Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Simon Hart  (CON)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 58,548
Turnout: 72.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON19,77146.8%43.7%
LAB16,66139.5%38.4%
Plaid3,9339.3%9.3%
LIB9562.3%2.3%
UKIP9052.1%5.1%
Green00.0%1.1%
CON Majority3,1107.4%Pred Maj 5.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
60%
LAB
39%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position1° Left10° Left
National Position2° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity26%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job43%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age52.049.648.5
ABC1 Class44%47%53%

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South ranks #218 for "Leave", #367 for "Right" and #325 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North201204800001,481705
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South20120319000895799
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West2012000001,546896
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed201200000631827
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township201202280000714
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy201200000444393
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan201200000538543
CarmarthenshireSt Clears201200273000975
CarmarthenshireTrelech20120013300321471
CarmarthenshireWhitland20120811700230514
PembrokeshireAmroth201216700000313
PembrokeshireCarew2012000000-1
PembrokeshireEast Williamston20124100000884
PembrokeshireHundleton201201200000634
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly2012000000-1
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey201218500000362
PembrokeshireLamphey2012136850000455
PembrokeshireManorbier2012701320000803
PembrokeshireMartletwy201224200000533
PembrokeshireNarberth2012000000801
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural20128700000472
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central2012621900000177
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion201203950000338
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market201201650000361
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar20120-100000
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton2012000000500
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North201213600000304
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South201213600000336
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael201243200000489
PembrokeshirePenally2012255000027645
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot201233300000562
PembrokeshireTenby: North201215200005180
PembrokeshireTenby: South2012000000710

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,83305050001,5577412,803
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,87503330009358342,102
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,930000001,8191,0542,873
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,253000007139341,647
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,127037600001,1791,555
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,567000006085381,146
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,475000005375421,079
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,228003560001,2731,629
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,55200163003945781,135
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,689011925003377541,235
PembrokeshireAmroth92723600000442678
PembrokeshireCarew1,136000000831831
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,84060000001,2861,346
PembrokeshireHundleton1,403016300008631,026
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,6520000001,2081,208
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,16928900000566855
PembrokeshireLamphey1,2571851160000619920
PembrokeshireManorbier1,5607915000009111,140
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,04623900000526765
PembrokeshireNarberth1,4250000001,0421,042
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,15113100000711842
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,3281404300000401971
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion2,097082600007071,533
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,34103080000673981
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,50501,831000001,831
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton1,239000000906906
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,547350000007811,131
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South1,07122600000557783
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael1,788613000006941,307
PembrokeshirePenally1,300421000045574950
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,955532000008981,430
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,559259000088101,140
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,9290000001,4101,410
 Total57,7543,7605,157544008,23624,53342,230

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,8869201,1835733061002,803
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,9157409067526035602,103
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,9841,1179987135065202,873
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,2847725001539032101,647
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,156706745112906301,554
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,589554324822023701,145
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,4954863392025020901,079
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,25974053219625013601,629
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,5735422998917018801,135
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,7125554642219017401,234
PembrokeshireAmroth94043619911140180678
PembrokeshireCarew1,1524313437270230831
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,865718526104804301,345
PembrokeshireHundleton1,42253543682602001,025
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,675675457192203401,207
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,1855662249200350854
PembrokeshireLamphey1,27453232735130130920
PembrokeshireManorbier1,581597473173601801,141
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,06051719024150200766
PembrokeshireNarberth1,445525444101904501,043
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,16749727419180330841
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,3463475849110200971
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion2,126498948134203201,533
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,3593655667260180982
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,5393321,40323605901,832
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton1,2563904337480270905
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,56858546386001601,132
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South1,0864102889170580782
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael1,813843391133802201,307
PembrokeshirePenally1,318572208161201420950
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,982969346424502701,429
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,5805843002110022501,140
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,956717548753203901,411
 Total57,75419,77316,66195590503,933042,230

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South.

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,8868331,155581153261002,803
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,91567588576882435602,104
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,9841,028969731193365202,874
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,28472148316871932101,647
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,1566587291275186301,555
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,5895183129561323701,145
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,49545232821571220901,079
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,259689516197731813601,629
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,57350728890501318801,136
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,71251745223551417401,235
PembrokeshireAmroth94041519211348180678
PembrokeshireCarew1,1524053357519230830
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,8656765121187154301,344
PembrokeshireHundleton1,422503426956122001,026
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,6756374452057143401,207
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,18553921594510350853
PembrokeshireLamphey1,274503318354010130919
PembrokeshireManorbier1,5815624611869131801,141
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,06049318224379200765
PembrokeshireNarberth1,4454934331150124501,044
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,167471265194310330841
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,346317574103911200971
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion2,1264509321487173201,532
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,35933455685511180982
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,5392801,384386195901,831
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton1,25636242477510270905
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,568550452993131601,133
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South1,0863862809409580782
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael1,8138023781476152201,307
PembrokeshirePenally1,3185421981640111420949
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,9829253324387162701,430
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,58054928822431322501,140
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,9566735347673163901,411
 Total57,75418,46516,2339802,1384793,933042,228

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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