Bromsgrove: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bromsgrove: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Sajid Javid  (CON)
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 73,571
Turnout: 73.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,49362.0%58.9%
LAB16,92031.3%30.3%
LIB2,4884.6%4.7%
Green1,1392.1%3.2%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
CON Majority16,57330.7%Pred Maj 28.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LAB
11%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Bromsgrove : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bromsgrove constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right2° Right
National Position10° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%59%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health49%45%48%
UK Born96%89%88%
Good Education42%35%39%
Good Job60%48%51%
High SEC62%46%51%
Average Age51.748.748.5
ABC1 Class63%49%53%

Bromsgrove ranks #280 for "Leave", #129 for "Right" and #137 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bromsgrove: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Bromsgrove: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Bromsgrove

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Bromsgrove at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Bromsgrove. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

BromsgroveActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BromsgroveAlvechurch South20151,1520041600
BromsgroveAlvechurch Village2015746004644260
BromsgroveAston Fields2015928628002390
BromsgroveAvoncroft2015862409000447
BromsgroveBarnt Green and Hopwood201563700001,066
BromsgroveBelbroughton and Romsley20154,0076360001,363
BromsgroveBromsgrove Central20151,0107430000
BromsgroveCatshill North2015683568001310
BromsgroveCatshill South20158306100000
BromsgroveCharford2015346616038400
BromsgroveCofton2015956382003160
BromsgroveDrakes Cross20156860000925
BromsgroveHagley East20155880000942
BromsgroveHagley West201570000001,349
BromsgroveHill Top20154029040000
BromsgroveHollywood20158720000876
BromsgroveLickey Hills20151,0180746000
BromsgroveLowes Hill20151,0007780000
BromsgroveMarlbrook20151,148444002510
BromsgroveNorton2015943467001660
BromsgrovePerryfields2015603323000111
BromsgroveRock Hill2015702724151000
BromsgroveRubery North20156311,1330000
BromsgroveRubery South20157701,0170000
BromsgroveSanders Park20158049440000
BromsgroveSidemoor2015450809036300
BromsgroveSlideslow20151,32643013201260
BromsgroveTardebigge201598224702261650
BromsgroveWythall East201566700001,028
BromsgroveWythall West201561301272770499

BromsgroveTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BromsgroveAlvechurch South2,2531,22000441001,661
BromsgroveAlvechurch Village2,0476880042839301,509
BromsgroveAston Fields2,6251,0006770025801,935
BromsgroveAvoncroft2,3428664110004491,726
BromsgroveBarnt Green and Hopwood2,28362900001,0531,682
BromsgroveBelbroughton and Romsley5,1512,5334020008613,796
BromsgroveBromsgrove Central2,5831,09780700001,904
BromsgroveCatshill North2,3488557110016401,730
BromsgroveCatshill South2,20393668800001,624
BromsgroveCharford2,6905109070566001,983
BromsgroveCofton1,9128143250026901,408
BromsgroveDrakes Cross2,43776500001,0311,796
BromsgroveHagley East2,12460200009641,566
BromsgroveHagley West2,75569400001,3372,031
BromsgroveHill Top1,84341894000001,358
BromsgroveHollywood2,38987800008821,760
BromsgroveLickey Hills2,14891406690001,583
BromsgroveLowes Hill2,6981,11887000001,988
BromsgroveMarlbrook2,3211,0654120023301,710
BromsgroveNorton2,1119314610016401,556
BromsgrovePerryfields1,10147225300087812
BromsgroveRock Hill2,6138578841840001,925
BromsgroveRubery North2,4456451,15700001,802
BromsgroveRubery South2,5318041,06200001,866
BromsgroveSanders Park2,7149201,08000002,000
BromsgroveSidemoor2,6375399690435001,943
BromsgroveSlideslow2,9381,426462142013502,165
BromsgroveTardebigge2,7741,239312028520802,044
BromsgroveWythall East2,23064700009971,644
BromsgroveWythall West2,082620012928005051,534
 Total73,32826,70213,7901,1242,4351,8248,16654,041

