Cambridgeshire North West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cambridgeshire North West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Shailesh Vara  (CON)
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 93,223
Turnout: 68.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON37,52958.6%54.9%
LAB19,52130.5%30.9%
LIB3,1685.0%5.0%
UKIP2,5183.9%6.3%
Green1,2552.0%2.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority18,00828.1%Pred Maj 24.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
86%
LAB
14%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Cambridgeshire North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cambridgeshire North West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right8° Right
National Position14° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%57%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born89%89%88%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job54%53%51%
High SEC55%53%51%
Average Age47.949.448.5
ABC1 Class57%55%53%

Cambridgeshire North West ranks #188 for "Leave", #51 for "Right" and #46 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cambridgeshire North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Cambridgeshire North West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Cambridgeshire North West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Cambridgeshire North West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Cambridgeshire North West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Cambridgeshire North WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
HuntingdonshireEarith20152,199570073700
HuntingdonshireEllington201596411161822100
HuntingdonshireElton and Folksworth2014531127027300
HuntingdonshireRamsey20152,234001,76300
HuntingdonshireSawtry2014877239081300
HuntingdonshireSomersham20152,010534072200
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East201462122615658200
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South201486634024658500
HuntingdonshireStilton20151,113269033400
HuntingdonshireUpwood and The Raveleys20151,037019738200
HuntingdonshireWarboys and Bury201486417213857600
HuntingdonshireYaxley and Farcet20152,7661,01601,45100
PeterboroughBarnack2012572143012300
PeterboroughFletton and Woodston20151,7981,43700511804
PeterboroughGlinton and Wittering201482920504640379
PeterboroughNorthborough20151,140003681790
PeterboroughOrton Longueville20151,3981,12201,1282340
PeterboroughOrton Waterville20152,53287409243190
PeterboroughOrton with Hampton20152,4761,3284981,0474980
PeterboroughStanground Central20153,1492,30401,560376324
PeterboroughStanground East2015775403001360

Cambridgeshire North WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireEarith4,4651,9535060654003,113
HuntingdonshireEllington2,33882195526188001,630
HuntingdonshireElton and Folksworth1,9607791860401001,366
HuntingdonshireRamsey6,3192,462001,943004,405
HuntingdonshireSawtry4,7961,52041401,409003,343
HuntingdonshireSomersham4,3551,8694960671003,036
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East1541140010
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South21000001
HuntingdonshireStilton2,2751,0292490309001,587
HuntingdonshireUpwood and The Raveleys2,5371,1350216418001,769
HuntingdonshireWarboys and Bury4,5511,5673122501,044003,173
HuntingdonshireYaxley and Farcet8,1012,9851,09701,566005,648
PeterboroughBarnack2,1101,0042510216001,471
PeterboroughFletton and Woodston8,3362,2971,836006531,0275,813
PeterboroughGlinton and Wittering5,3171,637405091607493,707
PeterboroughNorthborough1,9699280029914601,373
PeterboroughOrton Longueville7,4821,8791,50801,51631405,217
PeterboroughOrton Waterville6,0882,312798084429104,245
PeterboroughOrton with Hampton10,0422,9651,5905961,25459607,001
PeterboroughStanground Central6,4671,8411,34709122201894,509
PeterboroughStanground East2,2589294830016301,575
 Total91,78331,91711,5741,58914,5642,3831,96563,992

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Cambridgeshire North WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireEarith4,5352,0856961811014903,112
HuntingdonshireEllington2,3751,029258302231901,631
HuntingdonshireElton and Folksworth1,99193632741491401,367
HuntingdonshireRamsey6,4182,9159412253042104,406
HuntingdonshireSawtry4,8712,0928521662033003,343
HuntingdonshireSomersham4,4232,036719146855003,036
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East1553110010
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South21000001
HuntingdonshireStilton2,3111,12334259521101,587
HuntingdonshireUpwood and The Raveleys2,5771,221297184452101,768
HuntingdonshireWarboys and Bury4,6221,9707802501432903,172
HuntingdonshireYaxley and Farcet8,2283,4101,7081743045305,649
PeterboroughBarnack2,1431,05431461241601,469
PeterboroughFletton and Woodston8,4672,7322,6431335225205,812
PeterboroughGlinton and Wittering5,4002,3569562361283003,706
PeterboroughNorthborough2,00098823557445001,374
PeterboroughOrton Longueville7,5992,2532,27618536214005,216
PeterboroughOrton Waterville6,1842,4901,36915411012204,245
PeterboroughOrton with Hampton10,2003,7752,34446920121307,002
PeterboroughStanground Central6,5682,1691,9081192278604,509
PeterboroughStanground East2,29388855423604801,573
 Total91,78337,52819,5223,1662,5181,254063,992

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cambridgeshire North West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cambridgeshire North West.

Cambridgeshire North WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireEarith4,5351,96970818117565143,112
HuntingdonshireEllington2,375968264302622781,631
HuntingdonshireElton and Folksworth1,99188533241812161,366
HuntingdonshireRamsey6,4182,75095822540844204,405
HuntingdonshireSawtry4,8711,96786516628247163,343
HuntingdonshireSomersham4,4231,92273114615766143,036
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East1553110010
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South21000001
HuntingdonshireStilton2,3111,06434859901971,587
HuntingdonshireUpwood and The Raveleys2,5771,155304184873081,768
HuntingdonshireWarboys and Bury4,6221,85179225021845153,171
HuntingdonshireYaxley and Farcet8,2283,1991,73017443882265,649
PeterboroughBarnack2,14399932061592471,470
PeterboroughFletton and Woodston8,4672,5152,666133189282275,812
PeterboroughGlinton and Wittering5,4002,21797023621649173,705
PeterboroughNorthborough2,00093724057765761,373
PeterboroughOrton Longueville7,5992,0582,296185485167245,215
PeterboroughOrton Waterville6,1842,3311,386154210144204,245
PeterboroughOrton with Hampton10,2003,5132,371469367249337,002
PeterboroughStanground Central6,5682,0001,926119334109214,509
PeterboroughStanground East2,29382956023975671,572
 Total91,78335,13519,7703,1664,0321,58329663,982

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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