
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village16976304542121
Epping ForestHigh Ongar, Willingale and The Rodings1,817939174396257121,283
Epping ForestLambourne1,620852135161201461,143
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,56181011362526151,103
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,6051,619389153235138132,547
Epping ForestPassingford1,8331,03011860621781,295
Epping ForestShelley1,764676408371061361,246
 Total72,46232,83211,0134,4263,0941,18735052,902

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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