Derbyshire Dales: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Derbyshire Dales: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Patrick McLoughlin  (CON)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 64,418
Turnout: 77.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,74460.0%56.3%
LAB15,41731.1%31.5%
LIB3,1266.3%6.3%
Green1,0022.0%2.5%
OTH2820.6%1.0%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
CON Majority14,32728.9%Pred Maj 24.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
86%
LAB
14%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Derbyshire Dales : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Derbyshire Dales constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right3° Right
National Position4° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %51%59%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born97%91%88%
Good Education45%36%39%
Good Job54%48%51%
High SEC56%47%51%
Average Age53.549.148.5
ABC1 Class57%50%53%

Derbyshire Dales ranks #385 for "Leave", #241 for "Right" and #276 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Derbyshire Dales: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Derbyshire Dales: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Derbyshire Dales

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Derbyshire Dales at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Derbyshire Dales. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Derbyshire DalesActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Amber ValleyAlport20151,126323002110
Amber ValleyCrich201578442518001090
Amber ValleySouth West Parishes20151,3470003770
Derbyshire DalesAshbourne North20152,2456810000
Derbyshire DalesAshbourne South20152,495596005270
Derbyshire DalesBakewell20154,1371,10801,2747430
Derbyshire DalesBradwell20157563730000
Derbyshire DalesBrailsford2015-100000
Derbyshire DalesCalver20157534210000
Derbyshire DalesCarsington Water2015-100000
Derbyshire DalesChatsworth2015-100000
Derbyshire DalesClifton and Bradley2015727001790298
Derbyshire DalesDarley Dale20153,4521,49701,30302,077
Derbyshire DalesDovedale and Parwich2015-100000
Derbyshire DalesDoveridge and Sudbury20158730029100
Derbyshire DalesHartington and Taddington2015-100000
Derbyshire DalesHathersage and Eyam20152,4601,9670000
Derbyshire DalesHulland2015-100000
Derbyshire DalesLathkill and Bradford201500000934
Derbyshire DalesLitton and Longstone2015-100000
Derbyshire DalesMasson20151,6321,3940000
Derbyshire DalesMatlock All Saints20153,0571,5313,354000
Derbyshire DalesMatlock St Giles20152,4752,3592,4821,12000
Derbyshire DalesNorbury20157990024100
Derbyshire DalesStanton2015-100000
Derbyshire DalesTideswell20156554000000
Derbyshire DalesWinster and South Darley201500000-1
Derbyshire DalesWirksworth20151,0964,23205781,5470

Derbyshire DalesTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Amber ValleyAlport1,9461,0312960019301,520
Amber ValleyCrich1,944795431182011001,518
Amber ValleySouth West Parishes2,1861,33400037301,707
Derbyshire DalesAshbourne North3,0451,82555300002,378
Derbyshire DalesAshbourne South3,9262,1145050044703,066
Derbyshire DalesBakewell3,8351,706457052530602,994
Derbyshire DalesBradwell1,47377038000001,150
Derbyshire DalesBrailsford1,3611,063000001,063
Derbyshire DalesCalver1,45172740600001,133
Derbyshire DalesCarsington Water1,5281,193000001,193
Derbyshire DalesChatsworth1,3501,054000001,054
Derbyshire DalesClifton and Bradley1,4806980017202861,156
Derbyshire DalesDarley Dale4,3541,409611053208483,400
Derbyshire DalesDovedale and Parwich1,3931,088000001,088
Derbyshire DalesDoveridge and Sudbury2,0931,22600409001,635
Derbyshire DalesHartington and Taddington1,3601,062000001,062
Derbyshire DalesHathersage and Eyam3,1361,3611,08800002,449
Derbyshire DalesHulland1,4321,118000001,118
Derbyshire DalesLathkill and Bradford1,27600000997997
Derbyshire DalesLitton and Longstone1,3001,015000001,015
Derbyshire DalesMasson2,4071,01486600001,880
Derbyshire DalesMatlock All Saints4,3251,3006511,4260003,377
Derbyshire DalesMatlock St Giles4,3671,0019541,003453003,411
Derbyshire DalesNorbury1,40784400255001,099
Derbyshire DalesStanton1,5131,182000001,182
Derbyshire DalesTideswell1,51173344700001,180
Derbyshire DalesWinster and South Darley1,390000001,0861,086
Derbyshire DalesWirksworth4,6835382,077028475903,658
 Total63,47229,2019,7222,6112,6302,1883,21749,569

