Cities of London and Westminster: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cities of London and Westminster: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Mark Field  (CON)
County/Area: City of Westminster (London)
Electorate: 61,533
Turnout: 62.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON18,00546.6%43.4%
LAB14,85738.4%37.4%
LIB4,27011.0%11.1%
Green8212.1%3.4%
UKIP4261.1%4.5%
OTH2750.7%0.2%
CON Majority3,1488.1%Pred Maj 6.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
59%
LAB
41%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Cities of London and Westminster : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cities of London and Westminster constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position24° Right11° Right
National Position31° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %30%40%52%
British Identity32%38%29%
Good Health56%50%48%
UK Born48%64%88%
Good Education64%48%39%
Good Job81%61%51%
High SEC68%55%51%
Average Age42.944.148.5
ABC1 Class80%62%53%

Cities of London and Westminster ranks #618 for "Leave", #15 for "Right" and #614 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cities of London and Westminster: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Cities of London and Westminster: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Cities of London and Westminster

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Cities of London and Westminster at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Cities of London and Westminster. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Cities of London and WestminsterActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
City of LondonAldersgate201437122016413169
City of LondonAldgate2014643000
City of LondonBassishaw2014111000
City of LondonBillingsgate2014321000
City of LondonBishopsgate2014241411111
City of LondonBread Street2014322000
City of LondonBridge2014954000
City of LondonBroad Street2014632000
City of LondonCandlewick2014322000
City of LondonCastle Baynard2014663929232
City of LondonCheap2014321000
City of LondonColeman Street2014000000
City of LondonCordwainer2014211000
City of LondonCornhill2014321000
City of LondonCripplegate2014538319239192314
City of LondonDowgate2014743000
City of LondonFarringdon Within20141257456453
City of LondonFarringdon Without20141267556453
City of LondonLangbourn2014111000
City of LondonLime Street2014000000
City of LondonPortsoken20141669874674
City of LondonQueenhithe2014694131232
City of LondonTower2014362216121
City of LondonVintry2014100000
City of LondonWalbrook2014110000
City of WestminsterBryanston and Dorset Square20143,4361,27452603810
City of WestminsterChurchill20143,0503,4543500308251
City of WestminsterHyde Park20143,1791,47902022610
City of WestminsterKnightsbridge and Belgravia20143,410467002280
City of WestminsterMarylebone High Street20143,41993352903060
City of WestminsterSt James's20143,0041,6056252993350
City of WestminsterTachbrook20143,2911,5985632742680
City of WestminsterVincent Square20143,9252,2330327448279
City of WestminsterWarwick20143,9991,4185362652900
City of WestminsterWest End20142,8061,2812970309347

Cities of London and WestminsterTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
City of LondonAldersgate1,6034752822101720121,016
City of LondonAldgate2785400017
City of LondonBassishaw61110003
City of LondonBillingsgate144310008
City of LondonBishopsgate10430181411165
City of LondonBread Street1543300010
City of LondonBridge40137600026
City of LondonBroad Street2484300015
City of LondonCandlewick1543300010
City of LondonCastle Baynard284845037343181
City of LondonCheap144310008
City of LondonColeman Street21000001
City of LondonCordwainer103220007
City of LondonCornhill134310008
City of LondonCripplegate2,3266884083062429181,473
City of LondonDowgate2995400018
City of LondonFarringdon Within5421619572564343
City of LondonFarringdon Without5461629672564345
City of LondonLangbourn61110003
City of LondonLime Street10000000
City of LondonPortsoken71721212595895454
City of LondonQueenhithe301895340343192
City of LondonTower15746282013199
City of LondonVintry32000002
City of LondonWalbrook52200004
City of WestminsterBryanston and Dorset Square5,7022,211820338024503,614
City of WestminsterChurchill5,3501,3951,58016001411153,391
City of WestminsterHyde Park5,8762,3121,076014719003,725
City of WestminsterKnightsbridge and Belgravia4,6542,4503360016402,950
City of WestminsterMarylebone High Street5,2892,209603342019803,352
City of WestminsterSt James's5,9431,9281,03040119221503,766
City of WestminsterTachbrook4,8521,68882028914113703,075
City of WestminsterVincent Square5,8992,0351,15801702321453,740
City of WestminsterWarwick5,4752,13275628614115503,470
City of WestminsterWest End5,1471,81682919202002253,262
 Total60,99122,19110,2052,9048581,95953638,653

