Devon Central: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Devon Central: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Mel Stride  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 74,370
Turnout: 77.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,27854.1%50.3%
LAB15,59827.0%27.4%
LIB6,77011.7%11.7%
Green1,5312.6%3.2%
UKIP1,3262.3%4.7%
MIN8711.5%1.5%
OTH4700.8%1.3%
CON Majority15,68027.1%Pred Maj 23.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
84%
LAB
14%
LIB
2%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
MIN
0%
OTH
0%

Devon Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devon Central constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Right1° Right
National Position1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education43%40%39%
Good Job50%50%51%
High SEC54%52%51%
Average Age53.250.548.5
ABC1 Class54%54%53%

Devon Central ranks #398 for "Leave", #311 for "Right" and #365 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devon Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Devon Central: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Devon Central

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Devon Central at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Devon Central. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Devon CentralActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East DevonExe Valley20156240000573
Mid DevonBoniface201592701,6843872930
Mid DevonBradninch20154590709000
Mid DevonCadbury201535018001220398
Mid DevonLawrence20151,2083571,6594202100
Mid DevonNewbrooke2015522244000217
Mid DevonSandford and Creedy20152,09349533805510
Mid DevonSilverton2015375053901980
Mid DevonTaw2015636122257000
Mid DevonTaw Vale2015647022701390
Mid DevonUpper Yeo2015-100000
Mid DevonWay20157432410000
Mid DevonYeo20152,162373911000
TeignbridgeAshburton and Buckfastleigh20154,2787762,99402,429724
TeignbridgeBovey20156,2001,3723,1570966626
TeignbridgeChudleigh20152,46759750805852,093
TeignbridgeHaytor2015825047000507
TeignbridgeKenn Valley20153,42302,79107970
TeignbridgeMoorland201500003771,331
TeignbridgeTeign Valley201570918400276651
TeignbridgeTeignbridge North2015760029200849
West DevonBridestowe20151,084303004491,298
West DevonChagford2015308000208433
West DevonDrewsteignton20157020003680
West DevonExbourne20152,7345850000
West DevonHatherleigh2015-200000
West DevonOkehampton North20153,4940006762,347
West DevonOkehampton South20151,36152004120398
West DevonSouth Tawton2015327000254655

Devon CentralTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonExe Valley1,66669100006341,325
Mid DevonBoniface3,14170401,27829422202,498
Mid DevonBradninch1,67252308070001,330
Mid DevonCadbury1,336354182012304031,062
Mid DevonLawrence3,0777672271,05326713302,447
Mid DevonNewbrooke1,2605322490002211,002
Mid DevonSandford and Creedy2,8021,341317217035302,228
Mid DevonSilverton1,5164070584021501,206
Mid DevonTaw1,3406681282700001,066
Mid DevonTaw Vale1,3376790238014601,063
Mid DevonUpper Yeo1,4361,142000001,142
Mid DevonWay1,33079925900001,058
Mid DevonYeo2,8261,4102435940002,247
TeignbridgeAshburton and Buckfastleigh6,3151,9183481,34201,0893255,022
TeignbridgeBovey6,2922,5185571,28203922545,003
TeignbridgeChudleigh5,0231,57738232503741,3383,996
TeignbridgeHaytor2,3458540486005251,865
TeignbridgeKenn Valley4,8421,88001,533043803,851
TeignbridgeMoorland2,29400004031,4221,825
TeignbridgeTeign Valley2,193679176002646241,743
TeignbridgeTeignbridge North2,1606870264007671,718
West DevonBridestowe2135916002470169
West DevonChagford1,175303000205426934
West DevonDrewsteignton1,33269500036401,059
West DevonExbourne3,0161,97642300002,399
West DevonHatherleigh2,4121,918000001,918
West DevonOkehampton North3,6411,5520003001,0432,895
West DevonOkehampton South3,1421,264483038303702,500
West DevonSouth Tawton1,6013370002626751,274
 Total72,73528,2343,99010,2731,0675,1849,09757,845

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Devon CentralEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonExe Valley1,703813369581313591,325
Mid DevonBoniface3,21290366363021957262,498
Mid DevonBradninch1,7105873593144014151,329
Mid DevonCadbury1,36653231990744431,062
Mid DevonLawrence3,14698967454516552212,446
Mid DevonNewbrooke1,28853934274218271,002
Mid DevonSandford and Creedy2,8651,3954672183686272,229
Mid DevonSilverton1,550545310288843101,204
Mid DevonTaw1,3706462171521523141,067
Mid DevonTaw Vale1,367656172160303871,063
Mid DevonUpper Yeo1,468914129472315141,142
Mid DevonWay1,360756241433961,058
Mid DevonYeo2,8901,4264612971916302,249
TeignbridgeAshburton and Buckfastleigh6,4572,1121,67178437323955,022
TeignbridgeBovey6,4332,7121,3427285685805,003
TeignbridgeChudleigh5,1361,9991,346343471171423,994
TeignbridgeHaytor2,3981,0484442642523601,864
TeignbridgeKenn Valley4,9512,0739286912286503,850
TeignbridgeMoorland2,346641834100151001341,824
TeignbridgeTeign Valley2,242919573112864671,743
TeignbridgeTeignbridge North2,209944497177228701,718
West DevonBridestowe21898506357169
West DevonChagford1,2014573024987841935
West DevonDrewsteignton1,3627121955938271,058
West DevonExbourne3,0841,64960895817212,398
West DevonHatherleigh2,4661,5451341257511281,918
West DevonOkehampton North3,7231,73478112387581142,897
West DevonOkehampton South3,2131,34770013125314542,499
West DevonSouth Tawton1,637588467661071711,273
 Total72,73531,27915,5956,7691,3261,5301,34057,845

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devon Central

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devon Central.

Devon CentralPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonExe Valley1,703763374584420651,324
Mid DevonBoniface3,21280967363027870382,498
Mid DevonBradninch1,7105373643147221211,329
Mid DevonCadbury1,366492323909910481,062
Mid DevonLawrence3,14689768454522365322,446
Mid DevonNewbrooke1,288501346742623321,002
Mid DevonSandford and Creedy2,8651,3114762188998372,229
Mid DevonSilverton1,5505003152883749161,205
Mid DevonTaw1,3706062211524029191,067
Mid DevonTaw Vale1,3676161761605544121,063
Mid DevonUpper Yeo1,468871133475021191,141
Mid DevonWay1,360716245432814111,057
Mid DevonYeo2,8901,3414702977228412,249
TeignbridgeAshburton and Buckfastleigh6,4571,9231,6917841563491185,021
TeignbridgeBovey6,4332,5241,3627281751111035,003
TeignbridgeChudleigh5,1361,8491,3623431421381613,995
TeignbridgeHaytor2,3989784512646933691,864
TeignbridgeKenn Valley4,9511,928943691113106683,849
TeignbridgeMoorland2,346572841100581091431,823
TeignbridgeTeign Valley2,2428535801124973751,742
TeignbridgeTeignbridge North2,2098795041776317781,718
West DevonBridestowe21892516768170
West DevonChagford1,20142230649308345935
West DevonDrewsteignton1,362672199592887121,057
West DevonExbourne3,0841,559617956529322,397
West DevonHatherleigh2,4661,47314112512121371,918
West DevonOkehampton North3,7231,625792123156731282,897
West DevonOkehampton South3,2131,25371013131227662,499
West DevonSouth Tawton1,637540472664078771,273
 Total72,73529,10215,8226,7692,6971,8321,61157,833

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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