Corby: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Corby: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Tom Pursglove  (CON)
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 82,439
Turnout: 72.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,53449.2%46.2%
LAB26,84444.7%43.8%
LIB1,5452.6%2.6%
UKIP1,4952.5%5.4%
Green5791.0%2.0%
CON Majority2,6904.5%Pred Maj 2.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
56%
LAB
44%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Corby : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Corby constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Right3° Right
National Position9° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born90%91%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job43%48%51%
High SEC44%47%51%
Average Age48.649.148.5
ABC1 Class45%50%53%

Corby ranks #162 for "Leave", #320 for "Right" and #158 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Corby: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Corby: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Corby

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Corby at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Corby. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

CorbyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CorbyBeanfield20151,5716,277078500
CorbyCentral20158532,4980000
CorbyDanesholme20156561,68375184900
CorbyKingswood and Hazel Leys20151,0164,44406064930
CorbyLloyds20151,9195,8190000
CorbyLodge Park20151,8135,556071200
CorbyOakley North20151,0131,36516443500
CorbyOakley South20153,9024,3630000
CorbyRowlett20157452,705050700
CorbyRural West201558243486000
CorbyStanion and Corby Village20151,2281,323042000
CorbyWeldon and Gretton20152,7441,6645004682260
East NorthamptonshireBarnwell20159320283000
East NorthamptonshireFineshade20159542640000
East NorthamptonshireIrthlingborough John Pyel20151,5031,381041600
East NorthamptonshireIrthlingborough Waterloo20152,0971,333000179
East NorthamptonshireKing's Forest2015808291244000
East NorthamptonshireLower Nene20159310029200
East NorthamptonshireLyveden2015-100000
East NorthamptonshireOundle20155,1132,810054700
East NorthamptonshirePrebendal20151,060200133000
East NorthamptonshireRaunds Saxon20152,5571,4580000
East NorthamptonshireRaunds Windmill20151,6241,057058600
East NorthamptonshireStanwick2015883231180000
East NorthamptonshireThrapston Lakes20151,7327430001,570
East NorthamptonshireThrapston Market20151,83352804390466
East NorthamptonshireWoodford20158144190000

CorbyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CorbyBeanfield5,2497182,8700359003,947
CorbyCentral3,3536421,88000002,522
CorbyDanesholme2,992375961429485002,250
CorbyKingswood and Hazel Leys4,9395752,517034327903,714
CorbyLloyds5,1239562,89700003,853
CorbyLodge Park4,9628372,5660329003,732
CorbyOakley North2,751704949114302002,069
CorbyOakley South5,6762,0152,25300004,268
CorbyRowlett3,8445441,9760370002,890
CorbyRural West1,23349036572000927
CorbyStanion and Corby Village1,8015606030191001,354
CorbyWeldon and Gretton2,4689095511661557501,856
East NorthamptonshireBarnwell1,43382702510001,078
East NorthamptonshireFineshade1,48487424200001,116
East NorthamptonshireIrthlingborough John Pyel3,3251,1391,0460315002,500
East NorthamptonshireIrthlingborough Waterloo2,8601,2507940001072,151
East NorthamptonshireKing's Forest1,3766232241880001,035
East NorthamptonshireLower Nene1,55489000279001,169
East NorthamptonshireLyveden1,4731,108000001,108
East NorthamptonshireOundle4,5682,0741,1400222003,436
East NorthamptonshirePrebendal1,5518881671110001,166
East NorthamptonshireRaunds Saxon3,2291,54788200002,429
East NorthamptonshireRaunds Windmill3,0281,1327370408002,277
East NorthamptonshireStanwick1,5858132131660001,192
East NorthamptonshireThrapston Lakes3,4351,1064750001,0032,584
East NorthamptonshireThrapston Market2,9511,246359029803172,220
East NorthamptonshireWoodford1,53276139200001,153
 Total79,77525,60327,0591,4974,0563541,42759,996

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

CorbyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CorbyBeanfield5,4241,1112,64199791603,946
CorbyCentral3,4656971,7612735202,522
CorbyDanesholme3,0928381,0422511091002,250
CorbyKingswood and Hazel Leys5,1049802,4273112515003,713
CorbyLloyds5,2941,1052,6493951903,853
CorbyLodge Park5,1281,1932,345551231503,731
CorbyOakley North2,8438861,00763991402,069
CorbyOakley South5,8662,0812,1132551704,268
CorbyRowlett3,9727981,94930922102,890
CorbyRural West1,27451934753530927
CorbyStanion and Corby Village1,861622670547901,353
CorbyWeldon and Gretton2,5501,04664090344601,856
East NorthamptonshireBarnwell1,4818101131461901,079
East NorthamptonshireFineshade1,5348422301932201,116
East NorthamptonshireIrthlingborough John Pyel3,4361,3271,013271201302,500
East NorthamptonshireIrthlingborough Waterloo2,9561,26481320421302,152
East NorthamptonshireKing's Forest1,42265723612711401,035
East NorthamptonshireLower Nene1,6069461494521701,168
East NorthamptonshireLyveden1,522903170891801,108
East NorthamptonshireOundle4,7212,1931,002141465503,437
East NorthamptonshirePrebendal1,6038422298111301,166
East NorthamptonshireRaunds Saxon3,3371,5158123660602,429
East NorthamptonshireRaunds Windmill3,1291,260791421661702,276
East NorthamptonshireStanwick1,638826269897101,192
East NorthamptonshireThrapston Lakes3,5501,90657029413802,584
East NorthamptonshireThrapston Market3,0501,59850025732502,221
East NorthamptonshireWoodford1,583768356418601,152
 Total79,77529,53326,8441,5431,494579059,996

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Corby

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Corby.

CorbyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CorbyBeanfield5,4249902,6021011945903,946
CorbyCentral3,4656201,736281082902,521
CorbyDanesholme3,0927691,0202521743402,249
CorbyKingswood and Hazel Leys5,1048662,3913323319003,713
CorbyLloyds5,2949872,611411635103,853
CorbyLodge Park5,1281,0792,308572315503,730
CorbyOakley North2,843823987641593602,069
CorbyOakley South5,8661,9512,07141796304,268
CorbyRowlett3,9727101,921321765202,891
CorbyRural West1,2744913385332130927
CorbyStanion and Corby Village1,8615816576862401,354
CorbyWeldon and Gretton2,55098962291886601,856
East NorthamptonshireBarnwell1,481777107146291901,078
East NorthamptonshireFineshade1,53480821920353401,116
East NorthamptonshireIrthlingborough John Pyel3,4361,251988281934002,500
East NorthamptonshireIrthlingborough Waterloo2,9561,198792211043602,151
East NorthamptonshireKing's Forest1,422625226128312501,035
East NorthamptonshireLower Nene1,6069101425832901,169
East NorthamptonshireLyveden1,5228691629392901,108
East NorthamptonshireOundle4,7212,0889681431469203,437
East NorthamptonshirePrebendal1,60380621882352601,167
East NorthamptonshireRaunds Saxon3,3371,441788371313202,429
East NorthamptonshireRaunds Windmill3,1291,190769432324202,276
East NorthamptonshireStanwick1,63879025790421401,193
East NorthamptonshireThrapston Lakes3,5501,827545301166602,584
East NorthamptonshireThrapston Market3,0501,530478261374902,220
East NorthamptonshireWoodford1,5837333455511801,152
 Total79,77527,69926,2681,5753,2271,223059,992

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)