Chorley: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Chorley: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Lindsay Hoyle  (LAB)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 76,404
Turnout: 72.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB30,74555.3%55.2%
CON23,23341.8%41.7%
LIB1,1262.0%2.1%
Green5301.0%1.0%
UKIP00.0%0.0%
LAB Majority7,51213.5%Pred Maj 13.5%
Chance of
winning
LAB
100%
CON
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Chorley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Chorley constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position3° Left6° Left
National Position5° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%54%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health48%46%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education41%37%39%
Good Job53%49%51%
High SEC54%48%51%
Average Age49.448.648.5
ABC1 Class54%50%53%

Chorley ranks #237 for "Leave", #418 for "Right" and #266 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Chorley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Chorley: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Chorley

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Chorley at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Chorley. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

ChorleyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ChorleyAdlington and Anderton20151,2851,93624869300
ChorleyAstley and Buckshaw20151,5181,194035100
ChorleyBrindle and Hoghton20124302440000
ChorleyChisnall20151,4338990000
ChorleyChorley East20156421,86105541480
ChorleyChorley North East20157701,65105261590
ChorleyChorley North West20151,3211,636047900
ChorleyChorley South East20151,1301,81213457800
ChorleyChorley South West20151,0871,855064600
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods North20151,1441,40425502600
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods West and Cuerden20151,2271,1420000
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods and Whittle-le-Woods20152,0611,58534559400
ChorleyCoppull20157821,659069500
ChorleyEuxton North2014570692028900
ChorleyEuxton South20151,017963033400
ChorleyHeath Charnock and Rivington2012278475010500
ChorleyPennine2014325354012000
ChorleyWheelton and Withnell20145301,0440000

ChorleyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyAdlington and Anderton5,7691,3271,999256716004,298
ChorleyAstley and Buckshaw3,4301,2669960293002,555
ChorleyBrindle and Hoghton1,70481046000001,270
ChorleyChisnall3,2321,48092800002,408
ChorleyChorley East5,3948052,333069518604,019
ChorleyChorley North East5,2019612,060065619803,875
ChorleyChorley North West4,6591,3341,6530484003,471
ChorleyChorley South East5,2311,2051,932143616003,896
ChorleyChorley South West6,7951,5342,6170911005,062
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods North5,3551,4901,829332033903,990
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods West and Cuerden3,3491,2921,20300002,495
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods and Whittle-le-Woods6,0552,0281,559339584004,510
ChorleyCoppull5,1529572,0300851003,838
ChorleyEuxton North3,5989851,1960499002,680
ChorleyEuxton South3,0841,0109560332002,298
ChorleyHeath Charnock and Rivington1,6704036890152001,244
ChorleyPennine1,7495305770196001,303
ChorleyWheelton and Withnell3,2538161,60700002,423
 Total74,68020,23326,6241,0706,985723055,635

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

ChorleyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyAdlington and Anderton5,9021,6932,42414803304,298
ChorleyAstley and Buckshaw3,5091,2501,2702001502,555
ChorleyBrindle and Hoghton1,74376050090001,269
ChorleyChisnall3,3071,3401,048901202,409
ChorleyChorley East5,5191,1732,7165807204,019
ChorleyChorley North East5,3211,2882,4346608703,875
ChorleyChorley North West4,7671,5181,891530903,471
ChorleyChorley South East5,3521,4302,3569201803,896
ChorleyChorley South West6,9521,9163,0992702005,062
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods North5,4791,4482,198187015703,990
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods West and Cuerden3,4261,2001,262260702,495
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods and Whittle-le-Woods6,1952,2571,96725503204,511
ChorleyCoppull5,2711,3502,457250603,838
ChorleyEuxton North3,6811,3521,31980102,680
ChorleyEuxton South3,1551,1371,096630202,298
ChorleyHeath Charnock and Rivington1,709540688130301,244
ChorleyPennine1,78966063820301,303
ChorleyWheelton and Withnell3,3289221,3856505102,423
 Total74,68023,23430,7481,1260528055,635

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Chorley

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Chorley.

ChorleyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyAdlington and Anderton5,9021,6912,42314903404,297
ChorleyAstley and Buckshaw3,5091,2491,2692101602,555
ChorleyBrindle and Hoghton1,74375950090001,268
ChorleyChisnall3,3071,3391,0471001302,409
ChorleyChorley East5,5191,1712,7155907304,018
ChorleyChorley North East5,3211,2862,4336708803,874
ChorleyChorley North West4,7671,5171,8905401003,471
ChorleyChorley South East5,3521,4282,3559301903,895
ChorleyChorley South West6,9521,9143,0982802205,062
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods North5,4791,4462,197188015803,989
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods West and Cuerden3,4261,1991,261270802,495
ChorleyClayton-le-Woods and Whittle-le-Woods6,1952,2551,96625603304,510
ChorleyCoppull5,2711,3482,456260703,837
ChorleyEuxton North3,6811,3511,31890202,680
ChorleyEuxton South3,1551,1361,095640302,298
ChorleyHeath Charnock and Rivington1,709539688130301,243
ChorleyPennine1,78965963820301,302
ChorleyWheelton and Withnell3,3289211,3846605202,423
 Total74,68023,20830,7331,1410544055,626

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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