Cotswolds, The: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cotswolds, The: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Geoffrey Clifton-Brown  (CON)
County/Area: Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate: 80,446
Turnout: 74.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,20160.6%56.9%
LAB10,70217.9%18.3%
LIB9,74816.3%16.3%
Green1,7472.9%3.4%
UKIP1,1972.0%4.4%
OTH1070.2%0.6%
CON Majority25,49942.7%Pred Maj 38.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
95%
LAB
3%
LIB
2%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Cotswolds, The : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cotswolds, The constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right1° Right
National Position1° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %48%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born93%92%88%
Good Education46%40%39%
Good Job56%50%51%
High SEC59%52%51%
Average Age53.150.548.5
ABC1 Class61%54%53%

Cotswolds, The ranks #448 for "Leave", #219 for "Right" and #410 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cotswolds, The: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Cotswolds, The: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Cotswolds, The

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Cotswolds, The at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Cotswolds, The. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Cotswolds, TheActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CotswoldAbbey2015509076201330
CotswoldBlockley20159490580000
CotswoldBourton Vale20151,1710444000
CotswoldBourton Village20156750653000
CotswoldCampden and Vale20153,59001,31555200
CotswoldChedworth and Churn Valley20158080810000
CotswoldChesterton201541406021691270
CotswoldColn Valley20151,027028101840
CotswoldErmin2015921051914400
CotswoldFairford North2015644035126600
CotswoldFosseridge20151,152023002270
CotswoldFour Acres2015360054901360
CotswoldGrumbolds Ash with Avening20151,1080442000
CotswoldKemble2015696043015800
CotswoldLechlade, Kempsford and Fairford South20153,37042395666700
CotswoldMoreton East2015866234186000
CotswoldMoreton West20159860296000
CotswoldNew Mills20155160647000
CotswoldNorthleach2015908114553000
CotswoldSandywell20151,1450477000
CotswoldSiddington and Cerney Rural20157020662000
CotswoldSouth Cerney Village2015433070700314
CotswoldSt Michael's201542206651189033
CotswoldStow20157830613000
CotswoldStratton2015595081001560
CotswoldTetbury East and Rural2015733222246000
CotswoldTetbury Town20155172199100271
CotswoldTetbury with Upton2015768248233000
CotswoldThe Ampneys and Hampton20151,0550621000
CotswoldThe Beeches201548815454319000
CotswoldThe Rissingtons2015738014302300
CotswoldWatermoor2015432063723800
StroudKingswood201215065332000
StroudMinchinhampton20151,471424402030440
StroudWotton-under-Edge20151,0013801,3930411519

Cotswolds, TheTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CotswoldAbbey2,2056100913015901,682
CotswoldBlockley2,1371,01106180001,629
CotswoldBourton Vale2,2231,22904660001,695
CotswoldBourton Village2,03478807630001,551
CotswoldCampden and Vale4,3102,1620792332003,286
CotswoldChedworth and Churn Valley2,15682108230001,644
CotswoldChesterton2,089503073120515401,593
CotswoldColn Valley2,0501,0760294019301,563
CotswoldErmin2,0809220520144001,586
CotswoldFairford North1,7786920377286001,355
CotswoldFosseridge2,1521,1750235023201,642
CotswoldFour Acres1,5524080622015401,184
CotswoldGrumbolds Ash with Avening2,0961,14304560001,599
CotswoldKemble2,0828610532195001,588
CotswoldLechlade, Kempsford and Fairford South4,1081,949245553386003,133
CotswoldMoreton East1,5437922141700001,176
CotswoldMoreton West1,8591,09003270001,417
CotswoldNew Mills1,45749306180001,111
CotswoldNorthleach2,2429861246000001,710
CotswoldSandywell2,0681,11304640001,577
CotswoldSiddington and Cerney Rural2,20386508150001,680
CotswoldSouth Cerney Village1,9024320705003131,450
CotswoldSt Michael's1,9484720744132101371,486
CotswoldStow2,10289907040001,603
CotswoldStratton2,1036110832016001,603
CotswoldTetbury East and Rural1,7338072442710001,322
CotswoldTetbury Town1,732622263109003261,320
CotswoldTetbury with Upton1,7618262672510001,344
CotswoldThe Ampneys and Hampton2,2711,09006420001,732
CotswoldThe Beeches1,874507160564197001,428
CotswoldThe Rissingtons1,4567380143023001,111
CotswoldWatermoor2,3936030889332001,824
StroudKingswood1,7703701608190001,349
StroudMinchinhampton3,5771,5194384150314412,727
StroudWotton-under-Edge5,2451,0814101,50404445603,999
 Total78,29131,2662,52520,2812,2092,1411,27759,699

