Cambridgeshire South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cambridgeshire South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Heidi Allen  (CON)
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 85,257
Turnout: 76.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,63151.8%48.1%
LAB17,67927.2%27.6%
LIB12,10218.6%18.6%
Green1,5122.3%2.8%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority15,95224.6%Pred Maj 20.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
78%
LAB
19%
LIB
3%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Cambridgeshire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cambridgeshire South constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right8° Right
National Position3° Int10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %39%57%52%
British Identity32%27%29%
Good Health53%47%48%
UK Born88%89%88%
Good Education53%37%39%
Good Job64%53%51%
High SEC67%53%51%
Average Age49.749.448.5
ABC1 Class69%55%53%

Cambridgeshire South ranks #555 for "Leave", #198 for "Right" and #451 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cambridgeshire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Cambridgeshire South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Cambridgeshire South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Cambridgeshire South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Cambridgeshire South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Cambridgeshire SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CambridgeQueen Edith's20151,0931,1021,5022135460
South CambridgeshireBar Hill20151,3004433155302650
South CambridgeshireBarton2015978233002980
South CambridgeshireBassingbourn20146341768104760
South CambridgeshireBourn20153,0021,559007660
South CambridgeshireCaldecote201425697551000
South CambridgeshireComberton201582619918001680
South CambridgeshireCottenham20151,9697137555264640
South CambridgeshireDuxford201591923527501690
South CambridgeshireFowlmere and Foxton201558311200106682
South CambridgeshireGamlingay2014536166946000
South CambridgeshireGirton201484933322703520
South CambridgeshireHardwick2015731188397104980
South CambridgeshireHarston and Hauxton201228383415000
South CambridgeshireHaslingfield and The Eversdens2012955251400516
South CambridgeshireLongstanton2012484623500190
South CambridgeshireMelbourn20143231391,13231800
South CambridgeshireMeldreth2014214116583000
South CambridgeshireOrwell and Barrington20155671226570970
South CambridgeshirePapworth and Elsworth20151,85145339203250
South CambridgeshireSawston20152,135888005530
South CambridgeshireSwavesey201444913077000
South CambridgeshireThe Abingtons2015959270013400
South CambridgeshireThe Mordens2012142602400549
South CambridgeshireThe Shelfords and Stapleford20152,07688276806760
South CambridgeshireWhittlesford2012540119162000

Cambridgeshire SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CambridgeQueen Edith's6,9761,3201,3311,81525766005,383
South CambridgeshireBar Hill3,8691,36046433055527702,986
South CambridgeshireBarton1,9239622290029301,484
South CambridgeshireBassingbourn3,8921,39338717801,04603,004
South CambridgeshireBourn7,9133,4411,7870087806,106
South CambridgeshireCaldecote1,8714091558800001,444
South CambridgeshireComberton1,810840202183017101,396
South CambridgeshireCottenham6,1792,12176881356750004,769
South CambridgeshireDuxford2,147953244285017501,657
South CambridgeshireFowlmere and Foxton1,855563108001026581,431
South CambridgeshireGamlingay3,7739472931,6710002,911
South CambridgeshireGirton3,4891,298509347053802,692
South CambridgeshireHardwick2,05776419741510910201,587
South CambridgeshireHarston and Hauxton1,8495171527580001,427
South CambridgeshireHaslingfield and The Eversdens2,03412769685006881,569
South CambridgeshireLongstanton2,04098812771003881,574
South CambridgeshireMelbourn4,3085622421,968553003,325
South CambridgeshireMeldreth1,9463521919590001,502
South CambridgeshireOrwell and Barrington1,78754211762809301,380
South CambridgeshirePapworth and Elsworth3,7491,773434375031102,893
South CambridgeshireSawston5,4962,5321,0530065604,241
South CambridgeshireSwavesey1,8889972891710001,457
South CambridgeshireThe Abingtons1,7549522680133001,353
South CambridgeshireThe Mordens1,84826111044001,0101,425
South CambridgeshireThe Shelfords and Stapleford5,6062,040867755066404,326
South CambridgeshireWhittlesford2,0731,0522323160001,600
 Total84,13229,06610,82513,6472,1746,4662,74464,922

