Cardiff South and Penarth: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cardiff South and Penarth: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Stephen Doughty  (LAB)
County/Area: South Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 76,499
Turnout: 66.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB30,18259.5%59.9%
CON15,31830.2%26.4%
Plaid2,1624.3%4.3%
LIB1,4302.8%2.8%
UKIP9421.9%4.3%
Green5321.0%1.6%
OTH1700.3%0.8%
LAB Majority14,86429.3%Pred Maj 33.5%
Chance of
winning
LAB
94%
CON
6%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Cardiff South and Penarth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cardiff South and Penarth constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position9° Left10° Left
National Position7° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %46%53%52%
British Identity31%26%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born87%95%88%
Good Education40%36%39%
Good Job54%46%51%
High SEC49%46%51%
Average Age45.849.648.5
ABC1 Class55%47%53%

Cardiff South and Penarth ranks #478 for "Leave", #500 for "Right" and #483 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cardiff South and Penarth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Cardiff South and Penarth: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Cardiff South and Penarth

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Cardiff South and Penarth at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Cardiff South and Penarth. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Cardiff South and PenarthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
CardiffButetown201212677767349723860
CardiffGrangetown20128255,2251,49504204,369161
CardiffLlanrumney20129624,9671970945890
CardiffPontprennau / Old St Mellons20121,9442,31922001072030
CardiffRumney20121,1012,18285053141362
CardiffSplott20124184,7422,6350157614222
CardiffTrowbridge20121,0224,53488703874640
Vale of GlamorganCornerswell20127261,49464005900
Vale of GlamorganLlandough2012178374000740
Vale of GlamorganPlymouth20121,8781,145153004040
Vale of GlamorganSt Augustine's20121,2371,668002804100
Vale of GlamorganStanwell20126031,3170001520
Vale of GlamorganSully201280633006330148876

Cardiff South and PenarthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CardiffButetown7,1392891,7841,54611316588604,783
CardiffGrangetown13,6536043,8261,09503083,1991189,150
CardiffLlanrumney7,7987383,81215107245205,225
CardiffPontprennau / Old St Mellons11632384023079
CardiffRumney6,1721,1602,300900561493824,137
CardiffSplott9,3492983,3801,87801124381586,264
CardiffTrowbridge11,3861,0694,743928040548507,630
Vale of GlamorganCornerswell3,7216301,296560051202,494
Vale of GlamorganLlandough1,3912655570001100932
Vale of GlamorganPlymouth4,1231,4498841180031202,763
Vale of GlamorganSt Augustine's4,5971,0601,4290024035103,080
Vale of GlamorganStanwell3,1356111,33500015402,100
Vale of GlamorganSully3,135606248047601116592,100
 Total75,7158,81125,6325,8665891,3607,1621,31750,737

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Cardiff South and PenarthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CardiffButetown7,2131,2432,7893318796227114,784
CardiffGrangetown13,7942,4035,70216367133656249,148
CardiffLlanrumney7,8791,0093,714401511529155,225
CardiffPontprennau / Old St Mellons11737373012080
CardiffRumney6,2361,3972,4022110112170344,137
CardiffSplott9,4461,3144,2662986689202306,265
CardiffTrowbridge11,5042,0434,9911361039025797,629
Vale of GlamorganCornerswell3,7609081,32710036611342,494
Vale of GlamorganLlandough1,4053205493240252932
Vale of GlamorganPlymouth4,1661,5551,046871006222,762
Vale of GlamorganSt Augustine's4,6451,2651,51212212877933,080
Vale of GlamorganStanwell3,1677471,208632035712,099
Vale of GlamorganSully3,1671,07963933285120442,101
 Total75,71515,32030,1821,4299425332,16116950,737

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cardiff South and Penarth

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cardiff South and Penarth.

Cardiff South and PenarthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CardiffButetown7,2131,0592,808331203121227344,783
CardiffGrangetown13,7942,0515,739164289182656689,149
CardiffLlanrumney7,8798153,7344027442291295,225
CardiffPontprennau / Old St Mellons11734373212079
CardiffRumney6,2361,2382,4192120234170544,138
CardiffSplott9,4461,0734,291298218122202606,264
CardiffTrowbridge11,5041,7505,021137288130257457,628
Vale of GlamorganCornerswell3,7608121,3371009719113162,494
Vale of GlamorganLlandough1,40528455332275256932
Vale of GlamorganPlymouth4,1661,4491,05787771562152,762
Vale of GlamorganSt Augustine's4,6451,1471,5241228710379183,080
Vale of GlamorganStanwell3,1676661,21663711457112,098
Vale of GlamorganSully3,167998647333361220542,100
 Total75,71513,37630,3831,4312,1718002,16141050,732

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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