Cambridgeshire South East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cambridgeshire South East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Lucy Frazer  (CON)
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 86,121
Turnout: 73.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,60153.3%49.6%
LAB17,44327.7%28.1%
LIB11,95819.0%19.0%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority16,15825.6%Pred Maj 21.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
81%
LAB
17%
LIB
2%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Cambridgeshire South East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cambridgeshire South East constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right8° Right
National Position10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %44%57%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health51%47%48%
UK Born89%89%88%
Good Education46%37%39%
Good Job58%53%51%
High SEC60%53%51%
Average Age49.449.448.5
ABC1 Class62%55%53%

Cambridgeshire South East ranks #503 for "Leave", #156 for "Right" and #367 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cambridgeshire South East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Cambridgeshire South East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Cambridgeshire South East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Cambridgeshire South East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Cambridgeshire South East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Cambridgeshire South EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East CambridgeshireBottisham20152,1026861,312000
East CambridgeshireBurwell20154,6341,2982,24003520
East CambridgeshireCheveley20152,37151152950100
East CambridgeshireDullingham Villages2015599277232000
East CambridgeshireEly East20151,89069194203850
East CambridgeshireEly North20154,2821,7942,55606160
East CambridgeshireEly South20151,979782976000
East CambridgeshireEly West20151,8095931,51006090
East CambridgeshireFordham Villages20152,429559590000
East CambridgeshireHaddenham20153,7239492,310543564127
East CambridgeshireIsleham2015015222500818
East CambridgeshireSoham North20152,577612846000
East CambridgeshireSoham South20153,9341,2371,28900767
East CambridgeshireStretham20152,46848863802660
East CambridgeshireThe Swaffhams2015626147377000
South CambridgeshireBalsham20151,40331686402220
South CambridgeshireFulbourn20158463938150155435
South CambridgeshireHiston and Impington20151,9171,2641,85006950
South CambridgeshireLinton201453415562400465
South CambridgeshireMilton20156013451,24316800
South CambridgeshireTeversham201554035618201510
South CambridgeshireThe Wilbrahams201244318888000
South CambridgeshireWaterbeach2012919191502000
South CambridgeshireWillingham and Over20151,7815757064972780

Cambridgeshire South EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East CambridgeshireBottisham3,0111,1503757180002,243
East CambridgeshireBurwell4,6591,887529912014303,471
East CambridgeshireCheveley3,0311,369295305289002,258
East CambridgeshireDullingham Villages1,6466633072570001,227
East CambridgeshireEly East2,9581,066390531021702,204
East CambridgeshireEly North5,4431,8787871,121027004,056
East CambridgeshireEly South3,2841,2965126390002,447
East CambridgeshireEly West3,285979321817033002,447
East CambridgeshireFordham Villages2,8051,4193263450002,090
East CambridgeshireHaddenham4,4191,492380926218226513,293
East CambridgeshireIsleham1,7460165245008901,300
East CambridgeshireSoham North3,7971,8074295930002,829
East CambridgeshireSoham South4,8461,965618644003833,610
East CambridgeshireStretham2,8971,380273357014902,159
East CambridgeshireThe Swaffhams1,4886031423630001,108
South CambridgeshireBalsham3,4661,292291795020402,582
South CambridgeshireFulbourn3,48683138680101524272,597
South CambridgeshireHiston and Impington7,8831,9661,2961,897071305,872
South CambridgeshireLinton3,580801233936006982,668
South CambridgeshireMilton3,5016653821,375186002,608
South CambridgeshireTeversham2,083682450230019101,553
South CambridgeshireThe Wilbrahams2,0419373981860001,521
South CambridgeshireWaterbeach4,1361,7573659600003,082
South CambridgeshireWillingham and Over5,0781,75656769649027403,783
 Total84,56929,64110,21716,6491,1832,8692,44963,008

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Cambridgeshire South EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East CambridgeshireBottisham3,0661,2575094780002,244
East CambridgeshireBurwell4,7452,0517606600003,471
East CambridgeshireCheveley3,0871,5464742370002,257
East CambridgeshireDullingham Villages1,6767892801590001,228
East CambridgeshireEly East3,0121,2065664310002,203
East CambridgeshireEly North5,5432,0711,2377470004,055
East CambridgeshireEly South3,3441,3046405030002,447
East CambridgeshireEly West3,3451,1817335340002,448
East CambridgeshireFordham Villages2,8561,3944562390002,089
East CambridgeshireHaddenham4,5001,8348156430003,292
East CambridgeshireIsleham1,7785855201970001,302
East CambridgeshireSoham North3,8671,7227143930002,829
East CambridgeshireSoham South4,9352,0411,0555150003,611
East CambridgeshireStretham2,9501,4584282720002,158
East CambridgeshireThe Swaffhams1,5156242382460001,108
South CambridgeshireBalsham3,5301,5025824970002,581
South CambridgeshireFulbourn3,5501,1178746060002,597
South CambridgeshireHiston and Impington8,0282,3722,1401,3600005,872
South CambridgeshireLinton3,6461,2308346030002,667
South CambridgeshireMilton3,5651,0178077840002,608
South CambridgeshireTeversham2,1216596472470001,553
South CambridgeshireThe Wilbrahams2,0788374172670001,521
South CambridgeshireWaterbeach4,2121,7106727000003,082
South CambridgeshireWillingham and Over5,1712,0971,0476390003,783
 Total84,56933,60417,44511,95700063,008

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cambridgeshire South East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cambridgeshire South East.

Cambridgeshire South EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East CambridgeshireBottisham3,0661,1735184785312102,244
East CambridgeshireBurwell4,7451,9217746608218163,471
East CambridgeshireCheveley3,0871,4624832375312102,257
East CambridgeshireDullingham Villages1,67674328515929661,228
East CambridgeshireEly East3,0121,1245754315211102,203
East CambridgeshireEly North5,5431,9191,2537479621194,055
East CambridgeshireEly South3,3441,2126505035813112,447
East CambridgeshireEly West3,3451,0897435345813112,448
East CambridgeshireFordham Villages2,8561,3164642394911102,089
East CambridgeshireHaddenham4,5001,7118286437817153,292
East CambridgeshireIsleham1,77853652519731761,302
East CambridgeshireSoham North3,8671,6167253936715132,829
East CambridgeshireSoham South4,9351,9061,0695158519173,611
East CambridgeshireStretham2,9501,3774362725111102,157
East CambridgeshireThe Swaffhams1,51558324224626651,108
South CambridgeshireBalsham3,5301,4055924976113122,580
South CambridgeshireFulbourn3,5501,0208846066113122,596
South CambridgeshireHiston and Impington8,0282,1522,1631,36013930275,871
South CambridgeshireLinton3,6461,1308446036314122,666
South CambridgeshireMilton3,5659198177846213122,607
South CambridgeshireTeversham2,12160165324737871,553
South CambridgeshireThe Wilbrahams2,07878042326736871,521
South CambridgeshireWaterbeach4,2121,5956847007316143,082
South CambridgeshireWillingham and Over5,1711,9551,0626398920183,783
 Total84,56931,24517,69211,9571,48932729063,000

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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