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Cotswolds, TheEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CotswoldAbbey2,26686728642669521,682
CotswoldBlockley2,1961,086234267133001,630
CotswoldBourton Vale2,2841,27217123821211,696
CotswoldBourton Village2,09093727131024631,551
CotswoldCampden and Vale4,4292,3513514001503213,285
CotswoldChedworth and Churn Valley2,2151,066208312104451,645
CotswoldChesterton2,147733349331889111,593
CotswoldColn Valley2,1061,094178166112031,562
CotswoldErmin2,1371,03227822939801,586
CotswoldFairford North1,827812221203110911,356
CotswoldFosseridge2,2111,126211184111631,641
CotswoldFour Acres1,59557724327948011,184
CotswoldGrumbolds Ash with Avening2,1541,15120120214121,598
CotswoldKemble2,1391,085199231591401,588
CotswoldLechlade, Kempsford and Fairford South4,2212,0745223521592603,133
CotswoldMoreton East1,585792205152121501,176
CotswoldMoreton West1,9101,004177195221901,417
CotswoldNew Mills1,49753624928432811,110
CotswoldNorthleach2,3041,10929326972931,710
CotswoldSandywell2,1251,11419623613001,577
CotswoldSiddington and Cerney Rural2,2641,035255326402221,680
CotswoldSouth Cerney Village1,9547053803271013151,450
CotswoldSt Michael's2,002713333318378141,486
CotswoldStow2,1601,067196295212221,603
CotswoldStratton2,1618782423711210101,604
CotswoldTetbury East and Rural1,78186725318111921,323
CotswoldTetbury Town1,7807014241442511161,321
CotswoldTetbury with Upton1,809839299165231531,344
CotswoldThe Ampneys and Hampton2,3341,15428127522001,732
CotswoldThe Beeches1,926712330293712031,429
CotswoldThe Rissingtons1,496768106125210911,111
CotswoldWatermoor2,4598614223811381751,824
StroudKingswood1,81964837131181201,350
StroudMinchinhampton3,6751,6476012512919622,726
StroudWotton-under-Edge5,3891,7861,16371940266243,998
 Total78,29136,19910,6999,7481,2001,74910659,699

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cotswolds, The

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cotswolds, The.

Cotswolds, ThePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CotswoldAbbey2,26680429342646104101,683
CotswoldBlockley2,1961,025240267523881,630
CotswoldBourton Vale2,2841,208178238422191,696
CotswoldBourton Village2,0908792773106114101,551
CotswoldCampden and Vale4,4292,22836440022849163,285
CotswoldChedworth and Churn Valley2,2151,0042143124953131,645
CotswoldChesterton2,1476733553311269981,592
CotswoldColn Valley2,1061,03518416638128101,561
CotswoldErmin2,137972284229771671,585
CotswoldFairford North1,8277612262031421671,355
CotswoldFosseridge2,2111,06421718440124111,640
CotswoldFour Acres1,595533248279328671,185
CotswoldGrumbolds Ash with Avening2,1541,091207202394991,597
CotswoldKemble2,1391,025205231972271,587
CotswoldLechlade, Kempsford and Fairford South4,2211,95653435223342153,132
CotswoldMoreton East1,585748210152402151,176
CotswoldMoreton West1,910951183195562671,418
CotswoldNew Mills1,497494253284581461,109
CotswoldNorthleach2,3041,0453002694838111,711
CotswoldSandywell2,1251,055202236383871,576
CotswoldSiddington and Cerney Rural2,2649722623268031101,681
CotswoldSouth Cerney Village1,9546513863274421221,451
CotswoldSt Michael's2,0026573393187289111,486
CotswoldStow2,1601,007202295593091,602
CotswoldStratton2,1618182483715010971,603
CotswoldTetbury East and Rural1,781817258181322681,322
CotswoldTetbury Town1,7806514291445618221,320
CotswoldTetbury with Upton1,809789304165552291,344
CotswoldThe Ampneys and Hampton2,3341,089288275432981,732
CotswoldThe Beeches1,92665833629310527101,429
CotswoldThe Rissingtons1,4967261101252811561,110
CotswoldWatermoor2,45979342938118126131,823
StroudKingswood1,819597376311401961,349
StroudMinchinhampton3,6751,54561225194210152,727
StroudWotton-under-Edge5,3891,6361,179719135287433,999
 Total78,29133,95710,9329,7482,6162,05738259,692

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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