Chippenham: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Chippenham: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Michelle Donelan  (CON)
County/Area: Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate: 76,432
Turnout: 74.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,26754.7%51.0%
LIB14,63725.6%25.6%
LAB11,23619.7%20.1%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority16,63029.1%Pred Maj 25.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
86%
LIB
8%
LAB
7%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Chippenham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Chippenham constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right1° Right
National Position1° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity30%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born93%92%88%
Good Education42%40%39%
Good Job54%50%51%
High SEC57%52%51%
Average Age50.550.548.5
ABC1 Class58%54%53%

Chippenham ranks #413 for "Leave", #263 for "Right" and #426 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Chippenham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Chippenham: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Chippenham

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Chippenham at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Chippenham. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

ChippenhamActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon North20133161717302121350
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon South201337623181525800
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Derriads201352417110734400
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands201351417710223600
WiltshireChippenham Hardenhuish2013242853782050351
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England201322112736826200
WiltshireChippenham Lowden and Rowden2013219763492100229
WiltshireChippenham Monkton20131748099116400
WiltshireChippenham Pewsham20132657851521800
WiltshireChippenham Queens and Sheldon201340414543825600
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick201342425916133900
WiltshireCorsham Town201364611854531800
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill201382517519026700
WiltshireHilperton2013116740001,329
WiltshireHolt and Staverton20133508252920400
WiltshireMelksham Central201326014632837000
WiltshireMelksham North2013323106354251080
WiltshireMelksham South20132209475041100
WiltshireMelksham Without North201341111503910634
WiltshireMelksham Without South20134789914244900
WiltshireSummerham and Seend20139830045600
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood2013599185671000

ChippenhamTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon North3,6275643051,30337824102,791
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon South3,6426273861,360431002,804
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Derriads3,4121,201392245788002,626
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands3,7631,447498287664002,896
WiltshireChippenham Hardenhuish3,69154519285246207912,842
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England3,320578332962685002,557
WiltshireChippenham Lowden and Rowden3,59556019489253705852,768
WiltshireChippenham Monkton2,8782741261,558258002,216
WiltshireChippenham Pewsham3,5236681971,298549002,712
WiltshireChippenham Queens and Sheldon3,483871313945552002,681
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick3,8291,056645401845002,947
WiltshireCorsham Town3,6191,106202933545002,786
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill2,4741,078229248349001,904
WiltshireHilperton3,7652211410002,5362,898
WiltshireHolt and Staverton3,4828051891,217469002,680
WiltshireMelksham Central3,8947063968911,005002,998
WiltshireMelksham North3,56979726187361901972,747
WiltshireMelksham South3,8744451901,516831002,982
WiltshireMelksham Without North3,404694194066101,0712,620
WiltshireMelksham Without South3,8421,2102513601,137002,958
WiltshireSummerham and Seend7253810017700558
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood2,8158922769990002,167
 Total74,22616,7265,90917,14011,9422415,18057,138

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

ChippenhamEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon North3,7351,2975149800002,791
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon South3,7501,2764991,0290002,804
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Derriads3,5131,6295674300002,626
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands3,8751,8356334280002,896
WiltshireChippenham Hardenhuish3,8011,4706237490002,842
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England3,4191,1536187860002,557
WiltshireChippenham Lowden and Rowden3,7021,4256546900002,769
WiltshireChippenham Monkton2,9649643099430002,216
WiltshireChippenham Pewsham3,6281,3174659310002,713
WiltshireChippenham Queens and Sheldon3,5871,3815337670002,681
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick3,9431,6587125770002,947
WiltshireCorsham Town3,7271,5644747480002,786
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill2,5481,3002893160001,905
WiltshireHilperton3,8771,8976813200002,898
WiltshireHolt and Staverton3,5851,3614788400002,679
WiltshireMelksham Central4,0101,4857727410002,998
WiltshireMelksham North3,6751,4086047360002,748
WiltshireMelksham South3,9891,4414951,0460002,982
WiltshireMelksham Without North3,5051,8184773250002,620
WiltshireMelksham Without South3,9561,9545084960002,958
WiltshireSummerham and Seend7474465755000558
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood2,8991,1902737040002,167
 Total74,22631,26911,23514,63700057,138

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Chippenham

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Chippenham.

ChippenhamPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon North3,7351,1925259806614132,790
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon South3,7501,1715101,0296715132,805
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Derriads3,5131,5305774306214122,625
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands3,8751,7266444286915132,895
WiltshireChippenham Hardenhuish3,8011,3636347496815132,842
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England3,4191,0576287866113122,557
WiltshireChippenham Lowden and Rowden3,7021,3216656906614132,769
WiltshireChippenham Monkton2,9648813189435311102,216
WiltshireChippenham Pewsham3,6281,2154769316414132,713
WiltshireChippenham Queens and Sheldon3,5871,2805437676414122,680
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick3,9431,5477245777015142,947
WiltshireCorsham Town3,7271,4594857486614132,785
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill2,5481,228296316451091,904
WiltshireHilperton3,8771,7886923206915132,897
WiltshireHolt and Staverton3,5851,2604888406414122,678
WiltshireMelksham Central4,0101,3727847417116142,998
WiltshireMelksham North3,6751,3056157366514132,748
WiltshireMelksham South3,9891,3295071,0467115142,982
WiltshireMelksham Without North3,5051,7204873256214122,620
WiltshireMelksham Without South3,9561,8435204967015142,958
WiltshireSummerham and Seend74742559551333558
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood2,8991,1092817045111102,166
 Total74,22629,12111,45814,6371,35729526557,133

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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