Bridgwater and West Somerset: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bridgwater and West Somerset: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Ian Liddell-Grainger  (CON)
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
Electorate: 89,294
Turnout: 65.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,11155.1%51.4%
LAB16,66328.6%29.0%
LIB6,33210.9%10.9%
UKIP2,1023.6%6.0%
Green1,0591.8%2.3%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority15,44826.5%Pred Maj 22.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
84%
LAB
15%
LIB
1%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bridgwater and West Somerset : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bridgwater and West Somerset constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right1° Right
National Position9° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %63%53%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education33%40%39%
Good Job42%50%51%
High SEC44%52%51%
Average Age52.250.548.5
ABC1 Class43%54%53%

Bridgwater and West Somerset ranks #114 for "Leave", #286 for "Right" and #151 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bridgwater and West Somerset: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Bridgwater and West Somerset: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Bridgwater and West Somerset

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Bridgwater and West Somerset at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Bridgwater and West Somerset. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Bridgwater and West SomersetActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
SedgemoorBridgwater Dunwear20159181,18629555400
SedgemoorBridgwater Eastover20151,0201,356240000
SedgemoorBridgwater Fairfax20152,5953,060545000
SedgemoorBridgwater Hamp20151,4221,9020000
SedgemoorBridgwater Victoria20151,4661,399062100
SedgemoorBridgwater Westover20151,4011,832373000
SedgemoorBridgwater Wyndham20152,6151,136476000
SedgemoorCannington and Wembdon20153,043080905460
SedgemoorEast Polden20158140004080
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine20152,3771,4151,78890701,835
SedgemoorHuntspill and Pawlett2015793028602170
SedgemoorKing's Isle20153,112082707920
SedgemoorKnoll20153,321092264700
SedgemoorNorth Petherton20156,2681,1551,89109410
SedgemoorPuriton and Woolavington20152,25654208774770
SedgemoorQuantocks20153,063662007660
SedgemoorWest Polden20159630005450
West SomersetAlcombe20155764220487306405
West SomersetBrendon Hills2015-100000
West SomersetCarhampton and Withycombe20154720002510
West SomersetCrowcombe and Stogumber20155810001950
West SomersetDulverton and District20152,0360004330
West SomersetDunster and Timberscombe20154240002880
West SomersetGreater Exmoor2015670000880
West SomersetMinehead Central20151,7314693885834030
West SomersetMinehead North2015-100-100
West SomersetMinehead South201576638500355590
West SomersetOld Cleeve20151,3810005240
West SomersetPorlock and District20151,394003505540
West SomersetQuantock Vale20151,235000299478
West SomersetWatchet20152,0729564300462954
West SomersetWest Quantock20155730001880
West SomersetWilliton20154670002201,771

Bridgwater and West SomersetTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
SedgemoorBridgwater Dunwear3,6368181,057263494002,632
SedgemoorBridgwater Eastover3,5099901,3172330002,540
SedgemoorBridgwater Fairfax5,8271,7662,0823710004,219
SedgemoorBridgwater Hamp4,0851,2651,69200002,957
SedgemoorBridgwater Victoria4,5761,3931,3290590003,312
SedgemoorBridgwater Westover4,0801,1481,5013060002,955
SedgemoorBridgwater Wyndham3,1851,4266202600002,306
SedgemoorCannington and Wembdon3,5351,7710471031802,560
SedgemoorEast Polden1,62678400039301,177
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine1352817211102299
SedgemoorHuntspill and Pawlett1,6837450269020401,218
SedgemoorKing's Isle3,4051,6210431041302,465
SedgemoorKnoll84641601158100612
SedgemoorNorth Petherton5,4022,390440721035903,910
SedgemoorPuriton and Woolavington3,5271,387333053929302,552
SedgemoorQuantocks3,4261,6923660042302,481
SedgemoorWest Polden1,79482900046901,298
West SomersetAlcombe2,10940029303392132821,527
West SomersetBrendon Hills93267500000675
West SomersetCarhampton and Withycombe8724120002190631
West SomersetCrowcombe and Stogumber9315050001690674
West SomersetDulverton and District1,9291,15200024501,397
West SomersetDunster and Timberscombe9173950002690664
West SomersetGreater Exmoor850544000710615
West SomersetMinehead Central3,5111,23133427641528702,543
West SomersetMinehead North1,62458800588001,176
West SomersetMinehead South1,816480241002233701,314
West SomersetOld Cleeve1,66187200033101,203
West SomersetPorlock and District1,7737790019530901,283
West SomersetQuantock Vale1,5927070001712741,152
West SomersetWatchet2,86588240718301974062,075
West SomersetWest Quantock8024370001430580
West SomersetWilliton2,0282790001311,0581,468
 Total80,48930,80712,0293,9203,2525,8502,41258,270