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

BromsgroveEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BromsgroveAlvechurch South2,2601,3262684602001,660
BromsgroveAlvechurch Village2,05496933066014401,509
BromsgroveAston Fields2,6341,09566766010601,934
BromsgroveAvoncroft2,3501,0775746001501,726
BromsgroveBarnt Green and Hopwood2,2911,17636912401401,683
BromsgroveBelbroughton and Romsley5,1682,9067816704203,796
BromsgroveBromsgrove Central2,5921,1256469703601,904
BromsgroveCatshill North2,3569007204506401,729
BromsgroveCatshill South2,2108966475502601,624
BromsgroveCharford2,6998989878601201,983
BromsgroveCofton1,91885737970010301,409
BromsgroveDrakes Cross2,4451,2923889302201,795
BromsgroveHagley East2,1311,167308820901,566
BromsgroveHagley West2,7641,4804141300802,032
BromsgroveHill Top1,8495857114301901,358
BromsgroveHollywood2,3971,3373387201401,761
BromsgroveLickey Hills2,1551,0611653530301,582
BromsgroveLowes Hill2,7071,0878215702301,988
BromsgroveMarlbrook2,3291,13741949010501,710
BromsgroveNorton2,1189784744006401,556
BromsgrovePerryfields1,105516250310150812
BromsgroveRock Hill2,62295582912701501,926
BromsgroveRubery North2,4538299322002201,803
BromsgroveRubery South2,5399228963801001,866
BromsgroveSanders Park2,7239649159302902,001
BromsgroveSidemoor2,64685095710603101,944
BromsgroveSlideslow2,9481,43252315105902,165
BromsgroveTardebigge2,7831,4205053009002,045
BromsgroveWythall East2,2371,185382690901,645
BromsgroveWythall West2,0891,07232912301001,534
 Total73,32833,49416,9242,48901,139054,041

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bromsgrove

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bromsgrove.

BromsgrovePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BromsgroveAlvechurch South2,2601,27525447463801,660
BromsgroveAlvechurch Village2,054923314674416101,509
BromsgroveAston Fields2,6341,036647675612801,934
BromsgroveAvoncroft2,3501,02455661503401,725
BromsgroveBarnt Green and Hopwood2,2911,125352125493301,684
BromsgroveBelbroughton and Romsley5,1682,790742691108503,796
BromsgroveBromsgrove Central2,5921,06762698555701,903
BromsgroveCatshill North2,35684770246508301,728
BromsgroveCatshill South2,21084663056474401,623
BromsgroveCharford2,69983796787583401,983
BromsgroveCofton1,918814365714111901,410
BromsgroveDrakes Cross2,4451,23737094524201,795
BromsgroveHagley East2,1311,11929283452701,566
BromsgroveHagley West2,7641,418393131593102,032
BromsgroveHill Top1,84954369744393401,357
BromsgroveHollywood2,3971,28332173513401,762
BromsgroveLickey Hills2,1551,013157354401901,583
BromsgroveLowes Hill2,7071,02680158584501,988
BromsgroveMarlbrook2,3291,085401505012401,710
BromsgroveNorton2,11893045841458201,556
BromsgrovePerryfields1,1054912423124240812
BromsgroveRock Hill2,622896809128563701,926
BromsgroveRubery North2,45377491321524201,802
BromsgroveRubery South2,53986587739543101,866
BromsgroveSanders Park2,72390389494585202,001
BromsgroveSidemoor2,646791937107575301,945
BromsgroveSlideslow2,9481,366501152638302,165
BromsgroveTardebigge2,7831,357484315911302,044
BromsgroveWythall East2,2371,13536570482801,646
BromsgroveWythall West2,0891,025313124452701,534
 Total73,32831,84116,3802,5191,5611,744054,045

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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