Ceredigion: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ceredigion: Overview

 Prediction: Plaid hold 

MP at 2017: Ben Lake  (Plaid)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 52,889
Turnout: 75.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
Plaid11,62329.2%29.2%
LIB11,51929.0%29.0%
LAB8,01720.2%19.2%
CON7,30718.4%15.5%
UKIP6021.5%4.4%
Green5421.4%2.5%
OTH1570.4%0.2%
NAT Majority1040.3%Pred Maj 0.2%
Chance of
winning
Plaid
33%
LIB
25%
LAB
25%
CON
16%
UKIP
2%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ceredigion : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ceredigion constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerPlaidLABCON
Economic Position12° Left10° Left
National Position10° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %45%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born94%95%88%
Good Education47%36%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age49.049.648.5
ABC1 Class52%47%53%

Ceredigion ranks #490 for "Leave", #547 for "Right" and #504 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ceredigion: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Ceredigion: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Ceredigion

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Ceredigion at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Ceredigion. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

CeredigionActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
CeredigionAberaeron20120065100620
CeredigionAberporth2012980000218500
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan2012500200004760
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch201200320001020
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi20120094001630
CeredigionAberystwyth Bronglais20124800004050
CeredigionAberystwyth Canol / Central2012220231001170
CeredigionAberystwyth Gogledd / North201229016800215107
CeredigionAberystwyth Penparcau201269031100693247
CeredigionAberystwyth Rheidol201222013700143327
CeredigionBeulah201239085005860
CeredigionBorth20127200000650
CeredigionCapel Dewi201200000270363
CeredigionCeulanamaesmawr201200291004690
CeredigionCiliau Aeron2012710324004050
CeredigionFaenor2012280515002450
CeredigionLampeter20124988413000262637
CeredigionLlanarth2012520251002840
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Padarn201219039002290
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Sulien201219046003380
CeredigionLlandyfriog201210600004850
CeredigionLlandysilio-gogo20126700000735
CeredigionLlandysul Town201200000373271
CeredigionLlanfarian2012270164003910
CeredigionLlanfihangel Ystrad201200303005500
CeredigionLlangeitho201200248000424
CeredigionLlangybi201200144004190
CeredigionLlanrhystyd201200504000165
CeredigionLlansantffraed201200141000842
CeredigionLlanwenog2012007200366395
CeredigionLledrod2012000000-1
CeredigionMelindwr201200255006010
CeredigionNew Quay201215900000249
CeredigionPen-parc201200000264584
CeredigionPenbryn2012008100318431
CeredigionTirymynach201200544002500
CeredigionTrefeurig201200000300422
CeredigionTregaron201200000-10
CeredigionTroedyraur201200000172361
CeredigionYstwyth2012340432002220

CeredigionTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CeredigionAberaeron1,0170068100650746
CeredigionAberporth1,73515300003407801,273
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan1,314660266006320964
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch82300458001460604
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi83100223003870610
CeredigionAberystwyth Bronglais1,484115000097301,088
CeredigionAberystwyth Canol / Central1,6957407760039301,243
CeredigionAberystwyth Gogledd / North1,964800466005972971,440
CeredigionAberystwyth Penparcau2,230860385008593061,636
CeredigionAberystwyth Rheidol1,859480297003107091,364
CeredigionBeulah1,176470103007120862
CeredigionBorth1,476108000009751,083
CeredigionCapel Dewi94800000297399696
CeredigionCeulanamaesmawr1,370003850062001,005
CeredigionCiliau Aeron1,4139204200052501,037
CeredigionFaenor1,8134708690041301,329
CeredigionLampeter2,09238691102002054981,534
CeredigionLlanarth1,154750362004100847
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Padarn73536073004300539
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Sulien1,702590142001,04701,248
CeredigionLlandyfriog1,30817200007870959
CeredigionLlandysilio-gogo1,43388000009631,051
CeredigionLlandysul Town1,01400000431313744
CeredigionLlanfarian1,101370228005430808
CeredigionLlanfihangel Ystrad1,493003890070601,095
CeredigionLlangeitho1,07300290000497787
CeredigionLlangybi1,04700196005720768
CeredigionLlanrhystyd1,14200631000207838
CeredigionLlansantffraed1,702001790001,0691,248
CeredigionLlanwenog1,322008400426460970
CeredigionLledrod1,5580000001,1431,143
CeredigionMelindwr1,443003150074301,058
CeredigionNew Quay76021700000340557
CeredigionPen-parc1,641000003758291,204
CeredigionPenbryn1,43400103004035461,052
CeredigionTirymynach1,378006930031801,011
CeredigionTrefeurig1,25500000382538920
CeredigionTregaron867000006360636
CeredigionTroedyraur93900000222466688
CeredigionYstwyth1,4755306790034901,081
 Total54,2161,6916919,7950016,25411,33539,766

