Copeland: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Copeland: Overview

 Prediction: CON gain from LAB 

MP at 2015: Jamie Reed  (LAB)
County/Area: Cumbria (North)
Electorate: 62,119
Turnout: 63.8%
2015
Votes
2015
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB16,75042.3%43.8%
CON14,18635.8%45.7%
UKIP6,14815.5%5.6%
LIB1,3683.5%4.4%
Green1,1793.0%0.0%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LAB Majority2,5646.5%Pred Maj 1.9%

Result shown is the original general election result. Ms Trudy Harrison (Con) gained the seat in a by-election on 23 February 2017 after Jamie Reed resigned as an MP in December 2016 to leave politics.

Chance of
winning
LAB
47%
CON
53%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Copeland : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Copeland constituency, the 'North' region and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatRegionAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position3° Left6° Left
National Position7° Nat5° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%58%52%
British Identity28%26%29%
Good Health45%44%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education35%35%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC45%44%51%
Average Age51.149.448.5
ABC1 Class45%47%53%

Copeland ranks #161 for "Leave", #411 for "Right" and #213 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Copeland: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Copeland: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Copeland

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Copeland at the general election of 2015. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2015, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Copeland. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

CopelandActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
AllerdaleCrummock20156360003050
AllerdaleDalton201551002261531680
AllerdaleDerwent Valley20155340003130
AllerdaleKeswick20151,1391,9396610678974
CopelandArlecdon20152240000527
CopelandBeckermet20151,287415000562
CopelandBootle2015-100000
CopelandBransty20152,8071,2590000
CopelandCleator Moor North20154952,978060400
CopelandCleator Moor South20152501,4130000
CopelandDistington20155872,5730000
CopelandEgremont North20156661,722001701,155
CopelandEgremont South20155182,27000168890
CopelandEnnerdale201527108802110
CopelandFrizington20153631,2290000
CopelandGosforth20156001580000
CopelandHarbour20155001,369002741,671
CopelandHaverigg201531529000540
CopelandHensingham20155022,8690000
CopelandHillcrest20151,1527320000
CopelandHolborn Hill20159107990000
CopelandKells2015224942000550
CopelandMillom Without20154960002510
CopelandMirehouse20153362,187000465
CopelandMoresby2015259253000167
CopelandNewtown20152,079650002020
CopelandSandwith20152881,1710000
CopelandSeascale20151,9623720000
CopelandSt Bees201561022194000

CopelandTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleCrummock1,1885120002460758
AllerdaleDalton1,42844001951321450912
AllerdaleDerwent Valley1,2384980002920790
AllerdaleKeswick4,01654192231403224632,562
CopelandArlecdon1,1852250000531756
CopelandBeckermet2,3268442720003681,484
CopelandBootle99363400000634
CopelandBransty3,8941,71576900002,484
CopelandCleator Moor North3,1762461,4800300002,026
CopelandCleator Moor South2,1572071,16900001,376
CopelandDistington3,1163691,61900001,988
CopelandEgremont North3,4243921,013001006802,185
CopelandEgremont South2,8722471,08100804241,832
CopelandEnnerdale77923607701840497
CopelandFrizington1,96828696900001,255
CopelandGosforth1,0805451440000689
CopelandHarbour3,115261713001438711,988
CopelandHaverigg1,42243439900740907
CopelandHensingham3,2183061,74700002,053
CopelandHillcrest2,02979250300001,295
CopelandHolborn Hill1,90464756800001,215
CopelandKells1,8861576610003861,204
CopelandMillom Without1,0614490002270676
CopelandMirehouse3,4552481,6130003432,204
CopelandMoresby1,063259253000167679
CopelandNewtown2,6891,2173800011801,715
CopelandSandwith1,88923896700001,205
CopelandSeascale2,1671,16222000001,382
CopelandSt Bees1,38258121190000882
 Total62,12014,68817,6736764321,9314,23339,633

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

CopelandEst. 2015 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleCrummock1,188482544579980758
AllerdaleDalton1,428479119116140590913
AllerdaleDerwent Valley1,2384426481921100789
AllerdaleKeswick4,01685868142143017402,564
CopelandArlecdon1,18526314432304120755
CopelandBeckermet2,326792351252942201,484
CopelandBootle99345795254970633
CopelandBransty3,8941,291909182432502,486
CopelandCleator Moor North3,1764011,23583651702,026
CopelandCleator Moor South2,15727191171721501,376
CopelandDistington3,1164291,339151931101,987
CopelandEgremont North3,4244951,060495364502,185
CopelandEgremont South2,872451905324024201,832
CopelandEnnerdale779240665961710497
CopelandFrizington1,96832576551511001,256
CopelandGosforth1,0804351513446220688
CopelandHarbour3,115393851615899401,988
CopelandHaverigg1,42236237811125310907
CopelandHensingham3,2184261,367172291502,054
CopelandHillcrest2,029682462181141901,295
CopelandHolborn Hill1,904547522131151801,215
CopelandKells1,886238609293131601,205
CopelandMillom Without1,061408593189900677
CopelandMirehouse3,4552971,441364072502,206
CopelandMoresby1,06324627611126200679
CopelandNewtown2,689831585272195401,716
CopelandSandwith1,88922985091071001,205
CopelandSeascale2,167945258511032601,383
CopelandSt Bees1,3824732448260220881
 Total62,12014,18816,7511,3686,1531,180039,633

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Copeland

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Copeland.

CopelandPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleCrummock1,18860072572306758
AllerdaleDalton1,4286001381284106913
AllerdaleDerwent Valley1,23857685942707789
AllerdaleKeswick4,0161,2247374571270192,564
CopelandArlecdon1,1853541584119705755
CopelandBeckermet2,3269683784287091,484
CopelandBootle993489100281402633
CopelandBransty3,8941,4429323372082,487
CopelandCleator Moor North3,1766121,267291080112,027
CopelandCleator Moor South2,1573769271751051,376
CopelandDistington3,1165421,3562657061,987
CopelandEgremont North3,4247661,102762280142,186
CopelandEgremont South2,872682940551440121,833
CopelandEnnerdale77932779681805497
CopelandFrizington1,9684147791444051,256
CopelandGosforth1,080477157381402688
CopelandHarbour3,115680895893090151,988
CopelandHaverigg1,422453392203705907
CopelandHensingham3,2185611,3883067072,053
CopelandHillcrest2,0297584742534041,295
CopelandHolborn Hill1,9046235342034041,215
CopelandKells1,88638163143143071,205
CopelandMillom Without1,06152577432606677
CopelandMirehouse3,4555361,478591200122,205
CopelandMoresby1,063330289193704679
CopelandNewtown2,6899916104365081,717
CopelandSandwith1,8892958601532031,205
CopelandSeascale2,1671,0212705830041,383
CopelandSt Bees1,382522252871803882
 Total62,12018,12517,3571,7542,204020439,644

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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