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Derbyshire DalesEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Amber ValleyAlport1,9751,0324152504811,521
Amber ValleyCrich1,97383652112503331,518
Amber ValleySouth West Parishes2,2191,3102585108721,708
Derbyshire DalesAshbourne North3,0901,672617780562,378
Derbyshire DalesAshbourne South3,9851,951921750106133,066
Derbyshire DalesBakewell3,8921,7609301900102132,995
Derbyshire DalesBradwell1,4957143743901941,150
Derbyshire DalesBrailsford1,38196286110321,064
Derbyshire DalesCalver1,473725363370531,133
Derbyshire DalesCarsington Water1,5511,0051393301421,193
Derbyshire DalesChatsworth1,370875105660711,054
Derbyshire DalesClifton and Bradley1,5028222932501141,155
Derbyshire DalesDarley Dale4,4191,7161,480137024443,401
Derbyshire DalesDovedale and Parwich1,4149341132301261,088
Derbyshire DalesDoveridge and Sudbury2,1241,273321370321,636
Derbyshire DalesHartington and Taddington1,3808801353401131,063
Derbyshire DalesHathersage and Eyam3,1831,37587216403352,449
Derbyshire DalesHulland1,453936159220111,119
Derbyshire DalesLathkill and Bradford1,2952905786601746997
Derbyshire DalesLitton and Longstone1,319877883201631,016
Derbyshire DalesMasson2,4431,0027595905371,880
Derbyshire DalesMatlock All Saints4,3891,4621,008851046113,378
Derbyshire DalesMatlock St Giles4,4321,3201,397648034113,410
Derbyshire DalesNorbury1,428852224200221,100
Derbyshire DalesStanton1,5369271706201751,181
Derbyshire DalesTideswell1,5347094252701551,181
Derbyshire DalesWinster and South Darley1,41136457867026511,086
Derbyshire DalesWirksworth4,7531,1642,0891240265153,657
 Total63,47229,74515,4183,12801,00528149,569

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Derbyshire Dales

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Derbyshire Dales.

Derbyshire DalesPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Amber ValleyAlport1,97597542125365681,521
Amber ValleyCrich1,9737795271253641101,518
Amber ValleySouth West Parishes2,2191,246265514096101,708
Derbyshire DalesAshbourne North3,0901,583626785617172,377
Derbyshire DalesAshbourne South3,9851,8379337572122273,066
Derbyshire DalesBakewell3,8921,64894219071117272,995
Derbyshire DalesBradwell1,49567137839272591,149
Derbyshire DalesBrailsford1,381922901125871,063
Derbyshire DalesCalver1,47368336737271181,133
Derbyshire DalesCarsington Water1,55196114433282081,194
Derbyshire DalesChatsworth1,37083610966251261,054
Derbyshire DalesClifton and Bradley1,50277929725277191,154
Derbyshire DalesDarley Dale4,4191,5891,4931378041603,400
Derbyshire DalesDovedale and Parwich1,414893117232618111,088
Derbyshire DalesDoveridge and Sudbury2,1241,212327373911101,636
Derbyshire DalesHartington and Taddington1,38084013934251681,062
Derbyshire DalesHathersage and Eyam3,1831,2848811645846162,449
Derbyshire DalesHulland1,4538941632226761,118
Derbyshire DalesLathkill and Bradford1,29525358266242251998
Derbyshire DalesLitton and Longstone1,3198399232242181,016
Derbyshire DalesMasson2,443932766594463161,880
Derbyshire DalesMatlock All Saints4,3891,3361,0218518063273,378
Derbyshire DalesMatlock St Giles4,4321,1931,4106488052273,410
Derbyshire DalesNorbury1,4288112282026871,100
Derbyshire DalesStanton1,536883175622823101,181
Derbyshire DalesTideswell1,534665430272821101,181
Derbyshire DalesWinster and South Darley1,411324582672632561,087
Derbyshire DalesWirksworth4,7531,0282,10312486284323,657
 Total63,47227,89615,6083,1281,1701,26051149,573

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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