Clacton: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Clacton: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Giles Watling  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 69,263
Turnout: 63.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON27,03161.2%61.2%
LAB11,20325.4%25.4%
UKIP3,3577.6%7.6%
LIB8872.0%2.1%
Green7191.6%1.8%
OTH4991.1%0.9%
MIN4491.0%1.0%
CON Majority15,82835.9%Pred Maj 35.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
MIN
0%

Clacton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Clacton constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right8° Right
National Position33° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %78%57%52%
British Identity20%27%29%
Good Health35%47%48%
UK Born96%89%88%
Good Education22%37%39%
Good Job40%53%51%
High SEC40%53%51%
Average Age56.149.448.5
ABC1 Class39%55%53%

Clacton ranks #2 for "Leave", #75 for "Right" and #1 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Clacton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Clacton: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Clacton

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Clacton at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Clacton. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

ClactonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
TendringAlton Park201574092001,43500
TendringBeaumont and Thorpe2015902169027200
TendringBockings Elm20151,53971102,04900
TendringBurrsville20155201460531800
TendringFrinton20152,40647606810701
TendringGolf Green20158371,12602,32000
TendringHamford20151,59022901,5690845
TendringHaven201525700001,041
TendringHolland and Kirby20151,72227401,43701,326
TendringHomelands20155350058300
TendringLittle Clacton and Weeley20151,733001,6940924
TendringPeter Bruff20151,1903602521,51500
TendringPier20151,20990501,21600
TendringRush Green201597974201,62100
TendringSt Bartholomews201595600003,771
TendringSt James20151,61838501,6740244
TendringSt Johns20151,49885101,2342410
TendringSt Marys20151,17390002,05400
TendringSt Osyth and Point Clear20151,2146350002,218
TendringSt Pauls20151,449001,70401,520
TendringWalton20151,07766301,3030664

ClactonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
TendringAlton Park3,84558973201,142002,463
TendringBeaumont and Thorpe1,8457941490239001,182
TendringBockings Elm3,73885739601,141002,394
TendringBurrsville1,61042011804296501,032
TendringFrinton3,2321,168231033103402,070
TendringGolf Green3,87748565301,345002,483
TendringHamford3,098745107073503961,983
TendringHaven1,64820900008461,055
TendringHolland and Kirby3,834888141074106842,454
TendringHomelands1,5354700051300983
TendringLittle Clacton and Weeley3,6999430092205032,368
TendringPeter Bruff3,5168082441711,028002,251
TendringPier3,9249126830918002,513
TendringRush Green3,89573155401,210002,495
TendringSt Bartholomews3,55446000001,8162,276
TendringSt James3,391896213092701352,171
TendringSt Johns3,729935531077115002,387
TendringSt Marys4,13075257701,316002,645
TendringSt Osyth and Point Clear3,4736643470001,2132,224
TendringSt Pauls3,8337610089507982,454
TendringWalton3,530657404079504052,261
 Total68,93615,1446,08017115,3982157,13644,144

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

ClactonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
TendringAlton Park3,8631,1879266919354342,463
TendringBeaumont and Thorpe1,85489020843627161,181
TendringBockings Elm3,7561,4086804122619222,396
TendringBurrsville1,61860626313984561,031
TendringFrinton3,2471,591290446228562,071
TendringGolf Green3,8951,2028982631133132,483
TendringHamford3,1131,3613863311734531,984
TendringHaven1,656687204166712691,055
TendringHolland and Kirby3,8521,7114652714628772,454
TendringHomelands1,542656145251271514982
TendringLittle Clacton and Weeley3,7171,6114262719747612,369
TendringPeter Bruff3,5331,33057412718319192,252
TendringPier3,9431,4028284317039302,512
TendringRush Green3,9131,2899112921725232,494
TendringSt Bartholomews3,5711,48843555123391362,276
TendringSt James3,4071,4075153715817372,171
TendringSt Johns3,7471,3856622719397242,388
TendringSt Marys4,1501,4288317725721302,644
TendringSt Osyth and Point Clear3,4891,3605714411040992,224
TendringSt Pauls3,8511,6914364716832792,453
TendringWalton3,5471,3425507719747472,260
 Total68,93627,03211,2048883,35671894544,144

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Clacton

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Clacton.

ClactonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
TendringAlton Park3,8631,1869257119356312,462
TendringBeaumont and Thorpe1,85489020853628151,182
TendringBockings Elm3,7561,4076794322621192,395
TendringBurrsville1,61860626314984651,032
TendringFrinton3,2471,590290466230532,071
TendringGolf Green3,8951,2018972831135112,483
TendringHamford3,1131,3603863611737481,984
TendringHaven1,656687204196816631,057
TendringHolland and Kirby3,8521,7104643014732702,453
TendringHomelands1,542656145261271613983
TendringLittle Clacton and Weeley3,7171,6104253019851552,369
TendringPeter Bruff3,5331,32957312818321172,251
TendringPier3,9431,4018274517041272,511
TendringRush Green3,9131,2889103021727212,493
TendringSt Bartholomews3,5711,48743461124461232,275
TendringSt James3,4071,4065143915819342,170
TendringSt Johns3,7471,3846612919399222,388
TendringSt Marys4,1501,4278307925723282,644
TendringSt Osyth and Point Clear3,4891,3595704911146892,224
TendringSt Pauls3,8511,6904355116936722,453
TendringWalton3,5471,3415498019850422,260
 Total68,93627,01511,1899393,36377685844,140

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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