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Bridgwater and West SomersetEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
SedgemoorBridgwater Dunwear4,0349731,1013082361302,631
SedgemoorBridgwater Eastover3,8931,0311,169247801202,539
SedgemoorBridgwater Fairfax6,4641,7281,9823871012104,219
SedgemoorBridgwater Hamp4,5321,2151,54393101602,958
SedgemoorBridgwater Victoria5,0771,4301,4541582581303,313
SedgemoorBridgwater Westover4,5261,1541,427284533602,954
SedgemoorBridgwater Wyndham3,5331,44157124149302,305
SedgemoorCannington and Wembdon3,9221,803322371243902,559
SedgemoorEast Polden1,8048072079436601,177
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine15037332071098
SedgemoorHuntspill and Pawlett1,867790172197352301,217
SedgemoorKing's Isle3,7771,656344380186802,466
SedgemoorKnoll93942460903530612
SedgemoorNorth Petherton5,9932,376861582424903,910
SedgemoorPuriton and Woolavington3,9131,4646401572454702,553
SedgemoorQuantocks3,8011,654547182168102,480
SedgemoorWest Polden1,99089122312165701,298
West SomersetAlcombe2,3406504642241523601,526
West SomersetBrendon Hills1,03456050511110673
West SomersetCarhampton and Withycombe9673991087916300632
West SomersetCrowcombe and Stogumber1,03348988622340675
West SomersetDulverton and District2,1401,035147140175701,396
West SomersetDunster and Timberscombe1,017418127737390664
West SomersetGreater Exmoor94353038281180615
West SomersetMinehead Central3,8951,4345573551623402,542
West SomersetMinehead North1,802661156143211401,175
West SomersetMinehead South2,015659416165363801,314
West SomersetOld Cleeve1,84379519615235601,202
West SomersetPorlock and District1,967818176179664401,283
West SomersetQuantock Vale1,76679420711553101,152
West SomersetWatchet3,178953712302614602,074
West SomersetWest Quantock89041382585220580
West SomersetWilliton2,250627484289462301,469
 Total80,48932,10916,6646,3272,1001,061058,270

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bridgwater and West Somerset

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bridgwater and West Somerset.

Bridgwater and West SomersetPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
SedgemoorBridgwater Dunwear4,0348741,11130829927122,631
SedgemoorBridgwater Eastover3,8939361,17924714025122,539
SedgemoorBridgwater Fairfax6,4641,5691,99838720143204,218
SedgemoorBridgwater Hamp4,5321,1041,5559317121142,958
SedgemoorBridgwater Victoria5,0771,3061,46715833730153,313
SedgemoorBridgwater Westover4,5261,0431,43928412351142,954
SedgemoorBridgwater Wyndham3,5331,35458024110415112,305
SedgemoorCannington and Wembdon3,9221,7073323718552122,559
SedgemoorEast Polden1,80476321294317251,177
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine15033332092097
SedgemoorHuntspill and Pawlett1,867744177197642961,217
SedgemoorKing's Isle3,7771,5633543807781122,467
SedgemoorKnoll93940162905063612
SedgemoorNorth Petherton5,9932,22987658213569183,909
SedgemoorPuriton and Woolavington3,9131,36865015730660122,553
SedgemoorQuantocks3,8011,5615571827594122,481
SedgemoorWest Polden1,990842228121376461,298
West SomersetAlcombe2,3405934702241884471,526
West SomersetBrendon Hills1,034535535117143673
West SomersetCarhampton and Withycombe9673751107931333631
West SomersetCrowcombe and Stogumber1,033464916218373675
West SomersetDulverton and District2,140983152140506471,396
West SomersetDunster and Timberscombe1,0173931307323423664
West SomersetGreater Exmoor943507402816213615
West SomersetMinehead Central3,8951,33856735522247122,541
West SomersetMinehead North1,8026171611432391051,175
West SomersetMinehead South2,015610421165674561,314
West SomersetOld Cleeve1,843750201152326261,203
West SomersetPorlock and District1,967770181179965161,283
West SomersetQuantock Vale1,766751211115323751,151
West SomersetWatchet3,17887572030211057102,074
West SomersetWest Quantock890391845819253580
West SomersetWilliton2,250572490289813171,470
 Total80,48929,92116,8926,3273,4851,36127358,259

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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