Caerphilly: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Caerphilly: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Wayne David  (LAB)
County/Area: Gwent (Wales)
Electorate: 64,381
Turnout: 64.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB22,49154.5%54.9%
CON10,41325.2%21.4%
Plaid5,96214.4%14.4%
UKIP1,2593.0%5.5%
LIB7251.8%1.8%
Green4471.1%1.6%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LAB Majority12,07829.2%Pred Maj 33.5%
Chance of
winning
LAB
93%
CON
6%
Plaid
1%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Caerphilly : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Caerphilly constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position15° Left10° Left
National Position3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity23%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job48%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age48.649.648.5
ABC1 Class46%47%53%

Caerphilly ranks #259 for "Leave", #581 for "Right" and #392 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Caerphilly: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Caerphilly: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Caerphilly

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Caerphilly at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Caerphilly. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

CaerphillyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
CaerphillyAber Valley201201,7500002,396176
CaerphillyBargoed201202,8940001,1860
CaerphillyBedwas, Trethomas and Machen201205,8910009222,860
CaerphillyGilfach20120553000910
CaerphillyHengoed201209740001,1610
CaerphillyLlanbradach2012956500001,47194
CaerphillyMorgan Jones20124741,4050002,2350
CaerphillyNelson201201,496157000978
CaerphillyPenyrheol201203,7130004,659572
CaerphillySt Cattwg201203,5410005500
CaerphillySt James20124682,0530001,7100
CaerphillySt Martins201201,5050003,2831,577
CaerphillyYstrad Mynach201201,0130001,4230

CaerphillyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CaerphillyAber Valley4,90901,3070001,7901313,228
CaerphillyBargoed4,50702,10200086202,964
CaerphillyBedwas, Trethomas and Machen7,77003,1120004871,5115,110
CaerphillyGilfach1,45708230001350958
CaerphillyHengoed4,00001,2000001,43102,631
CaerphillyLlanbradach3,209875940001,344862,111
CaerphillyMorgan Jones4,9263731,1060001,76003,239
CaerphillyNelson3,35801,2561320008212,209
CaerphillyPenyrheol9,00402,4580003,0853795,922
CaerphillySt Cattwg5,64903,21600049903,715
CaerphillySt James4,2953121,3710001,14202,825
CaerphillySt Martins6,05809420002,0559873,984
CaerphillyYstrad Mynach3,65109990001,40302,402
 Total62,79377220,4861320015,9933,91541,298

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

CaerphillyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CaerphillyAber Valley5,0336411,736331095265703,228
CaerphillyBargoed4,6214072,04424651341102,964
CaerphillyBedwas, Trethomas and Machen7,9661,2583,107641543848805,109
CaerphillyGilfach1,49412768624369780960
CaerphillyHengoed4,1015571,472221082944302,631
CaerphillyLlanbradach3,29060993054954338002,111
CaerphillyMorgan Jones5,0519891,512581152753903,240
CaerphillyNelson3,4435901,25189753217202,209
CaerphillyPenyrheol9,2321,6183,025781877194305,922
CaerphillySt Cattwg5,7925462,6434678839303,714
CaerphillySt James4,4048541,44424563940602,823
CaerphillySt Martins6,2111,5171,5121621265761003,984
CaerphillyYstrad Mynach3,7436991,13147562744102,401
 Total62,79310,41222,4937251,2604455,961041,298

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Caerphilly

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Caerphilly.

CaerphillyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CaerphillyAber Valley5,0335111,7493319170657163,227
CaerphillyBargoed4,6213252,0532411724411102,964
CaerphillyBedwas, Trethomas and Machen7,9661,0513,1286428567488265,109
CaerphillyGilfach1,494101689245213783960
CaerphillyHengoed4,1014501,4832217544443132,630
CaerphillyLlanbradach3,2905249395414955380112,112
CaerphillyMorgan Jones5,0518581,5265819845539163,240
CaerphillyNelson3,4435011,2608913244172112,209
CaerphillyPenyrheol9,2321,3783,05078339104943305,922
CaerphillySt Cattwg5,7924352,6544614823393143,713
CaerphillySt James4,4047401,4562412855406142,823
CaerphillySt Martins6,2111,3561,52916222879610203,984
CaerphillyYstrad Mynach3,7436021,1414711840441122,401
 Total62,7938,83222,6577252,2606635,96119641,294

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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