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Cambridgeshire SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CambridgeQueen Edith's7,0691,7642,0491,405016505,383
South CambridgeshireBar Hill3,9211,66281144606702,986
South CambridgeshireBarton1,94987038416906101,484
South CambridgeshireBassingbourn3,9441,808765284014703,004
South CambridgeshireBourn8,0193,3192,077534017706,107
South CambridgeshireCaldecote1,8966362475520901,444
South CambridgeshireComberton1,83481331224502601,396
South CambridgeshireCottenham6,2622,5841,259778014904,770
South CambridgeshireDuxford2,17697440125103101,657
South CambridgeshireFowlmere and Foxton1,88082443014103601,431
South CambridgeshireGamlingay3,8231,46148494502102,911
South CambridgeshireGirton3,5361,310808462011202,692
South CambridgeshireHardwick2,08584838034001901,587
South CambridgeshireHarston and Hauxton1,87464230046901501,426
South CambridgeshireHaslingfield and The Eversdens2,06159246247903601,569
South CambridgeshireLongstanton2,0671,0523341790901,574
South CambridgeshireMelbourn4,3661,4087211,17502103,325
South CambridgeshireMeldreth1,97260230655903401,501
South CambridgeshireOrwell and Barrington1,81170727138102001,379
South CambridgeshirePapworth and Elsworth3,7991,67680136305302,893
South CambridgeshireSawston5,5692,3771,405359010004,241
South CambridgeshireSwavesey1,91390731320503301,458
South CambridgeshireThe Abingtons1,7778513891120101,353
South CambridgeshireThe Mordens1,87381447712401101,426
South CambridgeshireThe Shelfords and Stapleford5,6812,1481,169865014504,327
South CambridgeshireWhittlesford2,10198232328201301,600
 Total84,13233,63117,67812,10401,511064,922

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cambridgeshire South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cambridgeshire South.

Cambridgeshire SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CambridgeQueen Edith's7,0691,5632,0701,405127193255,383
South CambridgeshireBar Hill3,9211,5508234467182142,986
South CambridgeshireBarton1,949814390169356971,484
South CambridgeshireBassingbourn3,9441,69677728471163143,005
South CambridgeshireBourn8,0193,0912,101534144209286,107
South CambridgeshireCaldecote1,896582253552341671,444
South CambridgeshireComberton1,834761317245333361,395
South CambridgeshireCottenham6,2622,4061,278778113174224,771
South CambridgeshireDuxford2,176912407251394081,657
South CambridgeshireFowlmere and Foxton1,880770436141344371,431
South CambridgeshireGamlingay3,8231,3524959456936132,910
South CambridgeshireGirton3,5361,20981846264126122,691
South CambridgeshireHardwick2,085789386340382771,587
South CambridgeshireHarston and Hauxton1,874589306469342271,427
South CambridgeshireHaslingfield and The Eversdens2,061533468479374471,568
South CambridgeshireLongstanton2,067993340179371771,573
South CambridgeshireMelbourn4,3661,2847341,1757938153,325
South CambridgeshireMeldreth1,972546312559364271,502
South CambridgeshireOrwell and Barrington1,811655276381332761,378
South CambridgeshirePapworth and Elsworth3,7991,5688123636868132,892
South CambridgeshireSawston5,5692,2181,421359100122204,240
South CambridgeshireSwavesey1,913852319205344171,458
South CambridgeshireThe Abingtons1,77780039411232861,352
South CambridgeshireThe Mordens1,873761483124341871,427
South CambridgeshireThe Shelfords and Stapleford5,6811,9861,186865102167204,326
South CambridgeshireWhittlesford2,101922329282382171,599
 Total84,13231,20217,93112,1041,5361,84629964,918

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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