Chesham and Amersham: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Chesham and Amersham: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Cheryl Gillan  (CON)
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate: 71,465
Turnout: 77.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,51460.7%57.6%
LAB11,37420.6%19.5%
LIB7,17913.0%13.0%
Green1,6603.0%4.1%
UKIP1,5252.8%5.7%
CON Majority22,14040.1%Pred Maj 38.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
95%
LAB
4%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Chesham and Amersham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Chesham and Amersham constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right4° Right
National Position4° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %45%52%52%
British Identity33%29%29%
Good Health54%49%48%
UK Born89%88%88%
Good Education52%43%39%
Good Job67%56%51%
High SEC70%57%51%
Average Age52.049.248.5
ABC1 Class72%60%53%

Chesham and Amersham ranks #496 for "Leave", #77 for "Right" and #281 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Chesham and Amersham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Chesham and Amersham: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Chesham and Amersham

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Chesham and Amersham at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Chesham and Amersham. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Chesham and AmershamActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ChilternAmersham Common2015785051919400
ChilternAmersham Town20152,1094501,59745500
ChilternAmersham-on-the-Hill20153,02101,022000
ChilternAsheridge Vale and Lowndes20152,2404292,150000
ChilternAshley Green, Latimer and Chenies20159330431000
ChilternAustenwood2015829036112600
ChilternBallinger, South Heath and Chartridge201545706532171040
ChilternCentral20152,859001,13100
ChilternChalfont Common20152,779072453300
ChilternChalfont St Giles20157,4346668791,01500
ChilternChesham Bois and Weedon Hill20154,03673071432800
ChilternCholesbury, The Lee and Bellingdon2015864025438100
ChilternGold Hill201557915710628100
ChilternGreat Missenden20155310000815
ChilternHilltop and Townsend20152,0597671,1493973470
ChilternHolmer Green20153,6555830000
ChilternLittle Chalfont20153,113085558800
ChilternLittle Missenden20157800000732
ChilternNewtown201565243310501430
ChilternPenn and Coleshill2015-200000
ChilternPrestwood and Heath End20156,32471872599700
ChilternRidgeway2015283022800808
ChilternSeer Green201587401221690205
ChilternSt Mary's and Waterside20152,2387316603343600
ChilternVale2015555227285000

Chesham and AmershamTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChilternAmersham Common2,0728170540202001,559
ChilternAmersham Town3,7441,289275976278002,818
ChilternAmersham-on-the-Hill3,9312,21007480002,958
ChilternAsheridge Vale and Lowndes3,8091,3322551,2790002,866
ChilternAshley Green, Latimer and Chenies1,73489304120001,305
ChilternAustenwood1,7428260360126001,312
ChilternBallinger, South Heath and Chartridge1,76842506072029701,331
ChilternCentral3,4671,86900740002,609
ChilternChalfont Common3,1221,6180421310002,349
ChilternChalfont St Giles5,6663,172284375433004,264
ChilternChesham Bois and Weedon Hill4,1102,149389380175003,093
ChilternCholesbury, The Lee and Bellingdon1,8237910232349001,372
ChilternGold Hill1,737674183123327001,307
ChilternGreat Missenden1,85054900008431,392
ChilternHilltop and Townsend3,6281,19144466523020102,731
ChilternHolmer Green3,1832,06632900002,395
ChilternLittle Chalfont3,7881,9480535368002,851
ChilternLittle Missenden1,97676700007201,487
ChilternNewtown1,974727483117015901,486
ChilternPenn and Coleshill3,6002,709000002,709
ChilternPrestwood and Heath End5,2582,855324327450003,956
ChilternRidgeway2,0663340269009521,555
ChilternSeer Green1,838882012317102071,383
ChilternSt Mary's and Waterside3,8621,50549144422524202,907
ChilternVale1,6766562683370001,261
 Total73,42434,2543,7259,2704,5866992,72255,256

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Chesham and AmershamEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChilternAmersham Common2,017838334312403501,559
ChilternAmersham Town3,6441,488614569598602,816
ChilternAmersham-on-the-Hill3,8261,803538547145602,958
ChilternAsheridge Vale and Lowndes3,7071,297709730488202,866
ChilternAshley Green, Latimer and Chenies1,688894153223191701,306
ChilternAustenwood1,696870179208243001,311
ChilternBallinger, South Heath and Chartridge1,721681216297449301,331
ChilternCentral3,3741,7095251701426302,609
ChilternChalfont Common3,0391,615335295683702,350
ChilternChalfont St Giles5,5153,0486323791119304,263
ChilternChesham Bois and Weedon Hill4,0002,142502345376803,094
ChilternCholesbury, The Lee and Bellingdon1,774856248165663801,373
ChilternGold Hill1,691707370127752801,307
ChilternGreat Missenden1,8016875407848301,392
ChilternHilltop and Townsend3,5311,27674243610317402,731
ChilternHolmer Green3,0981,825310152901802,395
ChilternLittle Chalfont3,6871,806494401896002,850
ChilternLittle Missenden1,92387446688105001,488
ChilternNewtown1,9217244921292911201,486
ChilternPenn and Coleshill3,5042,360165143192202,709
ChilternPrestwood and Heath End5,1182,7016393941556703,956
ChilternRidgeway2,011521680192936901,555
ChilternSeer Green1,789864320120453501,384
ChilternSt Mary's and Waterside3,7591,35680243310720902,907
ChilternVale1,631572371246343801,261
 Total73,42433,51411,3767,1791,5251,663055,256

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Chesham and Amersham

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Chesham and Amersham.

Chesham and AmershamPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChilternAmersham Common2,017791315313875301,559
ChilternAmersham Town3,6441,40357957114411902,816
ChilternAmersham-on-the-Hill3,8261,7145055491019002,959
ChilternAsheridge Vale and Lowndes3,7071,21167473213511602,868
ChilternAshley Green, Latimer and Chenies1,688855144224543001,307
ChilternAustenwood1,696830168209604401,311
ChilternBallinger, South Heath and Chartridge1,7216412032988210801,332
ChilternCentral3,3741,6304931712219402,609
ChilternChalfont Common3,0391,5443142961336202,349
ChilternChalfont St Giles5,5152,91959338123013904,262
ChilternChesham Bois and Weedon Hill4,0002,04947134712510203,094
ChilternCholesbury, The Lee and Bellingdon1,7748152331661065401,374
ChilternGold Hill1,6916683541281154301,308
ChilternGreat Missenden1,80164552379469901,392
ChilternHilltop and Townsend3,5311,19470843718620602,731
ChilternHolmer Green3,0981,7532911531554302,395
ChilternLittle Chalfont3,6871,7204634021729202,849
ChilternLittle Missenden1,92382944889556701,488
ChilternNewtown1,9216794741307412901,486
ChilternPenn and Coleshill3,5042,278155144844702,708
ChilternPrestwood and Heath End5,1182,58260039626811103,957
ChilternRidgeway2,0114746611931408701,555
ChilternSeer Green1,789822303121875101,384
ChilternSt Mary's and Waterside3,7591,26876643519524302,907
ChilternVale1,631534355247725301,261
 Total73,42431,84810,7937,2113,1272,282055,261

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)