Devon East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Devon East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Hugo Swire  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 82,382
Turnout: 73.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,30648.5%44.8%
MIN21,27035.2%35.2%
LAB6,85711.4%11.7%
LIB1,4682.4%2.4%
UKIP1,2032.0%4.4%
OTH2780.5%0.9%
Green00.0%0.5%
CON Majority8,03613.3%Pred Maj 9.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
73%
MIN
10%
LAB
12%
LIB
4%
UKIP
1%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Devon East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devon East constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Left1° Right
National Position2° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education43%40%39%
Good Job54%50%51%
High SEC59%52%51%
Average Age54.650.548.5
ABC1 Class57%54%53%

Devon East ranks #400 for "Leave", #375 for "Right" and #322 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devon East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Devon East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Devon East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Devon East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Devon East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Devon EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East DevonBroadclyst20153,45601,504001,519
East DevonBudleigh20155,3390001,2441,525
East DevonClyst Valley2015-100000
East DevonExmouth Brixington20154,754733855001,281
East DevonExmouth Halsdon20154,6019831,419001,631
East DevonExmouth Littleham20154,79201,1701,0641,1021,224
East DevonExmouth Town20152,4327142,77608040
East DevonExmouth Withycombe Raleigh20153,11303,56008040
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell201528800001,048
East DevonNewton Poppleford and Harpford20154860000764
East DevonOttery St Mary Rural20152,15100002,733
East DevonOttery St Mary Town20151,3245130003,074
East DevonRaleigh20155250000950
East DevonSidmouth Rural20156090000813
East DevonSidmouth Sidford20153,9460526004,819
East DevonSidmouth Town20153,08600005,031
East DevonWhimple20157920673000
East DevonWoodbury and Lympstone20151,01300003,367
ExeterSt Loyes20151,4869112824492340
ExeterTopsham20152,1051,02345103420

Devon EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonBroadclyst3,8251,6600722007303,112
East DevonBudleigh4,7242,5310005907233,844
East DevonClyst Valley1,8081,471000001,471
East DevonExmouth Brixington4,9912,532390455006824,059
East DevonExmouth Halsdon5,3252,308493712008184,331
East DevonExmouth Littleham5,6862,37005795265456054,625
East DevonExmouth Town5,4931,6164741,844053404,468
East DevonExmouth Withycombe Raleigh5,7281,94002,219050104,660
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell31500002025
East DevonNewton Poppleford and Harpford1,65552300008231,346
East DevonOttery St Mary Rural3,2151,15200001,4642,616
East DevonOttery St Mary Town3,8908533310001,9813,165
East DevonRaleigh1,67948600008801,366
East DevonSidmouth Rural1,72660100008031,404
East DevonSidmouth Sidford5,0361,7400232002,1254,097
East DevonSidmouth Town4,0961,26700002,0653,332
East DevonWhimple1,85881706940001,511
East DevonWoodbury and Lympstone4,16578400002,6053,389
ExeterSt Loyes4,9041,7631,08133553327803,990
ExeterTopsham4,3901,917932411031103,571
 Total74,22528,3363,7018,2031,0592,75916,32460,382

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Devon EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonBroadclyst4,2451,684261664701,0533,111
East DevonBudleigh5,2432,3311621044601,2003,843
East DevonClyst Valley2,0071,148781602381,471
East DevonExmouth Brixington5,5392,2684766610101,1484,059
East DevonExmouth Halsdon5,9102,1126191568001,3644,331
East DevonExmouth Littleham6,3112,34940812233601,4104,625
East DevonExmouth Town6,0971,8329912184501,3814,467
East DevonExmouth Withycombe Raleigh6,3572,06674126511901,4684,659
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell34810101424
East DevonNewton Poppleford and Harpford1,837646401706511,345
East DevonOttery St Mary Rural3,5681,3684018901,1802,615
East DevonOttery St Mary Town4,3171,232346111701,5593,165
East DevonRaleigh1,864607772206771,365
East DevonSidmouth Rural1,916679559406571,404
East DevonSidmouth Sidford5,5891,9031361445301,8614,097
East DevonSidmouth Town4,5461,55744117201,6133,333
East DevonWhimple2,062858172631004091,512
East DevonWoodbury and Lympstone4,6231,183138132402,0313,389
ExeterSt Loyes5,4431,7351,0974227808373,989
ExeterTopsham4,8721,736973501707963,572
 Total74,22529,3026,8551,4681,204021,54760,382

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devon East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devon East.

Devon EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonBroadclyst4,2451,56727366121161,0673,110
East DevonBudleigh5,2432,187177104137201,2183,843
East DevonClyst Valley2,0071,0938414182451,472
East DevonExmouth Brixington5,5392,11649266197211,1674,059
East DevonExmouth Halsdon5,9101,949636156183221,3844,330
East DevonExmouth Littleham6,3112,175426122446241,4324,625
East DevonExmouth Town6,0971,6641,008218151231,4024,466
East DevonExmouth Withycombe Raleigh6,3571,891759265230241,4904,659
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell34710201424
East DevonNewton Poppleford and Harpford1,8375954513976571,344
East DevonOttery St Mary Rural3,5681,270501871141,1922,615
East DevonOttery St Mary Town4,3171,1133581192161,5743,164
East DevonRaleigh1,8645568223476831,364
East DevonSidmouth Rural1,9166266093776641,403
East DevonSidmouth Sidford5,5891,749152144150211,8804,096
East DevonSidmouth Town4,5461,4325711781171,6293,333
East DevonWhimple2,062801178634684161,512
East DevonWoodbury and Lympstone4,6231,05615113104182,0473,389
ExeterSt Loyes5,4431,5851,11342373218563,990
ExeterTopsham4,8721,60298750102198133,573
 Total74,22527,0347,0891,4682,63731321,83060,371

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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