Dorset South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Dorset South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Richard Drax  (CON)
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
Electorate: 72,323
Turnout: 71.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,13556.1%53.1%
LAB17,44033.6%32.5%
LIB3,0535.9%5.9%
Green2,2784.4%5.5%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
CON Majority11,69522.5%Pred Maj 20.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
84%
LAB
16%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Dorset South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dorset South constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Right
National Position6° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education37%40%39%
Good Job47%50%51%
High SEC51%52%51%
Average Age52.250.548.5
ABC1 Class49%54%53%

Dorset South ranks #159 for "Leave", #330 for "Right" and #231 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dorset South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Dorset South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Dorset South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Dorset South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Dorset South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Dorset SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
PurbeckCastle2015401142000532
PurbeckCreech Barrow20158802630000
PurbeckLangton2015630117002200
PurbeckLulworth and Winfrith2015533196024400
PurbeckSwanage North20154,2381,3245570416427
PurbeckSwanage South20153,5981,81876701,0780
PurbeckWool20154,3741,2662,24904790
West DorsetBroadmayne and Crossways20151,6162741,0760280168
West DorsetPuddletown201589322030001500
Weymouth and PortlandLittlemoor2014146474022400
Weymouth and PortlandMelcombe Regis20158587042885452510
Weymouth and PortlandPreston20152,007588817000
Weymouth and PortlandRadipole201566242858931700
Weymouth and PortlandTophill East201550638300210574
Weymouth and PortlandTophill West20156065610520166579
Weymouth and PortlandUnderhill20144730031900
Weymouth and PortlandUpwey and Broadwey20151,056634003420
Weymouth and PortlandWestham East2014228367275000
Weymouth and PortlandWestham North20157808371,007000
Weymouth and PortlandWestham West2015617673532000
Weymouth and PortlandWey Valley20151,326480003390
Weymouth and PortlandWeymouth East201566633802575010
Weymouth and PortlandWeymouth West20151,231934006240
Weymouth and PortlandWyke Regis20151,0379210549221221

Dorset SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PurbeckCastle1,384372132000494998
PurbeckCreech Barrow1,39077223100001,003
PurbeckLangton1,186557103001950855
PurbeckLulworth and Winfrith1,382546201025000997
PurbeckSwanage North3,5671,56648920601541582,573
PurbeckSwanage South3,9551,413714301042302,851
PurbeckWool5,1831,9545661,005021403,739
West DorsetBroadmayne and Crossways2,7979551626360165992,017
West DorsetPuddletown1948020270130140
Weymouth and PortlandLittlemoor2,9033621,1760556002,094
Weymouth and PortlandMelcombe Regis4,6081,07888436268431503,323
Weymouth and PortlandPreston3,8031,6134736570002,743
Weymouth and PortlandRadipole2,929701453623335002,112
Weymouth and PortlandTophill East2,874627475002607112,073
Weymouth and PortlandTophill West4,04872767306241996952,918
Weymouth and PortlandUnderhill3,1311,34900909002,258
Weymouth and PortlandUpwey and Broadwey2,8121,0546330034102,028
Weymouth and PortlandWestham East3,0095699156860002,170
Weymouth and PortlandWestham North4,0708739361,1260002,935
Weymouth and PortlandWestham West2,8126877495920002,028
Weymouth and PortlandWey Valley2,6731,1924310030501,928
Weymouth and PortlandWeymouth East2,842775393029958302,050
Weymouth and PortlandWeymouth West4,0421,2879760065202,915
Weymouth and PortlandWyke Regis4,3791,11198605882372373,159
 Total71,97322,22012,7716,2214,2454,0562,39451,907

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Dorset SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PurbeckCastle1,391637307320220998
PurbeckCreech Barrow1,3977072491603101,003
PurbeckLangton1,192584161230860854
PurbeckLulworth and Winfrith1,389693242470150997
PurbeckSwanage North3,5841,671608182011102,572
PurbeckSwanage South3,9741,588808238021702,851
PurbeckWool5,2082,401839375012403,739
West DorsetBroadmayne and Crossways2,8111,27040626707402,017
West DorsetPuddletown195912813070139
Weymouth and PortlandLittlemoor2,9177691,2375003802,094
Weymouth and PortlandMelcombe Regis4,6301,7121,223201018803,324
Weymouth and PortlandPreston3,8211,86961222703502,743
Weymouth and PortlandRadipole2,9431,11474421004502,113
Weymouth and PortlandTophill East2,8881,09584629010302,073
Weymouth and PortlandTophill West4,0681,5841,1816608702,918
Weymouth and PortlandUnderhill3,1461,5046365306502,258
Weymouth and PortlandUpwey and Broadwey2,8261,10074544013902,028
Weymouth and PortlandWestham East3,0248721,00123806002,171
Weymouth and PortlandWestham North4,0901,3331,18834307102,935
Weymouth and PortlandWestham West2,82692288218304102,028
Weymouth and PortlandWey Valley2,6861,24753230012001,929
Weymouth and PortlandWeymouth East2,8561,14059982022802,049
Weymouth and PortlandWeymouth West4,0621,5531,06556024102,915
Weymouth and PortlandWyke Regis4,4001,6791,30247012903,157
 Total71,97329,13517,4413,05202,277051,907

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dorset South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dorset South.

Dorset SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PurbeckCastle1,3916072963329330998
PurbeckCreech Barrow1,39767723817304201,004
PurbeckLangton1,1925581522325960854
PurbeckLulworth and Winfrith1,3896632314829260997
PurbeckSwanage North3,5841,5935801837614002,572
PurbeckSwanage South3,9741,5017772408424902,851
PurbeckWool5,2082,28779837711016703,739
West DorsetBroadmayne and Crossways2,8111,209384268599702,017
West DorsetPuddletown195872613490139
Weymouth and PortlandLittlemoor2,9177051,21451626202,094
Weymouth and PortlandMelcombe Regis4,6301,6111,1862039822603,324
Weymouth and PortlandPreston3,8211,786582228816602,743
Weymouth and PortlandRadipole2,9431,050721211626902,113
Weymouth and PortlandTophill East2,8881,032823306112702,073
Weymouth and PortlandTophill West4,0681,4951,149688612002,918
Weymouth and PortlandUnderhill3,1461,43561154669102,257
Weymouth and PortlandUpwey and Broadwey2,8261,038723456016202,028
Weymouth and PortlandWestham East3,024806977239648502,171
Weymouth and PortlandWestham North4,0901,2441,1563458610402,935
Weymouth and PortlandWestham West2,826860860184606402,028
Weymouth and PortlandWey Valley2,6861,188511315714201,929
Weymouth and PortlandWeymouth East2,8561,078576836025102,048
Weymouth and PortlandWeymouth West4,0621,4641,033588627402,915
Weymouth and PortlandWyke Regis4,4001,5831,267499316503,157
 Total71,97327,55716,8713,0811,5282,867051,904

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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