Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Overview

 Prediction: Plaid hold 

MP at 2017: Jonathan Edwards  (Plaid)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 55,976
Turnout: 73.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
Plaid16,12739.3%39.3%
LAB12,21929.8%30.2%
CON10,77826.3%22.4%
UKIP9852.4%4.8%
LIB9202.2%2.2%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
NAT Majority3,9089.5%Pred Maj 9.1%
Chance of
winning
Plaid
50%
LAB
34%
CON
15%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerPlaidLABCON
Economic Position15° Left10° Left
National Position3° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity21%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age52.749.648.5
ABC1 Class46%47%53%

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr ranks #404 for "Leave", #589 for "Right" and #459 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Carmarthen East and DinefwrActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
CarmarthenshireAbergwili201200000436600
CarmarthenshireAmmanford201204550004800
CarmarthenshireBetws20120325000155274
CarmarthenshireCenarth20129700006700
CarmarthenshireCilycwm201213600000571
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Gaeo201211700005020
CarmarthenshireGarnant201205200001490
CarmarthenshireGlanamman201202480004780
CarmarthenshireGorslas201208500007621,247
CarmarthenshireLlanddarog201200000360516
CarmarthenshireLlandeilo2012660000299912
CarmarthenshireLlandovery20122080000167682
CarmarthenshireLlandybie20121106580004891,237
CarmarthenshireLlanegwad201200000612508
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel Aberbythych2012630000468221
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel-ar-Arth201213700001,0740
CarmarthenshireLlangadog20120000089914
CarmarthenshireLlangeler201200000793606
CarmarthenshireLlangunnor201200000573395
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn201200000863253
CarmarthenshireLlanybydder201200000309755
CarmarthenshireManordeilo and Salem2012960000227560
CarmarthenshirePenygroes201292338000344139
CarmarthenshirePontamman201206520003210
CarmarthenshireQuarter Bach201204520006190
CarmarthenshireSaron2012957200001,140365
CarmarthenshireSt Ishmael201200000496587

Carmarthen East and DinefwrTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireAbergwili1,828000005667791,345
CarmarthenshireAmmanford2,130076300080501,568
CarmarthenshireBetws1,70505410002584561,255
CarmarthenshireCenarth1,74716300001,12301,286
CarmarthenshireCilycwm1,17416600000698864
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Gaeo1,25017400007460920
CarmarthenshireGarnant1,678096000027501,235
CarmarthenshireGlanamman1,848046500089501,360
CarmarthenshireGorslas3,21507030006311,0322,366
CarmarthenshireLlanddarog1,576000004776831,160
CarmarthenshireLlandeilo2,3158800003991,2171,704
CarmarthenshireLlandovery2,13030800002481,0111,567
CarmarthenshireLlandybie3,0931006010004461,1292,276
CarmarthenshireLlanegwad1,909000007686371,405
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel Aberbythych1,4418900006603121,061
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel-ar-Arth2,23418600001,45801,644
CarmarthenshireLlangadog1,50500000981,0091,107
CarmarthenshireLlangeler2,672000001,1158521,967
CarmarthenshireLlangunnor1,820000007935471,340
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn2,400000001,3664001,766
CarmarthenshireLlanybydder2,201000004701,1491,619
CarmarthenshireManordeilo and Salem1,78914300003388351,316
CarmarthenshirePenygroes2,2691686180006292541,669
CarmarthenshirePontamman2,13701,05400051901,573
CarmarthenshireQuarter Bach2,293071200097501,687
CarmarthenshireSaron3,254987430001,1773772,395
CarmarthenshireSt Ishmael2,134000007198511,570
 Total55,7471,6837,16000017,95414,22841,025

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Carmarthen East and DinefwrEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireAbergwili1,8364672903334052201,346
CarmarthenshireAmmanford2,139137728942065301,569
CarmarthenshireBetws1,7122755711921037001,256
CarmarthenshireCenarth1,7543251422531076301,286
CarmarthenshireCilycwm1,179429183453101750863
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Gaeo1,25525813616505040919
CarmarthenshireGarnant1,6855380419036801,235
CarmarthenshireGlanamman1,856138497928068801,360
CarmarthenshireGorslas3,2285299543371077902,366
CarmarthenshireLlanddarog1,5823903072223041601,158
CarmarthenshireLlandeilo2,3256194704644052501,704
CarmarthenshireLlandovery2,1397492928343040001,567
CarmarthenshireLlandybie3,1066659043470060302,276
CarmarthenshireLlanegwad1,9175012393627060201,405
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel Aberbythych1,4473291774515049501,061
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel-ar-Arth2,243379142513901,03201,643
CarmarthenshireLlangadog1,5115082484237027201,107
CarmarthenshireLlangeler2,6836273255763089501,967
CarmarthenshireLlangunnor1,8274092503928061301,339
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn2,4103244001832099201,766
CarmarthenshireLlanybydder2,2105953586745055401,619
CarmarthenshireManordeilo and Salem1,7966222374030038701,316
CarmarthenshirePenygroes2,2783007132244059001,669
CarmarthenshirePontamman2,146169853611053401,573
CarmarthenshireQuarter Bach2,3021187121356078801,687
CarmarthenshireSaron3,267397890297301,00502,394
CarmarthenshireSt Ishmael2,1434633957631060501,570
 Total55,74710,77512,217916983016,130041,025

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr.

Carmarthen East and DinefwrPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireAbergwili1,8364082963371852271,345
CarmarthenshireAmmanford2,139107731961465341,569
CarmarthenshireBetws1,7122205771956837071,257
CarmarthenshireCenarth1,7542691482567876371,287
CarmarthenshireCilycwm1,179391187455551755863
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Gaeo1,255218140163065045919
CarmarthenshireGarnant1,68541805116236811,234
CarmarthenshireGlanamman1,856108500947468841,360
CarmarthenshireGorslas3,2284269653313614779132,366
CarmarthenshireLlanddarog1,5823393122255741661,157
CarmarthenshireLlandeilo2,32554547846911052591,704
CarmarthenshireLlandovery2,1396812998386940081,566
CarmarthenshireLlandybie3,1065669143413314603122,276
CarmarthenshireLlanegwad1,9174402453666860281,405
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel Aberbythych1,4472831824544649561,061
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel-ar-Arth2,2433071495184101,03291,642
CarmarthenshireLlangadog1,5114602534268727261,108
CarmarthenshireLlangeler2,6835413345711712895111,967
CarmarthenshireLlangunnor1,8273512563965861371,339
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn2,41025340718771099291,766
CarmarthenshireLlanybydder2,21052436567901055491,619
CarmarthenshireManordeilo and Salem1,7965652434066838771,316
CarmarthenshirePenygroes2,2782347202285959081,668
CarmarthenshirePontamman2,146132857634553451,573
CarmarthenshireQuarter Bach2,302927151372478831,687
CarmarthenshireSaron3,26731089929128121,005112,394
CarmarthenshireSt Ishmael2,1433944027674960591,569
 Total55,7479,20512,3799161,97421716,13019641,017

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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