Charnwood: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Charnwood: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Edward Argar  (CON)
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 78,071
Turnout: 70.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,31860.4%56.7%
LAB16,97730.8%31.2%
LIB2,0523.7%3.7%
UKIP1,4712.7%5.0%
Green1,0361.9%2.4%
OTH3220.6%1.0%
CON Majority16,34129.6%Pred Maj 25.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
87%
LAB
13%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Charnwood : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Charnwood constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right3° Right
National Position12° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%59%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born92%91%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job55%48%51%
High SEC56%47%51%
Average Age51.049.148.5
ABC1 Class57%50%53%

Charnwood ranks #222 for "Leave", #84 for "Right" and #100 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Charnwood: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Charnwood: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Charnwood

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Charnwood at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Charnwood. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

CharnwoodActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BlabyEllis20152,9159010000
BlabyFairestone20152,8748060000
BlabyForest2015-300000
BlabyMuxloe2015-200000
CharnwoodAnstey20152,7151,1601,1797394170
CharnwoodBirstall Wanlip20152,7671,8602,140000
CharnwoodBirstall Watermead20154,0372,0730000
CharnwoodEast Goscote2015738247000553
CharnwoodForest Bradgate20151,4594240000
CharnwoodMountsorrel20153,1471,36108354140
CharnwoodQueniborough20151,4754170000
CharnwoodRothley and Thurcaston20154,9561,495089900
CharnwoodSyston East20153,0631,429755000
CharnwoodSyston West20153,4571,7500000
CharnwoodThurmaston20156,0684,8440001,271
CharnwoodWreake Villages20151,4953580000
Hinckley and BosworthGroby201501,1312,41981402,391

CharnwoodTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BlabyEllis4,0382,20368100002,884
BlabyFairestone3,8482,14660200002,748
BlabyForest5,8004,142000004,142
BlabyMuxloe3,4262,446000002,446
CharnwoodAnstey5,3031,65670771945125403,787
CharnwoodBirstall Wanlip4,8211,4089461,0890003,443
CharnwoodBirstall Watermead5,4102,5521,31100003,863
CharnwoodEast Goscote2,3528062700006041,680
CharnwoodForest Bradgate2,7801,53844700001,985
CharnwoodMountsorrel5,5892,182943057928703,991
CharnwoodQueniborough2,4551,36738600001,753
CharnwoodRothley and Thurcaston5,1152,4637430447003,653
CharnwoodSyston East5,1032,1279925240003,643
CharnwoodSyston West5,3602,5411,28600003,827
CharnwoodThurmaston7,8832,8042,2380005875,629
CharnwoodWreake Villages2,4341,40233600001,738
Hinckley and BosworthGroby5,55206641,42047801,4033,965
 Total77,26933,78312,5523,7521,9555412,59455,177

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

CharnwoodEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BlabyEllis4,0802,000760731822112,884
BlabyFairestone3,8881,90268767642082,748
BlabyForest5,8603,414582583933164,142
BlabyMuxloe3,4622,0842705991952,446
CharnwoodAnstey5,3581,8051,213266285200163,785
CharnwoodBirstall Wanlip4,8711,6971,267381157683,444
CharnwoodBirstall Watermead5,4662,3531,2661147348103,864
CharnwoodEast Goscote2,37689663484455421,679
CharnwoodForest Bradgate2,8091,4804414611341,985
CharnwoodMountsorrel5,6472,2471,16497269200133,990
CharnwoodQueniborough2,4801,3233554317871,753
CharnwoodRothley and Thurcaston5,1682,5708272418239113,653
CharnwoodSyston East5,1562,0361,2242258561133,644
CharnwoodSyston West5,4162,1831,532391347153,829
CharnwoodThurmaston7,9652,6602,7045110762465,630
CharnwoodWreake Villages2,4591,3882923115931,738
Hinckley and BosworthGroby5,6101,2801,758470237124953,964
 Total77,26933,31816,9762,0521,4731,03632355,177

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Charnwood

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Charnwood.

CharnwoodPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BlabyEllis4,0801,892771738637242,883
BlabyFairestone3,8881,8006986712934212,749
BlabyForest5,8603,2605985813754354,142
BlabyMuxloe3,4621,993279596732162,446
CharnwoodAnstey5,3581,6641,228266374219333,784
CharnwoodBirstall Wanlip4,8711,5691,2803819694243,444
CharnwoodBirstall Watermead5,4662,2091,28111416468283,864
CharnwoodEast Goscote2,37683364188464501,680
CharnwoodForest Bradgate2,8091,406449464823131,985
CharnwoodMountsorrel5,6472,0981,17997363221313,989
CharnwoodQueniborough2,4801,258362435817151,753
CharnwoodRothley and Thurcaston5,1682,4348412426858283,653
CharnwoodSyston East5,1561,9001,23822517180303,644
CharnwoodSyston West5,4162,0401,5473910367333,829
CharnwoodThurmaston7,9652,4502,7265124091725,630
CharnwoodWreake Villages2,4591,323299315618111,738
Hinckley and BosworthGroby5,6101,1321,7734703301441133,962
 Total77,26931,26117,1902,0522,7741,32157755,175

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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