Clwyd South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Clwyd South: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Susan Elan Jones  (LAB)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 54,341
Turnout: 69.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB19,00250.7%50.7%
CON14,64639.1%39.0%
Plaid2,2936.1%6.1%
UKIP8022.1%2.1%
LIB7312.0%2.0%
Green00.0%0.0%
LAB Majority4,35611.6%Pred Maj 11.6%
Chance of
winning
LAB
100%
CON
0%
Plaid
0%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Clwyd South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Clwyd South constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position7° Left10° Left
National Position2° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %59%53%52%
British Identity26%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC42%46%51%
Average Age49.749.648.5
ABC1 Class42%47%53%

Clwyd South ranks #191 for "Leave", #470 for "Right" and #333 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Clwyd South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Clwyd South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Clwyd South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Clwyd South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Clwyd South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Clwyd SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen201200000-10
DenbighshireLlandrillo201200000-10
DenbighshireLlangollen20122064270091895671
WrexhamBronington2012587226700000
WrexhamBrymbo20125782670000135
WrexhamBryn Cefn201285271700000
WrexhamCefn2012070200001,306
WrexhamChirk North201203670000434
WrexhamChirk South201203200000466
WrexhamCoedpoeth201277959000476635
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley2012346800050679
WrexhamEsclusham2012000000-1
WrexhamGwenfro20120348290000
WrexhamJohnstown2012000000-1
WrexhamLlangollen Rural2012000000-1
WrexhamMarchwiel201212500000488
WrexhamMinera201203120000457
WrexhamNew Broughton201203200000398
WrexhamOverton201249802090000
WrexhamPant201202470000405
WrexhamPenycae201201620000407
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South201202340000431
WrexhamPlas Madoc20120178000083
WrexhamPonciau20120737435000973
WrexhamRuabon2012783970003050

Clwyd SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen1,784000001,21601,216
DenbighshireLlandrillo875000005960596
DenbighshireLlangollen3,13619239800858356262,136
WrexhamBronington2,4051,08941913000001,638
WrexhamBrymbo3,1211,25457900002932,126
WrexhamBryn Cefn1,66122672018600001,132
WrexhamCefn3,917093300001,7362,669
WrexhamChirk North1,890059000006981,288
WrexhamChirk South1,548042900006251,054
WrexhamCoedpoeth3,615881,1000005467292,463
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley1,6624693000689251,132
WrexhamEsclusham2,1300000001,4511,451
WrexhamGwenfro1,3620857710000928
WrexhamJohnstown2,5210000001,7181,718
WrexhamLlangollen Rural1,5780000001,0751,075
WrexhamMarchwiel1,812252000009831,235
WrexhamMinera1,900052500007691,294
WrexhamNew Broughton2,637080100009961,797
WrexhamOverton2,5391,219051100001,730
WrexhamPant1,812046800007671,235
WrexhamPenycae1,690032800008241,152
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South1,916045900008461,305
WrexhamPlas Madoc1,500069700003251,022
WrexhamPonciau3,70608685120001,1462,526
WrexhamRuabon2,27815579000060701,552
 Total54,9954,52111,0541,4100853,86816,53237,470

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Clwyd SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen1,7634042952417047601,216
DenbighshireLlandrillo86521711817702370596
DenbighshireLlangollen3,0998698777329029002,138
WrexhamBronington2,3761,1204713550701,638
WrexhamBrymbo3,0841,102936201005802,126
WrexhamBryn Cefn1,641319706491004901,133
WrexhamCefn3,8708391,657198706702,669
WrexhamChirk North1,86839880276002101,288
WrexhamChirk South1,5304135894400901,055
WrexhamCoedpoeth3,5726941,4034150027502,463
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley1,642573426142109701,131
WrexhamEsclusham2,105647713155402201,451
WrexhamGwenfro1,34614470125200370927
WrexhamJohnstown2,49172386047006201,719
WrexhamLlangollen Rural1,55952350913201001,075
WrexhamMarchwiel1,79071748302201201,234
WrexhamMinera1,877444755123105301,295
WrexhamNew Broughton2,6065651,145163203801,796
WrexhamOverton2,5091,21736813460501,730
WrexhamPant1,790406722295002801,235
WrexhamPenycae1,67035270513206101,151
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South1,89349574920330901,306
WrexhamPlas Madoc1,48222373252104101,022
WrexhamPonciau3,6627711,42916437012402,525
WrexhamRuabon2,251469851225020501,552
 Total54,99514,64419,00273180102,293037,470

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Clwyd South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Clwyd South.

Clwyd SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen1,7634042952417047601,216
DenbighshireLlandrillo86521711817702370596
DenbighshireLlangollen3,0998688767429129002,138
WrexhamBronington2,3761,1194713551701,638
WrexhamBrymbo3,0841,101935211015802,126
WrexhamBryn Cefn1,641319706491004901,133
WrexhamCefn3,8708381,656208716702,669
WrexhamChirk North1,86839780276002101,287
WrexhamChirk South1,5304135894400901,055
WrexhamCoedpoeth3,5726931,4024250127502,463
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley1,642573426142109701,131
WrexhamEsclusham2,105646713155402201,450
WrexhamGwenfro1,34614470125200370927
WrexhamJohnstown2,49172286047016201,719
WrexhamLlangollen Rural1,55952350913201001,075
WrexhamMarchwiel1,79071748302201201,234
WrexhamMinera1,877443755123105301,294
WrexhamNew Broughton2,6065641,145163213801,796
WrexhamOverton2,5091,21636813461501,730
WrexhamPant1,790406722295002801,235
WrexhamPenycae1,67035270513206101,151
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South1,89349474920330901,305
WrexhamPlas Madoc1,48222373252104101,022
WrexhamPonciau3,6627701,42816537112402,525
WrexhamRuabon2,251468851225020501,551
 Total54,99514,63018,99773680192,293037,466

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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