Broadland: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Broadland: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Keith Simpson  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 77,334
Turnout: 72.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,40657.9%54.2%
LAB16,59029.6%30.0%
LIB4,4497.9%8.0%
UKIP1,5942.8%5.2%
Green9321.7%2.2%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority15,81628.3%Pred Maj 24.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
86%
LAB
14%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Broadland : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Broadland constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right8° Right
National Position9° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%57%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%89%88%
Good Education36%37%39%
Good Job50%53%51%
High SEC53%53%51%
Average Age52.849.448.5
ABC1 Class53%55%53%

Broadland ranks #266 for "Leave", #153 for "Right" and #143 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Broadland: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Broadland: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Broadland

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Broadland at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Broadland. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

BroadlandActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BroadlandAcle2015844356034300
BroadlandAylsham20154,2261,0823,5121,37700
BroadlandBlofield with South Walsham20152,4701,0404127470827
BroadlandBrundall20153,09278269260600
BroadlandBurlingham201566637213725400
BroadlandBuxton20154841545182651150
BroadlandColtishall201582932817519700
BroadlandDrayton North2015706042529200
BroadlandDrayton South2015807034826600
BroadlandEynesford2015706065335300
BroadlandGreat Witchingham2015767394361000
BroadlandHevingham2015776033738700
BroadlandHorsford and Felthorpe20151,6814491,08159100
BroadlandMarshes201582638018933600
BroadlandPlumstead201595101933333960
BroadlandReepham2015693060922500
BroadlandSpixworth with St Faiths20151,63802,30385300
BroadlandTaverham North20152,01101,41956200
BroadlandTaverham South20153,02904585415180
BroadlandWroxham20152,1924571,35054500
North NorfolkAstley2015734233003440
North NorfolkLancaster North20151,6231,156002800
North NorfolkLancaster South20151,5158192794741500
North NorfolkThe Raynhams2015727288002390
North NorfolkWalsingham201568721602441050
North NorfolkWensum20155401452162831390

BroadlandTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BroadlandAcle2,2029033810367001,651
BroadlandAylsham5,7821,7964601,493585004,334
BroadlandBlofield with South Walsham4,3791,47562124644604943,282
BroadlandBrundall4,5492,038515456399003,408
BroadlandBurlingham2,075725405149276001,555
BroadlandBuxton2,03047915351326211401,521
BroadlandColtishall2,119861341182205001,589
BroadlandDrayton North2,5589510573393001,917
BroadlandDrayton South1,8437840338259001,381
BroadlandEynesford2,5888000740400001,940
BroadlandGreat Witchingham1,9457353773460001,458
BroadlandHevingham2,2458700378434001,682
BroadlandHorsford and Felthorpe3,8451,274340819448002,881
BroadlandMarshes2,548911419209371001,910
BroadlandPlumstead2,463937019032839001,845
BroadlandReepham2,1327250637235001,597
BroadlandSpixworth with St Faiths4,2531,08901,531567003,187
BroadlandTaverham North4,2371,60001,129447003,176
BroadlandTaverham South3,6341,815027432431002,723
BroadlandWroxham3,9931,444301889359002,993
North NorfolkAstley1,7597382340034601,318
North NorfolkLancaster North2,7141,0797690018602,034
North NorfolkLancaster South3,2571,14261821035711302,440
North NorfolkThe Raynhams2,0088723460028701,505
North NorfolkWalsingham1,712704221025010801,283
North NorfolkWensum1,81055414922129014301,357
 Total74,68027,3016,65011,5238,0021,99749455,967

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

BroadlandEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BroadlandAcle2,2801,0344628565501,651
BroadlandAylsham5,9872,2431,401533837404,334
BroadlandBlofield with South Walsham4,5351,9211,150117791503,282
BroadlandBrundall4,7112,095955253713403,408
BroadlandBurlingham2,14984757463581301,555
BroadlandBuxton2,102826450148465101,521
BroadlandColtishall2,19496447910731801,589
BroadlandDrayton North2,6491,06459519358701,917
BroadlandDrayton South1,90888735210336301,381
BroadlandEynesford2,6801,099566188533501,941
BroadlandGreat Witchingham2,0148614809531901,458
BroadlandHevingham2,3251,11435811489801,683
BroadlandHorsford and Felthorpe3,9821,63391922895602,881
BroadlandMarshes2,6391,09163798741001,910
BroadlandPlumstead2,5511,148487683710501,845
BroadlandReepham2,208924403193413701,598
BroadlandSpixworth with St Faiths4,4041,6739564061391303,187
BroadlandTaverham North4,3881,8868013591052403,175
BroadlandTaverham South3,7631,800627156618102,725
BroadlandWroxham4,1351,7788292461281302,994
North NorfolkAstley1,822767347821610601,318
North NorfolkLancaster North2,8101,042773136285502,034
North NorfolkLancaster South3,3731,2868411721053702,441
North NorfolkThe Raynhams2,07987840812888301,505
North NorfolkWalsingham1,77377134868494601,282
North NorfolkWensum1,874776390110364501,357
 Total74,68032,40816,5884,4491,594933055,967

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Broadland

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Broadland.

BroadlandPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BroadlandAcle2,280972468851041481,651
BroadlandAylsham5,9872,0811,41853318696204,334
BroadlandBlofield with South Walsham4,5351,7981,16311715732153,282
BroadlandBrundall4,7111,96796825315252163,408
BroadlandBurlingham2,14978958063952171,555
BroadlandBuxton2,102769456148825971,521
BroadlandColtishall2,194905485107691671,589
BroadlandDrayton North2,6499926021931031791,916
BroadlandDrayton South1,908835357103691061,380
BroadlandEynesford2,6801,026574188994591,941
BroadlandGreat Witchingham2,01480648695372771,458
BroadlandHevingham2,3251,0513651141291781,684
BroadlandHorsford and Felthorpe3,9821,52593022816321132,880
BroadlandMarshes2,6391,020644981192091,910
BroadlandPlumstead2,5511,079494688111591,846
BroadlandReepham2,208864409193794571,597
BroadlandSpixworth with St Faiths4,4041,55496840621429153,186
BroadlandTaverham North4,3881,76781335918040153,174
BroadlandTaverham South3,7631,69863815612595132,725
BroadlandWroxham4,1351,66684124619928142,994
North NorfolkAstley1,822718352824711361,318
North NorfolkLancaster North2,810966781136766692,034
North NorfolkLancaster South3,3731,19585017216350112,441
North NorfolkThe Raynhams2,079822414128449171,506
North NorfolkWalsingham1,77372335368795361,282
North NorfolkWensum1,874725395110685261,356
 Total74,68030,31316,8044,4492,9191,22425955,968

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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