Chester, City of: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Chester, City of: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Chris Matheson  (LAB)
County/Area: Cheshire (North West)
Electorate: 72,859
Turnout: 77.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB32,02356.8%57.2%
CON22,84740.5%36.5%
LIB1,5512.7%2.8%
UKIP00.0%2.5%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LAB Majority9,17616.3%Pred Maj 20.6%
Chance of
winning
LAB
81%
CON
19%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Chester, City of : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Chester, City of constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position1° Left6° Left
National Position1° Int2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %47%54%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health50%46%48%
UK Born92%92%88%
Good Education48%37%39%
Good Job56%49%51%
High SEC56%48%51%
Average Age48.248.648.5
ABC1 Class60%50%53%

Chester, City of ranks #459 for "Leave", #373 for "Right" and #412 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Chester, City of: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Chester, City of: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Chester, City of

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Chester, City of at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Chester, City of. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Chester, City ofActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterBlacon20153,02910,04702,8961,0120
Cheshire West and ChesterBoughton20159331,30802623080
Cheshire West and ChesterChester City2015607909941251780
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages20155,4782,2605875858770
Cheshire West and ChesterDodleston and Huntington20151,43971732125600
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon20151,13824499001240
Cheshire West and ChesterGarden Quarter20154919538208020
Cheshire West and ChesterGreat Boughton20154,3442,8379091,2497970
Cheshire West and ChesterHandbridge Park20155,4102,8385468021,0140
Cheshire West and ChesterHoole20152,2414,0441,9391,1499510
Cheshire West and ChesterLache20157841,341892401190
Cheshire West and ChesterLittle Neston and Burton20154,1353,5811,3977360106
Cheshire West and ChesterNewton20153,1923,7731,3286261,058551
Cheshire West and ChesterSaughall and Mollington20151,280572881720737
Cheshire West and ChesterUpton20153,6133,1521,4055454960

Chester, City ofTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterBlacon10,6141,4784,90201,41349408,287
Cheshire West and ChesterBoughton4,2681,1061,550031136503,332
Cheshire West and ChesterChester City2,8927161,07311114821002,258
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages3,2001,39857715014922402,498
Cheshire West and ChesterDodleston and Huntington3,0521,255625280223002,383
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon204731663080160
Cheshire West and ChesterGarden Quarter4,3037091,37511801,15703,359
Cheshire West and ChesterGreat Boughton6,9712,3321,52348867142805,442
Cheshire West and ChesterHandbridge Park6,9012,7471,44127740751505,387
Cheshire West and ChesterHoole7,1561,2132,1881,04962251505,587
Cheshire West and ChesterLache4,4921,0691,82812132716203,507
Cheshire West and ChesterLittle Neston and Burton367119103402103286
Cheshire West and ChesterNewton7,4271,7582,0787313455833035,798
Cheshire West and ChesterSaughall and Mollington3,4701,2175448416407012,710
Cheshire West and ChesterUpton6,9542,1291,85882832129205,428
 Total72,27119,31921,6814,3405,1224,9531,00756,422

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Chester, City ofEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterBlacon10,7002,1656,091310008,287
Cheshire West and ChesterBoughton4,3031,1932,119190003,331
Cheshire West and ChesterChester City2,9168591,363360002,258
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages3,2261,4431,009470002,499
Cheshire West and ChesterDodleston and Huntington3,0771,302997840002,383
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon206915712000160
Cheshire West and ChesterGarden Quarter4,3381,0512,1941140003,359
Cheshire West and ChesterGreat Boughton7,0282,7292,5941190005,442
Cheshire West and ChesterHandbridge Park6,9572,7542,4302030005,387
Cheshire West and ChesterHoole7,2141,8243,4822810005,587
Cheshire West and ChesterLache4,5291,1452,321410003,507
Cheshire West and ChesterLittle Neston and Burton37012914512000286
Cheshire West and ChesterNewton7,4872,2203,3242530005,797
Cheshire West and ChesterSaughall and Mollington3,4981,4521,235220002,709
Cheshire West and ChesterUpton7,0112,4892,6602790005,428
 Total72,27122,84632,0211,55300056,422

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Chester, City of

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Chester, City of.

Chester, City ofPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterBlacon10,7001,8366,1253220845418,287
Cheshire West and ChesterBoughton4,3031,0612,133198418163,331
Cheshire West and ChesterChester City2,9167691,372365712112,257
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages3,2261,3441,019476314122,499
Cheshire West and ChesterDodleston and Huntington3,0771,2071,007846013122,383
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon206855812411161
Cheshire West and ChesterGarden Quarter4,3389182,2081148418173,359
Cheshire West and ChesterGreat Boughton7,0282,5132,61611913730275,442
Cheshire West and ChesterHandbridge Park6,9572,5402,45220313530275,387
Cheshire West and ChesterHoole7,2141,6023,50528114031285,587
Cheshire West and ChesterLache4,5291,0062,335418819173,506
Cheshire West and ChesterLittle Neston and Burton37011814612721286
Cheshire West and ChesterNewton7,4871,9903,34825314532295,797
Cheshire West and ChesterSaughall and Mollington3,4981,3441,246226815132,708
Cheshire West and ChesterUpton7,0112,2742,68227913630275,428
 Total72,27120,60732,2521,5541,41631027956,418

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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