Buckingham: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Buckingham: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: John Bercow  (CON)
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate: 79,616
Turnout: 66.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,29965.1%61.4%
Green8,57416.3%16.8%
MIN5,63810.7%10.7%
UKIP4,1687.9%10.3%
LAB00.0%0.4%
LIB00.0%0.0%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority25,72548.8%Pred Maj 44.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
Green
1%
MIN
0%
UKIP
0%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Buckingham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Buckingham constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position17° Right4° Right
National Position11° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %48%52%52%
British Identity30%29%29%
Good Health52%49%48%
UK Born93%88%88%
Good Education48%43%39%
Good Job63%56%51%
High SEC65%57%51%
Average Age51.249.248.5
ABC1 Class68%60%53%

Buckingham ranks #449 for "Leave", #28 for "Right" and #115 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Buckingham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Buckingham: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Buckingham

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Buckingham at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Buckingham. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

BuckinghamActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham North20152,6171,39305954130
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham South20152,2692,351060500
Aylesbury ValeEdlesborough2015-100000
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse20152,6257742,9192,4946180
Aylesbury ValeGreat Brickhill and Newton Longville20154,085007276830
Aylesbury ValeGreat Horwood20151,3230005290
Aylesbury ValeGrendon Underwood and Brill20151,06802134272460
Aylesbury ValeHaddenham and Stone20156,43307712,5442,3111,885
Aylesbury ValeLong Crendon20151,08324002572650
Aylesbury ValeLuffield Abbey2015952002083300
Aylesbury ValeMarsh Gibbon20151,026041338900
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton20153,1096763,2462,5334200
Aylesbury ValeOakley20151,2800035300
Aylesbury ValePitstone and Cheddington20153,84507156791,2950
Aylesbury ValeQuainton20151,023004180432
Aylesbury ValeSteeple Claydon2015933004492840
Aylesbury ValeStewkley20151,221002844220
Aylesbury ValeTingewick20151,154003402820
Aylesbury ValeWaddesdon2015799039240200
Aylesbury ValeWatermead2015825049435400
Aylesbury ValeWing20151,2100039200
Aylesbury ValeWingrave201554000208194828
Aylesbury ValeWinslow20152,32402,7937185850
WycombeIcknield20151,02900326186374
WycombeThe Risboroughs20154,6750007255,824

BuckinghamTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham North4,9791,763939040127803,381
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham South4,2941,2661,3120338002,916
Aylesbury ValeEdlesborough2,2381,520000001,520
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse1,31424873276236580891
Aylesbury ValeGreat Brickhill and Newton Longville4,3692,2060039336902,968
Aylesbury ValeGreat Horwood2,5921,25700050301,760
Aylesbury ValeGrendon Underwood and Brill3,0871,146022945826402,097
Aylesbury ValeHaddenham and Stone6,9092,16502598567786344,692
Aylesbury ValeLong Crendon2,6401,052233025025801,793
Aylesbury ValeLuffield Abbey2,6091,1320024739201,771
Aylesbury ValeMarsh Gibbon2,5189600386364001,710
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton1,36128863300234390924
Aylesbury ValeOakley2,2581,20200331001,533
Aylesbury ValePitstone and Cheddington4,9251,968036634866303,345
Aylesbury ValeQuainton2,4579110037203851,668
Aylesbury ValeSteeple Claydon2,4149180044227901,639
Aylesbury ValeStewkley2,7671,1910027741201,880
Aylesbury ValeTingewick2,6371,1640034328401,791
Aylesbury ValeWaddesdon2,3558020394404001,600
Aylesbury ValeWatermead52717601067600358
Aylesbury ValeWing2,4551,25900408001,667
Aylesbury ValeWingrave2,223461001771657061,509
Aylesbury ValeWinslow4,5841,12701,35434828403,113
WycombeIcknield2,608952003021723461,772
WycombeThe Risboroughs6,4521,8250002832,2744,382
 Total77,57228,9592,6203,6707,6055,4814,34552,680

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

BuckinghamEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham North5,1102,199002796312713,380
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham South4,4071,931002434872552,916
Aylesbury ValeEdlesborough2,2971,2740052112821,520
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse1,3494930013018188892
Aylesbury ValeGreat Brickhill and Newton Longville4,4842,139002304311672,967
Aylesbury ValeGreat Horwood2,6601,2500049377851,761
Aylesbury ValeGrendon Underwood and Brill3,1681,383002303531312,097
Aylesbury ValeHaddenham and Stone7,0912,787003799026244,692
Aylesbury ValeLong Crendon2,7101,236001123281171,793
Aylesbury ValeLuffield Abbey2,6781,175001263651041,770
Aylesbury ValeMarsh Gibbon2,5841,205001662171211,709
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton1,3975540011417086924
Aylesbury ValeOakley2,3171,17500138135861,534
Aylesbury ValePitstone and Cheddington5,0552,225002036962223,346
Aylesbury ValeQuainton2,5221,051001551742881,668
Aylesbury ValeSteeple Claydon2,4781,057001782991061,640
Aylesbury ValeStewkley2,8401,286001283621041,880
Aylesbury ValeTingewick2,7061,229001583031001,790
Aylesbury ValeWaddesdon2,4171,049002092141281,600
Aylesbury ValeWatermead54124200345132359
Aylesbury ValeWing2,5201,212001811751001,668
Aylesbury ValeWingrave2,282755001032164351,509
Aylesbury ValeWinslow4,7051,973002536252633,114
WycombeIcknield2,6771,148001232352661,772
WycombeThe Risboroughs6,6222,273001965341,3794,382
 Total77,57234,301004,1698,5735,64052,680

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Buckingham

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Buckingham.

BuckinghamPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham North5,1102,0731303596482873,380
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham South4,4071,8221103125022692,916
Aylesbury ValeEdlesborough2,2971,2176088120891,520
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse1,3494603015118692892
Aylesbury ValeGreat Brickhill and Newton Longville4,4842,0281103004461812,966
Aylesbury ValeGreat Horwood2,6601,1847091386931,761
Aylesbury ValeGrendon Underwood and Brill3,1681,305802793641412,097
Aylesbury ValeHaddenham and Stone7,0912,6121804909266464,692
Aylesbury ValeLong Crendon2,7101,169701543371251,792
Aylesbury ValeLuffield Abbey2,6781,109701683741121,770
Aylesbury ValeMarsh Gibbon2,5841,141702062261291,709
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton1,3975204013617590925
Aylesbury ValeOakley2,3171,11860174143931,534
Aylesbury ValePitstone and Cheddington5,0552,1001302827132373,345
Aylesbury ValeQuainton2,522989601941832961,668
Aylesbury ValeSteeple Claydon2,478996602173071141,640
Aylesbury ValeStewkley2,8401,216701723721131,880
Aylesbury ValeTingewick2,7061,162702003121081,789
Aylesbury ValeWaddesdon2,417989602472221351,599
Aylesbury ValeWatermead54122910425334359
Aylesbury ValeWing2,5201,150602201841081,668
Aylesbury ValeWingrave2,282699601392244421,510
Aylesbury ValeWinslow4,7051,8571203266412773,113
WycombeIcknield2,6771,082701652442741,772
WycombeThe Risboroughs6,6222,1101702995571,3994,382
 Total77,57232,33720205,4118,8455,88452,679

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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