Derbyshire North East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Derbyshire North East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Lee Rowley  (CON)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 72,097
Turnout: 69.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON24,78449.2%45.5%
LAB21,92343.5%43.9%
UKIP1,5653.1%5.5%
LIB1,3902.8%2.8%
Green7191.4%1.9%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority2,8615.7%Pred Maj 1.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
55%
LAB
45%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Derbyshire North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Derbyshire North East constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position3° Left3° Right
National Position9° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %62%59%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health43%45%48%
UK Born98%91%88%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job49%48%51%
High SEC49%47%51%
Average Age51.849.148.5
ABC1 Class49%50%53%

Derbyshire North East ranks #116 for "Leave", #421 for "Right" and #147 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Derbyshire North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Derbyshire North East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Derbyshire North East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Derbyshire North East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Derbyshire North East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Derbyshire North EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ChesterfieldBarrow Hill and New Whittington20157542,2611,9912,0890117
ChesterfieldLowgates and Woodthorpe20157352,221000332
North East DerbyshireAshover20159532180000
North East DerbyshireBarlow and Holmesfield2015719286020800
North East DerbyshireBrampton and Walton20152,806536044500
North East DerbyshireClay Cross North20152,3264,422067800
North East DerbyshireClay Cross South20158302,4450000
North East DerbyshireCoal Aston20151,9751,299028300
North East DerbyshireDronfield North20151,6621,9900000
North East DerbyshireDronfield South20154,3823,1720000
North East DerbyshireDronfield Woodhouse20152,4481,2520000
North East DerbyshireEckington North20156521,44807830263
North East DerbyshireEckington South20157362,0050000
North East DerbyshireGosforth Valley20154,5072,7640000
North East DerbyshireGrassmoor20155942,004043900
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh East20159982,0610000
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh West20151,6184,519000575
North East DerbyshireNorth Wingfield Central20152,1674,5190000
North East DerbyshireRenishaw20153997340000
North East DerbyshireRidgeway and Marsh Lane20154515190000
North East DerbyshireTupton20151,0282,1830000
North East DerbyshireUnstone2015367387000192
North East DerbyshireWingerworth20155,4851,3670000

Derbyshire North EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChesterfieldBarrow Hill and New Whittington4,5893381,0148939370523,234
ChesterfieldLowgates and Woodthorpe3,6395741,7330002592,566
North East DerbyshireAshover1,47184419300001,037
North East DerbyshireBarlow and Holmesfield1,5006272490181001,057
North East DerbyshireBrampton and Walton2,8781,5042870238002,029
North East DerbyshireClay Cross North4,5189981,8970291003,186
North East DerbyshireClay Cross South2,9805321,56900002,101
North East DerbyshireCoal Aston2,5951,0166680146001,830
North East DerbyshireDronfield North3,2171,0321,23600002,268
North East DerbyshireDronfield South4,1691,7051,23400002,939
North East DerbyshireDronfield Woodhouse2,7571,28665800001,944
North East DerbyshireEckington North2,831414919049701671,997
North East DerbyshireEckington South2,9685621,53100002,093
North East DerbyshireGosforth Valley3,9571,7291,06100002,790
North East DerbyshireGrassmoor3,0174161,4040307002,127
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh East2,9636821,40800002,090
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh West4,4417552,1080002683,131
North East DerbyshireNorth Wingfield Central4,5131,0312,15100003,182
North East DerbyshireRenishaw2,12252796900001,496
North East DerbyshireRidgeway and Marsh Lane1,43447054100001,011
North East DerbyshireTupton3,1107021,49100002,193
North East DerbyshireUnstone1,4754034250002111,039
North East DerbyshireWingerworth4,3122,43460700003,041
 Total71,45620,58125,3538932,597095750,381

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Derbyshire North EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChesterfieldBarrow Hill and New Whittington4,6301,0241,3524813166203,235
ChesterfieldLowgates and Woodthorpe3,6729621,45031744902,566
North East DerbyshireAshover1,484816189214701,037
North East DerbyshireBarlow and Holmesfield1,51372522336591501,058
North East DerbyshireBrampton and Walton2,9041,51039123743002,028
North East DerbyshireClay Cross North4,5591,2331,672461686603,185
North East DerbyshireClay Cross South3,0077081,25255582802,101
North East DerbyshireCoal Aston2,6181,12257263522101,830
North East DerbyshireDronfield North3,2461,1531,01945292202,268
North East DerbyshireDronfield South4,2061,7791,0455046102,939
North East DerbyshireDronfield Woodhouse2,7821,3225366781101,944
North East DerbyshireEckington North2,856845879541823701,997
North East DerbyshireEckington South2,9957751,20433592102,092
North East DerbyshireGosforth Valley3,9921,7349279053402,790
North East DerbyshireGrassmoor3,0447111,189531453002,128
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh East2,9909341,06614522402,090
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh West4,4811,2651,69159724503,132
North East DerbyshireNorth Wingfield Central4,5531,2301,81827654203,182
North East DerbyshireRenishaw2,1416308088381201,496
North East DerbyshireRidgeway and Marsh Lane1,4475753971191901,011
North East DerbyshireTupton3,1389311,15918523302,193
North East DerbyshireUnstone1,48857538437251901,040
North East DerbyshireWingerworth4,3512,22570069153103,040
 Total71,45624,78421,9231,3911,565719050,381

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Derbyshire North East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Derbyshire North East.

Derbyshire North EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChesterfieldBarrow Hill and New Whittington4,6309031,36548139279153,235
ChesterfieldLowgates and Woodthorpe3,6728661,4603113562122,566
North East DerbyshireAshover1,48477719321281251,036
North East DerbyshireBarlow and Holmesfield1,51368622736842051,058
North East DerbyshireBrampton and Walton2,9041,434399231224092,027
North East DerbyshireClay Cross North4,5591,1141,6844624382153,184
North East DerbyshireClay Cross South3,0076301,2605510839102,102
North East DerbyshireCoal Aston2,6181,05457963953081,829
North East DerbyshireDronfield North3,2461,0681,028458234102,267
North East DerbyshireDronfield South4,2061,6691,056507376142,938
North East DerbyshireDronfield Woodhouse2,7821,25054467542191,945
North East DerbyshireEckington North2,856771887542294791,997
North East DerbyshireEckington South2,9956971,2123310832102,092
North East DerbyshireGosforth Valley3,9921,630938907148132,790
North East DerbyshireGrassmoor3,0446321,1975319541102,128
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh East2,9908561,0741410135102,090
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh West4,4811,1481,7035914661143,131
North East DerbyshireNorth Wingfield Central4,5531,1111,8302714058153,181
North East DerbyshireRenishaw2,1415748148732071,496
North East DerbyshireRidgeway and Marsh Lane1,44753740111332451,011
North East DerbyshireTupton3,1388491,1671810444102,192
North East DerbyshireUnstone1,48853638837502451,040
North East DerbyshireWingerworth4,3512,112712698747143,041
 Total71,45622,90422,1181,3912,75397623450,376

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)