Devizes: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Devizes: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Claire Perry  (CON)
County/Area: Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate: 72,184
Turnout: 70.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,74462.7%59.7%
LAB10,60821.0%19.9%
LIB4,7069.3%9.4%
UKIP1,7063.4%6.5%
Green1,6063.2%4.4%
OTH2230.4%0.1%
CON Majority21,13641.8%Pred Maj 39.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
96%
LAB
3%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Devizes : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devizes constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right1° Right
National Position5° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health52%47%48%
UK Born91%92%88%
Good Education42%40%39%
Good Job57%50%51%
High SEC59%52%51%
Average Age48.550.548.5
ABC1 Class60%54%53%

Devizes ranks #320 for "Leave", #126 for "Right" and #247 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devizes: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Devizes: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Devizes

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Devizes at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Devizes. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

DevizesActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
WiltshireAldbourne and Ramsbury20139520000538
WiltshireBromham, Rowde and Potterne20136840054800
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean20134410000435
WiltshireBurbage and the Bedwyns20139912090000
WiltshireDevizes East2013436223000314
WiltshireDevizes North2013453233000395
WiltshireDevizes and Roundway South20134711828300642
WiltshireDurrington and Larkhill201330401,106000
WiltshireLudgershall and Perham Down2013-100000
WiltshireMarlborough East20133529112900526
WiltshireMarlborough West201346872000674
WiltshirePewsey20139353260000
WiltshirePewsey Vale2013808167280000
WiltshireRoundway2013678106000277
WiltshireSummerham and Seend20139830045600
WiltshireThe Collingbournes and Netheravon2013-100000
WiltshireThe Lavingtons and Erlestoke20131,0043060000
WiltshireTidworth2013-100000
WiltshireUrchfont and The Cannings2013660224044500
WiltshireWest Selkley20138302440000

DevizesTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAldbourne and Ramsbury3,7341,74400009862,730
WiltshireBromham, Rowde and Potterne3,4731,410001,129002,539
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean3,5271,29800001,2802,578
WiltshireBurbage and the Bedwyns3,4572,08744000002,527
WiltshireDevizes East2,9139544880006872,129
WiltshireDevizes North2,9168934590007792,131
WiltshireDevizes and Roundway South3,103775300137001,0572,269
WiltshireDurrington and Larkhill5,26783003,0200003,850
WiltshireLudgershall and Perham Down4,1903,063000003,063
WiltshireMarlborough East2,889677175248001,0122,112
WiltshireMarlborough West3,0968721340001,2572,263
WiltshirePewsey3,3131,79662600002,422
WiltshirePewsey Vale3,1911,5023105200002,332
WiltshireRoundway3,2641,5252380006232,386
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,0655320024700779
WiltshireThe Collingbournes and Netheravon2,9672,169000002,169
WiltshireThe Lavingtons and Erlestoke4,1752,33971300003,052
WiltshireTidworth6,5504,788000004,788
WiltshireUrchfont and The Cannings3,0531,1083760747002,231
WiltshireWest Selkley3,0671,73350900002,242
 Total69,21032,0954,7683,9252,12307,68150,592

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

DevizesEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAldbourne and Ramsbury3,8941,8485681536140162,731
WiltshireBromham, Rowde and Potterne3,6221,4733571485035532,539
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean3,6791,44276313146165302,577
WiltshireBurbage and the Bedwyns3,6061,8964848785012,526
WiltshireDevizes East3,0389718341556296112,129
WiltshireDevizes North3,04196678517358133162,131
WiltshireDevizes and Roundway South3,2361,03378423459143162,269
WiltshireDurrington and Larkhill5,4931,6274041,7225920193,851
WiltshireLudgershall and Perham Down4,3702,50224214613029153,064
WiltshireMarlborough East3,01389072433910133152,111
WiltshireMarlborough West3,2291,17868417811192192,262
WiltshirePewsey3,4551,559635151106512,421
WiltshirePewsey Vale3,3281,57937831385412,333
WiltshireRoundway3,4041,41768712734111102,386
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,11152310725103200778
WiltshireThe Collingbournes and Netheravon3,0941,84921574111912,169
WiltshireThe Lavingtons and Erlestoke4,3542,213588158474143,051
WiltshireTidworth6,8313,86842123318642384,788
WiltshireUrchfont and The Cannings3,1841,2374741093506022,232
WiltshireWest Selkley3,1991,6744735043642,241
 Total69,21031,74510,6074,7061,7051,60422250,592

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devizes

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devizes.

DevizesPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAldbourne and Ramsbury3,8941,76553115510017642,731
WiltshireBromham, Rowde and Potterne3,6221,3963331495768312,538
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean3,6791,36472813314220282,577
WiltshireBurbage and the Bedwyns3,6061,81945288868002,525
WiltshireDevizes East3,03890680515613412432,128
WiltshireDevizes North3,04190175617413316242,130
WiltshireDevizes and Roundway South3,23696475423513817442,269
WiltshireDurrington and Larkhill5,4931,5103771,7241726453,852
WiltshireLudgershall and Perham Down4,3702,4092261482166243,065
WiltshireMarlborough East3,0138266963408416242,112
WiltshireMarlborough West3,2291,1096541799222352,262
WiltshirePewsey3,4551,486603152869402,421
WiltshirePewsey Vale3,3281,508353314778102,333
WiltshireRoundway3,4041,34565512811414232,387
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,11149910025125280777
WiltshireThe Collingbournes and Netheravon3,0941,78320175694102,169
WiltshireThe Lavingtons and Erlestoke4,3542,1205491601437813,051
WiltshireTidworth6,8313,72339323633098104,790
WiltshireUrchfont and The Cannings3,1841,1694441104218712,232
WiltshireWest Selkley3,1991,60644351766412,241
 Total69,21030,20810,0534,7323,3142,2255850,590

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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