Camborne and Redruth: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Camborne and Redruth: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: George Eustice  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 67,462
Turnout: 71.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON23,00147.5%44.4%
LAB21,42444.2%43.2%
LIB2,9796.1%6.2%
Green1,0522.2%3.3%
UKIP00.0%3.0%
CON Majority1,5773.3%Pred Maj 1.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
54%
LAB
46%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Camborne and Redruth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Camborne and Redruth constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Left1° Right
National Position3° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education36%40%39%
Good Job43%50%51%
High SEC44%52%51%
Average Age51.050.548.5
ABC1 Class43%54%53%

Camborne and Redruth ranks #203 for "Leave", #428 for "Right" and #303 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Camborne and Redruth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Camborne and Redruth: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Camborne and Redruth

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Camborne and Redruth at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Camborne and Redruth. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Camborne and RedruthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves201331920003400211
CornwallCamborne Roskear20134754350237068
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren2013243197022534104
CornwallCamborne Treslothan20131361786117158297
CornwallCamborne Treswithian201321622002320204
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day201301110234131791
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock2013856203043400
CornwallCrowan and Wendron2013290100000978
CornwallFour Lanes201317316902390258
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth20134141186131142431
CornwallHayle North2013011802600716
CornwallHayle South2013018103280617
CornwallIllogan20133311131572590290
CornwallLanner and Stithians2013085014001,101
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias20134101293314130160
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath2013012380828100
CornwallPool and Tehidy2013244344024200
CornwallRedruth Central2013257160022100
CornwallRedruth North2013036502660443
CornwallRedruth South2013031101730342
CornwallSt Agnes2013398147613000
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage20136316903555020

Camborne and RedruthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves2,949636399067804212,134
CornwallCamborne Roskear3,6221,025939051101472,622
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren3,41574860606931053202,472
CornwallCamborne Treslothan3,4043724871674681598122,465
CornwallCamborne Treswithian2,985535545057505052,160
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day2,469015703301851,1161,788
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock3,7101,5403650781002,686
CornwallCrowan and Wendron1,879288990009721,359
CornwallFour Lanes3,516525513072507832,546
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth2,48154015480406555621,797
CornwallHayle North3,7470293064501,7752,713
CornwallHayle South3,2990384069601,3082,388
CornwallIllogan3,69977126336660306752,678
CornwallLanner and Stithians3,7550174028702,2572,718
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias3,33968721655469202682,417
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath3,56102621,718598002,578
CornwallPool and Tehidy3,2446909730685002,348
CornwallRedruth Central2,9908725430750002,165
CornwallRedruth North4,72501,162084701,4113,420
CornwallRedruth South3,1840868048309542,305
CornwallSt Agnes43410840166000314
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage537158170891250389
 Total66,9449,4959,4593,05111,54262914,28648,462

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Camborne and RedruthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves2,9721,1568668502702,134
CornwallCamborne Roskear3,6501,1931,3346902602,622
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren3,4411,1501,1687507902,472
CornwallCamborne Treslothan3,4309881,16321609802,465
CornwallCamborne Treswithian3,0081,0021,0468402702,159
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day2,48885374558013101,787
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock3,7391,7878121507102,685
CornwallCrowan and Wendron1,8948204913001901,360
CornwallFour Lanes3,5431,2261,17411902702,546
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth2,5009916498307301,796
CornwallHayle North3,7761,2251,31010407302,712
CornwallHayle South3,3251,1271,1478602802,388
CornwallIllogan3,7281,3891,01623703602,678
CornwallLanner and Stithians3,7841,4131,1966104802,718
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias3,3651,25980830704402,418
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath3,58979681592004602,577
CornwallPool and Tehidy3,2699211,3496701002,347
CornwallRedruth Central3,0131,1439119501502,164
CornwallRedruth North4,7621,1752,08911404103,419
CornwallRedruth South3,2091,0171,1785705302,305
CornwallSt Agnes4371387593090315
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage5412328430700389
 Total66,94423,00121,4262,97801,051048,462

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Camborne and Redruth

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Camborne and Redruth.

Camborne and RedruthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves2,9721,09084486635102,134
CornwallCamborne Roskear3,6501,1121,30670785502,621
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren3,4411,0741,142767310602,471
CornwallCamborne Treslothan3,4309121,1372177312502,464
CornwallCamborne Treswithian3,0089351,02385645102,158
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day2,488798726595315101,787
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock3,7391,704784168010102,685
CornwallCrowan and Wendron1,89477847731403401,360
CornwallFour Lanes3,5431,1481,147120765502,546
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth2,50093663084539301,796
CornwallHayle North3,7761,1411,2821058110302,712
CornwallHayle South3,3251,0531,12287715402,387
CornwallIllogan3,7281,306988238806602,678
CornwallLanner and Stithians3,7841,3291,16762817802,717
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias3,3651,184783308727102,418
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath3,589717788921777502,578
CornwallPool and Tehidy3,2698491,32468703602,347
CornwallRedruth Central3,0131,07688896643902,163
CornwallRedruth North4,7621,0702,0531161027903,420
CornwallRedruth South3,2099461,15458697802,305
CornwallSt Agnes43712872939120314
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage54122080312740389
 Total66,94421,50620,9172,9991,4411,587048,450

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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