Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Hugh Gaffney  (LAB)
County/Area: Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate: 71,198
Turnout: 63.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB19,19342.6%44.5%
SNP17,60739.1%40.7%
CON7,31816.2%11.9%
LIB9222.0%1.7%
UKIP00.0%0.6%
Green00.0%0.6%
LAB Majority1,5863.5%Pred Maj 3.7%
Chance of
winning
LAB
55%
SNP
44%
CON
1%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerLABSNPCON
Economic Position21° Left14° Left
National Position18° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %38%38%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health51%52%48%
UK Born97%93%88%
Good Education27%36%39%
Good Job44%49%51%
High SEC49%55%51%
Average Age47.748.748.5
ABC1 Class43%50%53%

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill ranks #567 for "Leave", #636 for "Right" and #560 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
North LanarkshireBellshill20121642,1270001,103471
North LanarkshireCoatbridge North and Glenboig20122892,4990001,490496
North LanarkshireCoatbridge South20121712,3820001,2930
North LanarkshireCoatbridge West20121072,8650008580
North LanarkshireCumbernauld North20122161,9330001,8751,359
North LanarkshireMossend and Holytown20121412,026000924291
North LanarkshireStrathkelvin20126353,2300002,066330
North LanarkshireThorniewood20122253,0660001,0570

Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North LanarkshireBellshill7,0701832,3740001,2315264,314
North LanarkshireCoatbridge North and Glenboig14,1305224,5130002,6918968,622
North LanarkshireCoatbridge South11,8113204,4640002,42307,207
North LanarkshireCoatbridge West12,0562065,5030001,64807,357
North LanarkshireCumbernauld North81820179000174126499
North LanarkshireMossend and Holytown512131870008527312
North LanarkshireStrathkelvin15,3879524,8440003,0984959,389
North LanarkshireThorniewood12,0293805,1760001,78407,340
 Total73,8132,59627,24000013,1342,07045,040

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North LanarkshireBellshill6,8207631,77064001,71804,315
North LanarkshireCoatbridge North and Glenboig13,6291,3743,422281003,54508,622
North LanarkshireCoatbridge South11,3939413,136121003,00907,207
North LanarkshireCoatbridge West11,6299583,66994002,63607,357
North LanarkshireCumbernauld North78910915410002250498
North LanarkshireMossend and Holytown494491338001220312
North LanarkshireStrathkelvin14,8421,8123,525265003,78609,388
North LanarkshireThorniewood11,6031,3113,38578002,56507,339
 Total73,8137,31719,1949210017,606045,040

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill.

Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North LanarkshireBellshill6,8205581,8555428271,79304,315
North LanarkshireCoatbridge North and Glenboig13,6291,0063,58523953513,68808,622
North LanarkshireCoatbridge South11,3936893,24410335343,10307,208
North LanarkshireCoatbridge West11,6297013,7778035342,73107,358
North LanarkshireCumbernauld North789821658442350498
North LanarkshireMossend and Holytown494361397221270313
North LanarkshireStrathkelvin14,8421,3263,73422568663,96909,388
North LanarkshireThorniewood11,6039593,5296647462,69207,339
 Total73,8135,35720,02878227226418,338045,041

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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