Bury St Edmunds: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bury St Edmunds: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Jo Churchill  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 87,758
Turnout: 70.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,79459.2%56.1%
LAB18,35329.5%28.6%
LIB3,5655.7%5.8%
Green2,5964.2%5.5%
OTH8521.4%0.6%
UKIP00.0%3.5%
CON Majority18,44129.7%Pred Maj 27.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LAB
11%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Bury St Edmunds : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bury St Edmunds constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right8° Right
National Position8° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%57%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job52%53%51%
High SEC54%53%51%
Average Age50.449.448.5
ABC1 Class55%55%53%

Bury St Edmunds ranks #355 for "Leave", #119 for "Right" and #187 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bury St Edmunds: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Bury St Edmunds: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Bury St Edmunds

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Bury St Edmunds at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Bury St Edmunds. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Bury St EdmundsActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton20156870000670
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash20151,071013703820
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton20151,61909087501,4240
Mid SuffolkGislingham20151,0060006070
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden20150000-10
Mid SuffolkNeedham Market201591302,2284704090
Mid SuffolkOnehouse2015002303437340
Mid SuffolkRattlesden20155150728000
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham20152,70359631708290
Mid SuffolkRingshall201574003382574860
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central20151,8315052326077430
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North20155,9451,28401,1322,2260
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South20158560768574352934
Mid SuffolkStowupland20155830006860
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett20152,37706065235760
Mid SuffolkWoolpit20157430004580
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate20152,06269163507590
St EdmundsburyEastgate20156125180000
St EdmundsburyFornham20158943360000
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton20151,0542640000
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham20159054110000
St EdmundsburyMinden20151,83758305438610
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall20155,0819610001,428
St EdmundsburyNorthgate20155025210000
St EdmundsburyPakenham20159263210000
St EdmundsburyRisbygate2015926558009281,067
St EdmundsburyRougham20159673510000
St EdmundsburySouthgate20152,68658649045000
St EdmundsburySt Olaves20156771,161000835
St EdmundsburyWestgate20152,09357305290771

Bury St EdmundsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton1,83467100006551,326
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash2,0129800125034901,454
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton4,1151,024057547590102,975
Mid SuffolkGislingham2,00490300054501,448
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden1,64900001,19201,192
Mid SuffolkNeedham Market3,43456401,37629025302,483
Mid SuffolkOnehouse1,7850022733972501,291
Mid SuffolkRattlesden1,58247406700001,144
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham3,4361,510333177046302,483
Mid SuffolkRingshall2,664783035727251401,926
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central3,3751,14031414437846302,439
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North7,4323,01765205741,13005,373
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South3,77567006024502767322,730
Mid SuffolkStowupland1,71757000067101,241
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett3,3251,400035730833902,404
Mid SuffolkWoolpit1,50567300041501,088
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate3,7271,340449413049302,695
St EdmundsburyEastgate1,88773962500001,364
St EdmundsburyFornham1,53080430200001,106
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton1,65995924000001,199
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham1,69884438300001,227
St EdmundsburyMinden3,5731,241394036758202,584
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall6,0172,9585600008314,349
St EdmundsburyNorthgate1,99870973600001,445
St EdmundsburyPakenham2,5941,39248300001,875
St EdmundsburyRisbygate3,851741446007438542,784
St EdmundsburyRougham1,75993333900001,272
St EdmundsburySouthgate3,4471,589347290266002,492
St EdmundsburySt Olaves3,4646341,0880007822,504
St EdmundsburyWestgate3,1431,199328030304422,272
 Total85,99130,4618,0195,3134,02210,0544,29662,165

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Bury St EdmundsEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton1,87284930362037761,327
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash2,0531,08623157069111,454
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton4,2001,7247972500179252,975
Mid SuffolkGislingham2,0451,04523343011991,449
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden1,68347947925019991,191
Mid SuffolkNeedham Market3,5051,181629581073192,483
Mid SuffolkOnehouse1,82263943197011771,291
Mid SuffolkRattlesden1,61564222224303081,145
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham3,5071,7514871010126182,483
Mid SuffolkRingshall2,7191,1544961370121191,927
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central3,4441,3797671690108162,439
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North7,5853,2631,6411760244495,373
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South3,8531,288982284086902,730
Mid SuffolkStowupland1,75274535221011491,241
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett3,3931,584547177081142,403
Mid SuffolkWoolpit1,5367282383408091,089
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate3,8041,4538442400143142,694
St EdmundsburyEastgate1,9267375552404181,365
St EdmundsburyFornham1,5617662892402161,106
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton1,6939242351601851,198
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham1,7338213384301961,227
St EdmundsburyMinden3,6461,512840770138162,583
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall6,1412,9501,0801530601064,349
St EdmundsburyNorthgate2,0396867062601971,444
St EdmundsburyPakenham2,6471,34145721038171,874
St EdmundsburyRisbygate3,9301,2471,15310601731042,783
St EdmundsburyRougham1,7958603701402271,273
St EdmundsburySouthgate3,5181,598639208031162,492
St EdmundsburySt Olaves3,5351,0361,26177035952,504
St EdmundsburyWestgate3,2081,32775480057542,272
 Total85,99136,79518,3563,56602,59884962,165

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bury St Edmunds

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bury St Edmunds.

Bury St EdmundsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton1,872808290637063321,326
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash2,0531,04122058458651,455
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton4,2001,63376825297215112,976
Mid SuffolkGislingham2,0451,001222444413541,450
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden1,683442467263821341,190
Mid SuffolkNeedham Market3,5051,1056055828010382,483
Mid SuffolkOnehouse1,822599418984013231,290
Mid SuffolkRattlesden1,615607211244364431,145
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham3,5071,6754631027915682,483
Mid SuffolkRingshall2,7191,0954771386414581,927
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central3,4441,3047431707813772,439
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North7,5853,0981,588179177310215,373
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South3,8531,204955286117130382,730
Mid SuffolkStowupland1,752707340224012941,242
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett3,3931,5105231787610962,402
Mid SuffolkWoolpit1,53669522735359341,089
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate3,8041,3708182428417462,694
St EdmundsburyEastgate1,92669554225435731,365
St EdmundsburyFornham1,56173227825353431,107
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton1,69388722317373221,198
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham1,73378332644383331,227
St EdmundsburyMinden3,6461,433815788216872,583
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall6,1412,8171,037156171124454,350
St EdmundsburyNorthgate2,03964269227453631,445
St EdmundsburyPakenham2,6471,28443922626171,875
St EdmundsburyRisbygate3,9301,1621,126108124219442,783
St EdmundsburyRougham1,79582135815403731,274
St EdmundsburySouthgate3,5181,522615209796072,492
St EdmundsburySt Olaves3,5359591,2367911377402,504
St EdmundsburyWestgate3,2081,257732828990232,273
 Total85,99134,88817,7543,6062,1583,40236262,170

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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