Devon West and Torridge: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Devon West and Torridge: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Geoffrey Cox  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 80,527
Turnout: 73.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,61256.5%52.8%
LAB12,92621.7%22.1%
LIB10,52617.7%17.7%
Green1,6222.7%3.2%
OTH7941.3%1.8%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
CON Majority20,68634.8%Pred Maj 30.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LAB
8%
LIB
3%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Devon West and Torridge : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devon West and Torridge constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right1° Right
National Position7° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education37%40%39%
Good Job43%50%51%
High SEC47%52%51%
Average Age53.650.548.5
ABC1 Class45%54%53%

Devon West and Torridge ranks #229 for "Leave", #252 for "Right" and #218 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devon West and Torridge: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Devon West and Torridge: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Devon West and Torridge

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Devon West and Torridge at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Devon West and Torridge. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Devon West and TorridgeActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
TorridgeAppledore20151,10500548426382
TorridgeBideford East20151,37870901,779561569
TorridgeBideford North20151,6911,15284301,313634
TorridgeBideford South20151,8792,031798000
TorridgeBroadheath2015-100000
TorridgeClinton20150000333618
TorridgeClovelly Bay2015000-100
TorridgeCoham Bridge20157030000368
TorridgeForest20156940003330
TorridgeHartland and Bradworthy20150005985671,114
TorridgeHolsworthy20152,01004646293710
TorridgeKenwith20156560029900
TorridgeMonkleigh and Littleham2015346000192410
TorridgeNortham20152,44776401,0620945
TorridgeOrchard Hill20155150050500
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree20159000002900
TorridgeTamarside201500000-1
TorridgeThree Moors20157050003350
TorridgeTorrington20151,52249601,5001,528986
TorridgeTwo Rivers2015-100000
TorridgeWaldon201500000999
TorridgeWestward Ho!2015528000311473
TorridgeWinkleigh201566401820152356
West DevonBere Ferrers20151,3114300504445738
West DevonBridestowe20151,084303004491,298
West DevonBuckland Monachorum20151,3750001,0421,107
West DevonBurrator20159040006211,720
West DevonDartmoor20156300003980
West DevonMary Tavy2015000001,001
West DevonMilton Ford20156690000423
West DevonTamarside20154050000649
West DevonTavistock North20151,877529007692,632
West DevonTavistock South East20152,0780005721,300
West DevonTavistock South West201575143670105540

Devon West and TorridgeTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
TorridgeAppledore2,276774003842982671,723
TorridgeBideford East4,8491,01252101,3074124183,670
TorridgeBideford North4,7061,06972853308304013,561
TorridgeBideford South4,3141,3031,4095530003,265
TorridgeBroadheath1,3811,045000001,045
TorridgeClinton1,2430000329611940
TorridgeClovelly Bay1,30500098800988
TorridgeCoham Bridge1,2596260000327953
TorridgeForest1,40171700034401,061
TorridgeHartland and Bradworthy2,4340004834589011,842
TorridgeHolsworthy3,1591,383031943325502,390
TorridgeKenwith1,39072300329001,052
TorridgeMonkleigh and Littleham1,137314000174372860
TorridgeNortham4,5041,599499069406173,409
TorridgeOrchard Hill1,2474770046700944
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree1,61992700029901,226
TorridgeTamarside1,384000001,0481,048
TorridgeThree Moors1,32568000032301,003
TorridgeTorrington4,61488128708688855713,492
TorridgeTwo Rivers1,3821,046000001,046
TorridgeWaldon1,365000001,0331,033
TorridgeWestward Ho!1,6925150003044621,281
TorridgeWinkleigh1,680624017101433341,272
West DevonBere Ferrers2,82781826803152784612,140
West DevonBridestowe2,221581163002416961,681
West DevonBuckland Monachorum3,0248930006777192,289
West DevonBurrator2,9236160004231,1732,212
West DevonDartmoor1,78582800052301,351
West DevonMary Tavy1,25300000948948
West DevonMilton Ford1,53271000004491,159
West DevonTamarside1,40140700006531,060
West DevonTavistock North4,016983277004031,3783,041
West DevonTavistock South East2,9311,1670003217302,218
West DevonTavistock South West3,003699406652051602,273
 Total78,58223,4174,5582,2286,2688,43614,56959,476

