Cornwall South East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cornwall South East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Sheryll Murray  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 71,896
Turnout: 74.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,49355.4%51.7%
LAB12,05022.6%23.0%
LIB10,33619.4%19.4%
Green1,3352.5%3.0%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority17,44332.8%Pred Maj 28.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
87%
LAB
9%
LIB
4%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Cornwall South East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cornwall South East constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right1° Right
National Position7° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education39%40%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC50%52%51%
Average Age52.950.548.5
ABC1 Class50%54%53%

Cornwall South East ranks #176 for "Leave", #251 for "Right" and #224 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cornwall South East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Cornwall South East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Cornwall South East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Cornwall South East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Cornwall South East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Cornwall South EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CornwallBugle201322611431600291
CornwallCallington20131070343220712
CornwallGunnislake and Calstock201341847715234100
CornwallLiskeard East201314502832350334
CornwallLiskeard North201311501451100151
CornwallLiskeard West and Dobwalls20130079637500
CornwallLooe East201322503018347687
CornwallLooe West, Lansallos and Lanteglos2013523096340200
CornwallLostwithiel201344201133540334
CornwallLynher20133910388469091
CornwallMenheniot20135490352450930
CornwallRame Peninsular201353303125240536
CornwallSaltash East201313907200870
CornwallSaltash North20130027000546
CornwallSaltash South20132890685000
CornwallSaltash West20133770628000
CornwallSt Cleer201328804633480341
CornwallSt Dominick, Harrowbarrow and Kelly Bray201347701383710332
CornwallSt Germans and Landulph201342503703840171
CornwallTorpoint East2013300046626500
CornwallTorpoint West20136490130000
CornwallTrelawny2013513069539200

Cornwall South EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle1,0711919726800246802
CornwallCallington3,76725708277301,7092,821
CornwallGunnislake and Calstock3,641821937299670002,727
CornwallLiskeard East3,982434084670309992,982
CornwallLiskeard North1,422235029622503091,065
CornwallLiskeard West and Dobwalls3,405001,733816002,549
CornwallLooe East2,761397053323831,2122,068
CornwallLooe West, Lansallos and Lanteglos3,76778101,439601002,821
CornwallLostwithiel3,415909023272806872,556
CornwallLynher3,387741073588801722,536
CornwallMenheniot3,215915058775015502,407
CornwallRame Peninsular3,853807047279408122,885
CornwallSaltash East3,2063090160001,9322,401
CornwallSaltash North3,34800829001,6772,506
CornwallSaltash South3,28473001,7290002,459
CornwallSaltash West3,39495301,5880002,541
CornwallSt Cleer3,633544087565706442,720
CornwallSt Dominick, Harrowbarrow and Kelly Bray3,261884025668706152,442
CornwallSt Germans and Landulph3,479820071474103302,605
CornwallTorpoint East3,06266701,036589002,292
CornwallTorpoint West3,1661,97503960002,371
CornwallTrelawny3,55185201,155651002,658
 Total71,07014,2221,03415,78010,59623811,34453,214

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Cornwall South EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle1,0833692341890100802
CornwallCallington3,8111,64384225707902,821
CornwallGunnislake and Calstock3,6831,2271,06936106902,726
CornwallLiskeard East4,0281,42289457409202,982
CornwallLiskeard North1,43960322120803301,065
CornwallLiskeard West and Dobwalls3,4451,04956186407502,549
CornwallLooe East2,7931,29442526008902,068
CornwallLooe West, Lansallos and Lanteglos3,8111,49844579807902,820
CornwallLostwithiel3,4551,63645938907302,557
CornwallLynher3,4261,45142358807402,536
CornwallMenheniot3,2521,451436396012402,407
CornwallRame Peninsular3,8981,68470543206402,885
CornwallSaltash East3,2431,38870325005902,400
CornwallSaltash North3,3871,23376346304802,507
CornwallSaltash South3,3221,10853779501902,459
CornwallSaltash West3,4331,37342572102202,541
CornwallSt Cleer3,6751,48754359609402,720
CornwallSt Dominick, Harrowbarrow and Kelly Bray3,2991,53154130406602,442
CornwallSt Germans and Landulph3,5191,58553741307002,605
CornwallTorpoint East3,0981,12563150703002,293
CornwallTorpoint West3,2031,76728330901202,371
CornwallTrelawny3,5921,56637366305602,658
 Total71,07029,49012,05010,33701,337053,214

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cornwall South East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cornwall South East.

Cornwall South EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle1,08333923718919144802
CornwallCallington3,8111,5378532576794132,821
CornwallGunnislake and Calstock3,6831,1251,0803616583132,727
CornwallLiskeard East4,0281,31090657471107142,982
CornwallLiskeard North1,439563225208253951,065
CornwallLiskeard West and Dobwalls3,4459535718646188122,549
CornwallLooe East2,7931,21643326049100102,068
CornwallLooe West, Lansallos and Lanteglos3,8111,3924567986794132,820
CornwallLostwithiel3,4551,5404693896186122,557
CornwallLynher3,4261,3564335886087122,536
CornwallMenheniot3,2521,36144539657136112,406
CornwallRame Peninsular3,8981,5767164326979132,885
CornwallSaltash East3,2431,2987122505771112,399
CornwallSaltash North3,3871,1397734636061122,508
CornwallSaltash South3,3221,0165477955832112,459
CornwallSaltash West3,4331,2784357216035122,541
CornwallSt Cleer3,6751,38555459665108132,721
CornwallSt Dominick, Harrowbarrow and Kelly Bray3,2991,4395513045879112,442
CornwallSt Germans and Landulph3,5191,4875474136284122,605
CornwallTorpoint East3,0981,0396405075442112,293
CornwallTorpoint West3,2031,6782923095624112,370
CornwallTrelawny3,5921,4663836636370122,657
 Total71,07027,49312,25810,3371,2641,61324853,213

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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