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Cities of London and WestminsterEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
City of LondonAldersgate1,61740933424651841,016
City of LondonAldgate2766211016
City of LondonBassishaw61110003
City of LondonBillingsgate143320008
City of LondonBishopsgate10525261310166
City of LondonBread Street153330009
City of LondonBridge401010510026
City of LondonBroad Street2473400014
City of LondonCandlewick154230009
City of LondonCastle Baynard287755939411179
City of LondonCheap143320008
City of LondonColeman Street21000001
City of LondonCordwainer102220006
City of LondonCornhill134320009
City of LondonCripplegate2,347547530343738101,475
City of LondonDowgate2985500018
City of LondonFarringdon Within54715391861022344
City of LondonFarringdon Without55116410565822346
City of LondonLangbourn61110003
City of LondonLime Street10000000
City of LondonPortsoken72312322696234454
City of LondonQueenhithe304767633511192
City of LondonTower158354023011100
City of LondonVintry31000001
City of LondonWalbrook52100003
City of WestminsterBryanston and Dorset Square5,7531,7871,28638810123193,613
City of WestminsterChurchill5,3981,0571,9112823560463,391
City of WestminsterHyde Park5,9281,9931,4471693761183,725
City of WestminsterKnightsbridge and Belgravia4,6952,02972711207572,950
City of WestminsterMarylebone High Street5,3361,8051,0274192071103,352
City of WestminsterSt James's5,9961,6871,4384689269123,766
City of WestminsterTachbrook4,8951,2891,275399604483,075
City of WestminsterVincent Square5,9511,5511,7432518070433,738
City of WestminsterWarwick5,5241,6001,283469397273,470
City of WestminsterWest End5,1931,5421,1893367110783,262
 Total60,99118,00314,8564,26942482227438,653

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cities of London and Westminster

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cities of London and Westminster.

Cities of London and WestminsterPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
City of LondonAldersgate1,617376324247383111,017
City of LondonAldgate2756211015
City of LondonBassishaw61110003
City of LondonBillingsgate143320008
City of LondonBishopsgate10523251341066
City of LondonBread Street153330009
City of LondonBridge40910520026
City of LondonBroad Street2473400014
City of LondonCandlewick154230009
City of LondonCastle Baynard2876957391030178
City of LondonCheap143320008
City of LondonColeman Street21000001
City of LondonCordwainer102220006
City of LondonCornhill134320009
City of LondonCripplegate2,347500515344575731,476
City of LondonDowgate2975510018
City of LondonFarringdon Within54714287862161343
City of LondonFarringdon Without551153101652061346
City of LondonLangbourn61110003
City of LondonLime Street10000000
City of LondonPortsoken723108221961891453
City of LondonQueenhithe3047074331130191
City of LondonTower158323923420100
City of LondonVintry31000001
City of LondonWalbrook52100003
City of WestminsterBryanston and Dorset Square5,7531,6711,24939012916953,613
City of WestminsterChurchill5,3989481,876284162109123,391
City of WestminsterHyde Park5,9281,8731,40917115910853,725
City of WestminsterKnightsbridge and Belgravia4,6951,9346971149311122,951
City of WestminsterMarylebone High Street5,3361,69799342112711233,353
City of WestminsterSt James's5,9961,5661,39947021211533,765
City of WestminsterTachbrook4,8951,1901,2434011578223,075
City of WestminsterVincent Square5,9511,4311,705253216123113,739
City of WestminsterWarwick5,5241,4881,24747114811423,470
City of WestminsterWest End5,1931,4371,155339147164203,262
 Total60,99116,76114,4594,2921,7371,3267238,647

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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