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

CeredigionEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CeredigionAberaeron9927762451111514747
CeredigionAberporth1,693363314229431829691,272
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan1,2822001022541333874963
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch803261163031011463605
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi811591351771442192610
CeredigionAberystwyth Bronglais1,44816613923762951111,089
CeredigionAberystwyth Canol / Central1,65414518858823728311,244
CeredigionAberystwyth Gogledd / North1,91619524056693838841,440
CeredigionAberystwyth Penparcau2,175250399429221051961,635
CeredigionAberystwyth Rheidol1,813233376431154625861,365
CeredigionBeulah1,1471519918615103973861
CeredigionBorth1,440265401227232113981,084
CeredigionCapel Dewi9251851668927162085696
CeredigionCeulanamaesmawr1,3367213338541239811,005
CeredigionCiliau Aeron1,37817412835015436231,036
CeredigionFaenor1,76913311373713732611,330
CeredigionLampeter2,041287564348132729241,535
CeredigionLlanarth1,126177124278732543846
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Padarn71757124137922091539
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Sulien1,66020419830162551401,248
CeredigionLlandyfriog1,2762331411132594353959
CeredigionLlandysilio-gogo1,3983523191553617163101,052
CeredigionLlandysul Town9891231889329102964743
CeredigionLlanfarian1,074112135244543080808
CeredigionLlanfihangel Ystrad1,45617815632011442231,094
CeredigionLlangeitho1,04716919927115141146788
CeredigionLlangybi1,021941092043103471768
CeredigionLlanrhystyd1,114135121456551132837
CeredigionLlansantffraed1,6603103692923830199101,248
CeredigionLlanwenog1,29020823017711113294970
CeredigionLledrod1,5203153972033130157101,143
CeredigionMelindwr1,40811115532191344811,058
CeredigionNew Quay74124912694166614556
CeredigionPen-parc1,6013233192062618302101,204
CeredigionPenbryn1,399253225217152031291,051
CeredigionTirymynach1,344861485089225801,011
CeredigionTrefeurig1,22416223920713112825919
CeredigionTregaron84610167821333691636
CeredigionTroedyraur9162161769618101694689
CeredigionYstwyth1,439156765559228211,081
 Total54,2167,3058,01611,51760454311,62315739,766

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ceredigion

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ceredigion.

CeredigionPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CeredigionAberaeron99263584511561512746
CeredigionAberporth1,693317299230903629641,272
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan1,2821659625544143872963
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch803211093031951461604
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi811481281772892191610
CeredigionAberystwyth Bronglais1,448136131237343951101,088
CeredigionAberystwyth Canol / Central1,654119177588294728301,243
CeredigionAberystwyth Gogledd / North1,916160226567465238821,441
CeredigionAberystwyth Penparcau2,175205380430712851931,636
CeredigionAberystwyth Rheidol1,813191360432596225831,365
CeredigionBeulah1,1471249318640193971860
CeredigionBorth1,440226388228633613931,083
CeredigionCapel Dewi9251601588953262082696
CeredigionCeulanamaesmawr1,33659125385191839801,004
CeredigionCiliau Aeron1,378143121351441536211,037
CeredigionFaenor1,769109106737351532601,328
CeredigionLampeter2,041236546349654629221,536
CeredigionLlanarth1,12614711727935142541847
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Padarn717471181372172090539
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Sulien1,660167186302413851401,248
CeredigionLlandyfriog1,27619913311457214351960
CeredigionLlandysilio-gogo1,398314307156763216341,052
CeredigionLlandysul Town9891011799353192962743
CeredigionLlanfarian1,0749212724425123080808
CeredigionLlanfihangel Ystrad1,456146147321421542211,094
CeredigionLlangeitho1,04714119027244251143789
CeredigionLlangybi1,0217710320420163470767
CeredigionLlanrhystyd1,11411111445628141131837
CeredigionLlansantffraed1,660265354293854719941,247
CeredigionLlanwenog1,29017321917846243292971
CeredigionLledrod1,520274384204744615741,143
CeredigionMelindwr1,40891146321302144801,057
CeredigionNew Quay741229119943714612556
CeredigionPen-parc1,601280305207713530241,204
CeredigionPenbryn1,399215213218553531241,052
CeredigionTirymynach1,3447113950826825801,010
CeredigionTrefeurig1,22413322820844222822919
CeredigionTregaron8468363822993690635
CeredigionTroedyraur9161911689643191692688
CeredigionYstwyth1,43912872555331128201,081
 Total54,2166,1577,63211,5371,76997711,6236439,759

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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