Devon North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Devon North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Peter Heaton-Jones  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 75,784
Turnout: 73.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON25,51745.8%42.7%
LIB21,18538.0%38.1%
LAB7,06312.7%12.0%
UKIP1,1872.1%4.8%
Green7531.4%2.4%
CON Majority4,3327.8%Pred Maj 4.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
60%
LIB
36%
LAB
4%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Devon North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devon North constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right1° Right
National Position3° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education35%40%39%
Good Job44%50%51%
High SEC47%52%51%
Average Age52.450.548.5
ABC1 Class46%54%53%

Devon North ranks #236 for "Leave", #292 for "Right" and #302 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devon North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Devon North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Devon North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Devon North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Devon North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Devon NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
North DevonBickington and Roundswell20151,6771831,201556361426
North DevonBishop's Nympton201500002681,052
North DevonBratton Fleming20154568400164594
North DevonBraunton East20151,5711581,530081554
North DevonBraunton West20152,3224821,435000
North DevonCentral Town201597301,6910941105
North DevonChittlehampton201553800178173735
North DevonChulmleigh201572302792271800
North DevonCombe Martin20151,5940004682,095
North DevonForches and Whiddon Valley201591501,4900534130
North DevonFremington20151,004006883072,366
North DevonGeorgeham and Mortehoe20151,57201,48709350
North DevonHeanton Punchardon20156660003150
North DevonIlfracombe Central20151,2073270396798520
North DevonIlfracombe East20154100000962
North DevonIlfracombe West20159852531,353579663101
North DevonInstow20156760003260
North DevonLandkey, Swimbridge and Taw20152,53201,3764849560
North DevonLongbridge20152,3812311,29105360
North DevonLynton and Lynmouth20153800000644
North DevonMarwood2015504058201730
North DevonNewport20151,91401,32201,2050
North DevonNorth Molton20159680003790
North DevonPilton20151,0302451,97401,02158
North DevonSouth Molton201597901,23605172,164
North DevonWitheridge201500003581,044
North DevonYeo Valley20155751801,546452454294

Devon NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North DevonBickington and Roundswell3,6871,0461147493472252662,747
North DevonBishop's Nympton1,51700002309011,131
North DevonBratton Fleming1,67243881001575701,246
North DevonBraunton East3,144892908690463312,345
North DevonBraunton West3,3151,3532818360002,470
North DevonCentral Town3,90076201,3250737822,906
North DevonChittlehampton1,890467001541506381,409
North DevonChulmleigh1,642628024219715601,223
North DevonCombe Martin3,1569020002651,1852,352
North DevonForches and Whiddon Valley3,67281601,32904761162,737
North DevonFremington3,449591004051811,3932,570
North DevonGeorgeham and Mortehoe3,0028810833052402,238
North DevonHeanton Punchardon2,1391,08200051201,594
North DevonIlfracombe Central3,59299527003266584292,678
North DevonIlfracombe East1,89242100009891,410
North DevonIlfracombe West3,727696179955409468712,778
North DevonInstow1,1785920002860878
North DevonLandkey, Swimbridge and Taw3,8421,356073725951202,864
North DevonLongbridge3,2551,301126706029302,426
North DevonLynton and Lynmouth1,3223660000620986
North DevonMarwood1,4914450514015301,112
North DevonNewport3,6971,1880820074802,756
North DevonNorth Molton1,75694100036801,309
North DevonPilton3,5256251491,1980620352,627
North DevonSouth Molton3,911583073603081,2882,915
North DevonWitheridge1,84400003511,0231,374
North DevonYeo Valley3,5214311351,1593393402202,624
 Total74,73819,7981,42513,0082,4369,1819,85755,705

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Devon NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North DevonBickington and Roundswell3,7391,2493431,0411011202,746
North DevonBishop's Nympton1,538489187424201101,131
North DevonBratton Fleming1,69564618238552901,247
North DevonBraunton East3,1881,03727498254702,345
North DevonBraunton West3,3611,244268933111402,470
North DevonCentral Town3,9559784091,437255702,906
North DevonChittlehampton1,916778165403412101,408
North DevonChulmleigh1,66568565390711201,223
North DevonCombe Martin3,2001,249260766383902,352
North DevonForches and Whiddon Valley3,7239534171,313193502,737
North DevonFremington3,4971,1294658121501402,570
North DevonGeorgeham and Mortehoe3,0441,16213089824702,239
North DevonHeanton Punchardon2,1691,02313840282301,594
North DevonIlfracombe Central3,6421,1715337951136502,677
North DevonIlfracombe East1,918649240471331601,409
North DevonIlfracombe West3,7799733801,1931805102,777
North DevonInstow1,194600572081130879
North DevonLandkey, Swimbridge and Taw3,8961,4702701,012704202,864
North DevonLongbridge3,3011,280244861261602,427
North DevonLynton and Lynmouth1,3415021193485120986
North DevonMarwood1,512556544924701,113
North DevonNewport3,7491,2732981,109235302,756
North DevonNorth Molton1,7819276428182901,309
North DevonPilton3,5749124021,247333302,627
North DevonSouth Molton3,9661,2344081,221312002,914
North DevonWitheridge1,870586235515231501,374
North DevonYeo Valley3,5707614571,2441431902,624
 Total74,73825,5167,06421,1831,189752055,705

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devon North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devon North.

Devon NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North DevonBickington and Roundswell3,7391,1643251,0421753902,745
North DevonBishop's Nympton1,538454177425522301,131
North DevonBratton Fleming1,695608172386404201,248
North DevonBraunton East3,188965260983677002,345
North DevonBraunton West3,3611,168254934763802,470
North DevonCentral Town3,9558883881,4381058702,906
North DevonChittlehampton1,916735156404783501,408
North DevonChulmleigh1,665647623911012301,224
North DevonCombe Martin3,2001,1772467671006202,352
North DevonForches and Whiddon Valley3,7238693951,314956302,736
North DevonFremington3,4971,0504418132254202,571
North DevonGeorgeham and Mortehoe3,0441,093123899576702,239
North DevonHeanton Punchardon2,169974131403493801,595
North DevonIlfracombe Central3,6421,0895057961929502,677
North DevonIlfracombe East1,918606227472733101,409
North DevonIlfracombe West3,7798873601,1942567902,776
North DevonInstow1,1945735420823210879
North DevonLandkey, Swimbridge and Taw3,8961,3822561,0131446902,864
North DevonLongbridge3,3011,205231862893902,426
North DevonLynton and Lynmouth1,34147211334831220986
North DevonMarwood1,51252251492311701,113
North DevonNewport3,7491,1882821,110958002,755
North DevonNorth Molton1,78188761282394101,310
North DevonPilton3,5748313811,2481066002,626
North DevonSouth Molton3,9661,1443871,2221115002,914
North DevonWitheridge1,870544223516623001,375
North DevonYeo Valley3,5706804331,2452184702,623
 Total74,73823,8026,69421,2072,6901,310055,703

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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