Cornwall North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cornwall North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Scott Mann  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 68,850
Turnout: 74.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON25,83550.7%47.7%
LIB18,63536.6%36.6%
LAB6,15112.1%11.4%
OTH3230.6%0.2%
UKIP00.0%3.0%
Green00.0%1.2%
CON Majority7,20014.1%Pred Maj 11.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
75%
LIB
23%
LAB
2%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Cornwall North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cornwall North constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right1° Right
National Position4° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%53%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education35%40%39%
Good Job41%50%51%
High SEC44%52%51%
Average Age52.950.548.5
ABC1 Class42%54%53%

Cornwall North ranks #163 for "Leave", #262 for "Right" and #274 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cornwall North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Cornwall North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Cornwall North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Cornwall North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Cornwall North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Cornwall NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CornwallAltarnun201338911122930900
CornwallBodmin St Leonard2013437351719900
CornwallBodmin St Mary's20130776022120176
CornwallBodmin St Petroc2013006491880320
CornwallBude201346002,694000
CornwallCamelford20134520459000
CornwallGrenville and Stratton20134100864000
CornwallLanivet and Blisland2013005324031850
CornwallLaunceston Central201313493551000
CornwallLaunceston North and North Petherwin201320607693640152
CornwallLaunceston South20130914522390211
CornwallPadstow20135890676000
CornwallPoundstock2013449048700377
CornwallSt Issey and St Tudy20130060100526
CornwallSt Minver and St Endellion2013439018600455
CornwallSt Teath and St Breward2013204038800628
CornwallStokeclimsland201312401002720810
CornwallTintagel2013185066431300
CornwallWadebridge East20131501613312080481
CornwallWadebridge West2013830129308000

Cornwall NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallAltarnun2,433691197407549001,844
CornwallBodmin St Leonard3,5901412391,691651002,722
CornwallBodmin St Mary's4,00502191,71360305013,036
CornwallBodmin St Petroc3,748001,59446207862,842
CornwallBude6,21068704,0220004,709
CornwallCamelford3,0681,15401,1720002,326
CornwallGrenville and Stratton3,47484801,7860002,634
CornwallLanivet and Blisland2,989001,07681537402,265
CornwallLaunceston Central3,0834032791,6550002,337
CornwallLaunceston North and North Petherwin3,59337601,40566502782,724
CornwallLaunceston South2,838019797951804572,151
CornwallPadstow3,3981,20001,3770002,577
CornwallPoundstock3,61893801,017007882,743
CornwallSt Issey and St Tudy3,240001,310001,1472,457
CornwallSt Minver and St Endellion2,6468150346008452,006
CornwallSt Teath and St Breward3,0403850733001,1862,304
CornwallStokeclimsland3,049219017748101,4342,311
CornwallTintagel3,07237101,331627002,329
CornwallWadebridge East3,05626128057636208372,316
CornwallWadebridge West3,0421,5112355610002,307
 Total67,19210,0001,64624,9285,7333748,25950,940

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Cornwall NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallAltarnun2,4931,1792474160021,844
CornwallBodmin St Leonard3,6799705321,21000102,722
CornwallBodmin St Mary's4,1041,0867191,21700153,037
CornwallBodmin St Petroc3,8401,3154061,10000212,842
CornwallBude6,3631,8713442,4860074,708
CornwallCamelford3,1441,2301968940062,326
CornwallGrenville and Stratton3,5601,2991571,1730052,634
CornwallLanivet and Blisland3,0631,22824678200102,266
CornwallLaunceston Central3,1598325399650022,338
CornwallLaunceston North and North Petherwin3,6821,4623019540082,725
CornwallLaunceston South2,9081,02940770600112,153
CornwallPadstow3,4821,3601261,07000222,578
CornwallPoundstock3,7071,62825783800192,742
CornwallSt Issey and St Tudy3,3201,24522295200372,456
CornwallSt Minver and St Endellion2,7111,34213150900232,005
CornwallSt Teath and St Breward3,1151,26028772500332,305
CornwallStokeclimsland3,1241,58028641600302,312
CornwallTintagel3,1481,21617592300152,329
CornwallWadebridge East3,1311,28134466200302,317
CornwallWadebridge West3,1171,41923163800182,306
 Total67,19225,8326,15318,6360032450,940

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cornwall North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cornwall North.

Cornwall NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallAltarnun2,4931,123233417512011,845
CornwallBodmin St Leonard3,6798875021,212863332,723
CornwallBodmin St Mary's4,1049946851,219983843,038
CornwallBodmin St Petroc3,8401,2293831,102893452,842
CornwallBude6,3631,7283252,4881194624,708
CornwallCamelford3,1441,159185895612422,326
CornwallGrenville and Stratton3,5601,2191481,174662612,634
CornwallLanivet and Blisland3,0631,159232783642532,266
CornwallLaunceston Central3,159761513966702712,338
CornwallLaunceston North and North Petherwin3,6821,379284955752922,724
CornwallLaunceston South2,908964384707692732,154
CornwallPadstow3,4821,2821191,071722862,578
CornwallPoundstock3,7071,545242839803152,742
CornwallSt Issey and St Tudy3,3201,170209953823292,455
CornwallSt Minver and St Endellion2,7111,281124510612462,006
CornwallSt Teath and St Breward3,1151,190271726793182,305
CornwallStokeclimsland3,1241,510270417773082,312
CornwallTintagel3,1481,145165924652542,328
CornwallWadebridge East3,1311,211325663803182,318
CornwallWadebridge West3,1171,349218639692752,307
 Total67,19224,2855,81718,6601,5135888650,949

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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