Dorset North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Dorset North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Simon Hoare  (CON)
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
Electorate: 76,385
Turnout: 73.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,16964.9%61.9%
LAB10,39218.6%17.6%
LIB7,55613.6%13.6%
Green1,6072.9%4.0%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
CON Majority25,77746.3%Pred Maj 44.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Dorset North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dorset North constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right1° Right
National Position7° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education40%40%39%
Good Job51%50%51%
High SEC55%52%51%
Average Age52.650.548.5
ABC1 Class54%54%53%

Dorset North ranks #240 for "Leave", #146 for "Right" and #198 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dorset North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Dorset North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Dorset North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Dorset North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Dorset North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Dorset NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East DorsetAlderholt20151,133003383320
East DorsetCrane2015-100000
East DorsetHandley Vale2015-100000
East DorsetSt Leonards20159,766004,17800
East DorsetStour20159440000608
East DorsetVerwood East2015-200000
East DorsetVerwood West201500000-2
East DorsetWest Moors and Holt20157,40061003,4086371,157
North DorsetAbbey20152,9140008570
North DorsetBlackmore20152,523006364710
North DorsetBlandford Central20151,0633488420373931
North DorsetBlandford Hilltop201552823902331160
North DorsetBlandford Langton St Leonards2015407172491000
North DorsetBlandford Old Town20154820412000
North DorsetBulbarrow20157870003870
North DorsetGillingham Rural20152,988095700369
North DorsetGillingham Town20153,5851,2682,09207440
North DorsetHill Forts20155,98672001,0461,0700
North DorsetLower Tarrants2015626002541630
North DorsetLydden Vale20159180002720
North DorsetMotcombe and Bourton20153,1710008080
North DorsetRiversdale and Portman20152,00439505975450
North DorsetShaftesbury East20151,56036905430767
North DorsetShaftesbury West20151,3142441,229367428321
North DorsetSturminster Newton20152,457080005450
North DorsetThe Beacon2015-100000
North DorsetThe Stours and Marnhull20152,769001,1026100

Dorset NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DorsetAlderholt2,4721,1610034634001,847
East DorsetCrane2,5571,911000001,911
East DorsetHandley Vale2,2191,658000001,658
East DorsetSt Leonards1,2106330027100904
East DorsetStour1,96389200005751,467
East DorsetVerwood East4,5173,375000003,375
East DorsetVerwood West5,196000003,8833,883
East DorsetWest Moors and Holt1,0324323601993768772
North DorsetAbbey3,0131,74000051202,252
North DorsetBlackmore2,7891,4480036527002,083
North DorsetBlandford Central3,22372023657002536302,409
North DorsetBlandford Hilltop1,664588266026012901,243
North DorsetBlandford Langton St Leonards1,5114291815180001,128
North DorsetBlandford Old Town1,56062805370001,165
North DorsetBulbarrow1,51475800037301,131
North DorsetGillingham Rural3,2201,6670534002062,407
North DorsetGillingham Town4,8311,683595982034903,609
North DorsetHill Forts5,1692,621315045846803,862
North DorsetLower Tarrants2,5451,1410046329701,901
North DorsetLydden Vale1,48985800025401,112
North DorsetMotcombe and Bourton3,5192,09600053402,630
North DorsetRiversdale and Portman3,2301,366269040737102,413
North DorsetShaftesbury East2,668960227033404721,993
North DorsetShaftesbury West3,0467661427172142501872,276
North DorsetSturminster Newton3,3301,6080524035702,489
North DorsetThe Beacon1,7561,312000001,312
North DorsetThe Stours and Marnhull3,3321,5390061233902,490
 Total74,57533,9902,2674,3823,9295,1336,02155,722

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Dorset NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DorsetAlderholt2,5321,23235319606501,846
East DorsetCrane2,6191,63913611002701,912
East DorsetHandley Vale2,2731,38611913102201,658
East DorsetSt Leonards1,23969514163040903
East DorsetStour2,0111,01028115402201,467
East DorsetVerwood East4,6272,79132224401903,376
East DorsetVerwood West5,3221,7831,43564402103,883
East DorsetWest Moors and Holt1,057523167720100772
North DorsetAbbey3,0861,677318136012002,251
North DorsetBlackmore2,8571,48634818106902,084
North DorsetBlandford Central3,3011,02269260209202,408
North DorsetBlandford Hilltop1,70470637112903601,242
North DorsetBlandford Langton St Leonards1,54855918037101901,129
North DorsetBlandford Old Town1,59862813037403401,166
North DorsetBulbarrow1,55175020010607401,130
North DorsetGillingham Rural3,2981,62228347902102,405
North DorsetGillingham Town4,9481,90182879408603,609
North DorsetHill Forts5,2942,670714318016103,863
North DorsetLower Tarrants2,6071,34829417508501,902
North DorsetLydden Vale1,5258601117406801,113
North DorsetMotcombe and Bourton3,6041,926386181013702,630
North DorsetRiversdale and Portman3,3081,44860228108202,413
North DorsetShaftesbury East2,7331,05961730001701,993
North DorsetShaftesbury West3,1201,052460664010102,277
North DorsetSturminster Newton3,4111,58136045509302,489
North DorsetThe Beacon1,7991,1181057501401,312
North DorsetThe Stours and Marnhull3,4131,696440246010802,490
 Total74,57536,16810,3937,55501,607055,722

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dorset North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dorset North.

Dorset NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DorsetAlderholt2,5321,176330197568701,846
East DorsetCrane2,6191,581127111474501,911
East DorsetHandley Vale2,2731,336111132413801,658
East DorsetSt Leonards1,2396681326326140903
East DorsetStour2,011965263155443901,466
East DorsetVerwood East4,6272,689301246885303,377
East DorsetVerwood West5,3221,6651,3856461196703,882
East DorsetWest Moors and Holt1,0575001577224190772
North DorsetAbbey3,0861,6092981376314402,251
North DorsetBlackmore2,8571,423326182619302,085
North DorsetBlandford Central3,3019496616037412102,408
North DorsetBlandford Hilltop1,704668355130385101,242
North DorsetBlandford Langton St Leonards1,548525169372333201,131
North DorsetBlandford Old Town1,598593122375314601,167
North DorsetBulbarrow1,551716187107338701,130
North DorsetGillingham Rural3,2981,549265480654602,405
North DorsetGillingham Town4,9481,79178279611112903,609
North DorsetHill Forts5,2942,55366832011620603,863
North DorsetLower Tarrants2,6071,2902751765410601,901
North DorsetLydden Vale1,52582610475297901,113
North DorsetMotcombe and Bourton3,6041,8463611827416602,629
North DorsetRiversdale and Portman3,3081,3755712827411102,413
North DorsetShaftesbury East2,733999592301614101,994
North DorsetShaftesbury West3,1209834316657012802,277
North DorsetSturminster Newton3,4111,5053374567012002,488
North DorsetThe Beacon1,7991,0789876332701,312
North DorsetThe Stours and Marnhull3,4131,6204122477413702,490
 Total74,57534,4789,8207,5841,6092,232055,723

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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