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Devon West and TorridgeEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
TorridgeAppledore2,3321,033305316050191,723
TorridgeBideford East4,9691,6961,154700088333,671
TorridgeBideford North4,8221,5211,0418260139353,562
TorridgeBideford South4,4211,3511,274604016203,265
TorridgeBroadheath1,41590255740861,045
TorridgeClinton1,27450617519404224941
TorridgeClovelly Bay1,3375162232300127988
TorridgeCoham Bridge1,2906861271200614953
TorridgeForest1,43676012212704381,060
TorridgeHartland and Bradworthy2,494920381411090401,842
TorridgeHolsworthy3,2371,563305471037142,390
TorridgeKenwith1,4247941171290661,052
TorridgeMonkleigh and Littleham1,16554611814303517859
TorridgeNortham4,6151,902895539039343,409
TorridgeOrchard Hill1,278609179143094944
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree1,65994110512904291,226
TorridgeTamarside1,41857621821305361,048
TorridgeThree Moors1,35873710611203991,003
TorridgeTorrington4,7281,6861,0196140131423,492
TorridgeTwo Rivers1,4168863795017101,045
TorridgeWaldon1,399562182233021351,033
TorridgeWestward Ho!1,734746216233062251,282
TorridgeWinkleigh1,722779170278029161,272
West DevonBere Ferrers2,8971,116584347062302,139
West DevonBridestowe2,2761,063304235052281,682
West DevonBuckland Monachorum3,0991,313458385097362,289
West DevonBurrator2,9951,172486432077442,211
West DevonDartmoor1,82990119617107491,351
West DevonMary Tavy1,28447421720302033947
West DevonMilton Ford1,570795189137017211,159
West DevonTamarside1,436608237169020271,061
West DevonTavistock North4,1151,553844500085583,040
West DevonTavistock South East3,0041,401367352067312,218
West DevonTavistock South West3,077996519661083142,273
 Total78,58233,61012,92510,52601,62079459,476

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devon West and Torridge

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devon West and Torridge.

Devon West and TorridgePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
TorridgeAppledore2,3329683123164159271,723
TorridgeBideford East4,9691,5581,16870087107503,670
TorridgeBideford North4,8221,3871,05582685157523,562
TorridgeBideford South4,4211,2281,2876047833353,265
TorridgeBroadheath1,41586359742513111,045
TorridgeClinton1,274471179194224728941
TorridgeClovelly Bay1,337479227230231712988
TorridgeCoham Bridge1,290650131120231118953
TorridgeForest1,4367201261272548131,059
TorridgeHartland and Bradworthy2,49485138841144100491,843
TorridgeHolsworthy3,2371,4733144715749252,389
TorridgeKenwith1,4247541211292511111,051
TorridgeMonkleigh and Littleham1,165514121143203921858
TorridgeNortham4,6151,7749085398157503,409
TorridgeOrchard Hill1,27857418314322148944
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree1,6598951101292948151,226
TorridgeTamarside1,4185372222132510411,048
TorridgeThree Moors1,3586991101122444141,003
TorridgeTorrington4,7281,5551,03361483149583,492
TorridgeTwo Rivers1,41684741952522151,045
TorridgeWaldon1,3995231862332526401,033
TorridgeWestward Ho!1,7346982212333069311,282
TorridgeWinkleigh1,7227311752783036221,272
West DevonBere Ferrers2,8971,0365923475173402,139
West DevonBridestowe2,2761,0003112354061361,683
West DevonBuckland Monachorum3,0991,22746738554109472,289
West DevonBurrator2,9951,0894954325388542,211
West DevonDartmoor1,8298502011713281151,350
West DevonMary Tavy1,284438221203222537946
West DevonMilton Ford1,5707511941372823261,159
West DevonTamarside1,4365682411692525321,060
West DevonTavistock North4,1151,43985650072101723,040
West DevonTavistock South East3,0041,3183763525378412,218
West DevonTavistock South West3,0779115286615495252,274
 Total78,58231,37613,15910,5261,4131,9251,07159,470

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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