Delyn: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Delyn: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: David Hanson  (LAB)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 54,116
Turnout: 72.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB20,57352.2%52.6%
CON16,33341.4%37.6%
Plaid1,4813.8%3.8%
LIB1,0312.6%2.6%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LAB Majority4,24010.8%Pred Maj 15.0%
Chance of
winning
LAB
75%
CON
25%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Delyn : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Delyn constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position7° Left10° Left
National Position1° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity31%26%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age50.949.648.5
ABC1 Class46%47%53%

Delyn ranks #253 for "Leave", #473 for "Right" and #363 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Delyn: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Delyn: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Delyn

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Delyn at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Delyn. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

DelynActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
FlintshireArgoed201200-10000
FlintshireBagillt East20121362250000138
FlintshireBagillt West20120-100000
FlintshireBrynford201247218300000
FlintshireCaerwys2012-1000000
FlintshireCilcain20124012560000101
FlintshireFfynnongroyw201204220000255
FlintshireFlint Castle20120-100000
FlintshireFlint Coleshill201201,22081000246
FlintshireFlint Oakenholt2012024400068359
FlintshireFlint Trelawny201201,148143000303
FlintshireGreenfield201203600000476
FlintshireGronant201202900000205
FlintshireGwernaffield201229515150000200
FlintshireGwernymynydd201202144330000
FlintshireHalkyn201211100000462
FlintshireHolywell Central2012100327450000
FlintshireHolywell East201214832100000
FlintshireHolywell West20120150000395136
FlintshireLeeswood201202550000513
FlintshireMold Broncoed2012024990000593
FlintshireMold East201210655600000
FlintshireMold South2012125265386001830
FlintshireMold West2012024900065360
FlintshireMostyn (Delyn)201201880000385
FlintshireNew Brighton20122293344690000
FlintshireNorthop20120000001,206
FlintshireNorthop Hall201202560000442
FlintshireTrelawnyd and Gwaenysgor2012420000085251
FlintshireWhitford20129999547000126

DelynTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireArgoed2,142001,57400001,574
FlintshireBagillt East1,46129348400002971,074
FlintshireBagillt West1,71701,262000001,262
FlintshireBrynford1,678889345000001,234
FlintshireCaerwys1,9521,4350000001,435
FlintshireCilcain1,45756636200001431,071
FlintshireFfynnongroyw1,388063600003841,020
FlintshireFlint Castle1,59701,174000001,174
FlintshireFlint Coleshill3,02901,7561170003542,227
FlintshireFlint Oakenholt2,36206310001769291,736
FlintshireFlint Trelawny2,83801,5021870003962,085
FlintshireGreenfield2,122067200008881,560
FlintshireGronant1,17005040000356860
FlintshireGwernaffield1,504468240790003181,105
FlintshireGwernymynydd1,35903306680000998
FlintshireHalkyn1,32918900000788977
FlintshireHolywell Central1,51923777310600001,116
FlintshireHolywell East1,35331468100000995
FlintshireHolywell West1,80602920007702651,327
FlintshireLeeswood1,636039900008031,202
FlintshireMold Broncoed2,09704121490009811,542
FlintshireMold East1,515178935000001,113
FlintshireMold South2,0641984196110028901,517
FlintshireMold West2,02905510001447961,491
FlintshireMostyn (Delyn)1,424034300007031,046
FlintshireNew Brighton2,33238055577900001,714
FlintshireNorthop2,3470000001,7251,725
FlintshireNorthop Hall1,17103160000545861
FlintshireTrelawnyd and Gwaenysgor1,42958300001183491,050
FlintshireWhitford1,8081511518340001921,328
 Total53,6355,88115,7255,104001,49711,21239,419

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

DelynEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireArgoed2,161823526202002401,575
FlintshireBagillt East1,47443858223003101,074
FlintshireBagillt West1,7322101,0036004301,262
FlintshireBrynford1,6937654316003101,233
FlintshireCaerwys1,9701,09127625004301,435
FlintshireCilcain1,4705904339003901,071
FlintshireFfynnongroyw1,4003246645002701,020
FlintshireFlint Castle1,61113898923002401,174
FlintshireFlint Coleshill3,0565511,6561300702,227
FlintshireFlint Oakenholt2,3835811,017250011401,737
FlintshireFlint Trelawny2,8635971,41061001702,085
FlintshireGreenfield2,1415219913004401,559
FlintshireGronant1,18026058650090860
FlintshireGwernaffield1,51766241320001001,105
FlintshireGwernymynydd1,3713885117400250998
FlintshireHalkyn1,341586352200370977
FlintshireHolywell Central1,53332275824001201,116
FlintshireHolywell East1,365362599900250995
FlintshireHolywell West1,82236556330039701,328
FlintshireLeeswood1,65153661023003201,201
FlintshireMold Broncoed2,11671275854001701,541
FlintshireMold East1,52934371531002401,113
FlintshireMold South2,0836156221050017501,517
FlintshireMold West2,047518832290011101,490
FlintshireMostyn (Delyn)1,43738661317003001,046
FlintshireNew Brighton2,35380178012800501,714
FlintshireNorthop2,3681,0806237001501,725
FlintshireNorthop Hall1,18242942540030861
FlintshireTrelawnyd and Gwaenysgor1,4426413156008801,050
FlintshireWhitford1,82469852187002201,328
 Total53,63516,33320,5741,029001,481039,419

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Delyn

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Delyn.

DelynPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireArgoed2,1617625322023982481,575
FlintshireBagillt East1,474396586232663151,073
FlintshireBagillt West1,7321691,00762664351,262
FlintshireBrynford1,69371743663073161,233
FlintshireCaerwys1,9701,035282253584371,435
FlintshireCilcain1,47054843792663951,070
FlintshireFfynnongroyw1,40028466852552751,019
FlintshireFlint Castle1,611111992231742431,174
FlintshireFlint Coleshill3,0564641,6651355127112,227
FlintshireFlint Oakenholt2,3835131,0242543911481,736
FlintshireFlint Trelawny2,8635161,41861511117102,084
FlintshireGreenfield2,14146099733884481,558
FlintshireGronant1,180226589521594859
FlintshireGwernaffield1,517619417202761051,104
FlintshireGwernymynydd1,37134951574255255998
FlintshireHalkyn1,3415483562245375977
FlintshireHolywell Central1,533279763242761251,116
FlintshireHolywell East1,3653236039255255995
FlintshireHolywell West1,822313568333739761,327
FlintshireLeeswood1,651489615233063261,201
FlintshireMold Broncoed2,116652764543881771,540
FlintshireMold East1,529300720312762451,113
FlintshireMold South2,08355662810537817571,516
FlintshireMold West2,0474608382937811171,490
FlintshireMostyn (Delyn)1,437345617172663051,046
FlintshireNew Brighton2,353734787128429581,713
FlintshireNorthop2,3681,01363074391581,725
FlintshireNorthop Hall1,182395428421534860
FlintshireTrelawnyd and Gwaenysgor1,44260031962668851,050
FlintshireWhitford1,824646526873372261,327
 Total53,63514,82220,7271,0299532071,48118439,403

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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